#1962 Postby Brent » Fri Jan 31, 2020 5:16 pm
FWD AFD
As the front slides southward through the day there
should be a gradual transition from convective to more stratiform
precipitation. Colder air will quickly dive southward, initially
across western North Texas and into the Big Country. Low level
thermal profiles suggest that there may be some lingering WAA atop
the colder air surface and this could result in winter
precipitation across the aformentioned geographic region before
dry air shuts of precipitation. I`ll maintain a mention of winter
precipitation (Snow/Sleet/Rain) in the grids, but this risk will
be confined to areas near and northwest of an Eastland to Bowie
line. Areas southwest of this line should see a predominantly
cold rain. At this time, substantial impacts are not expected,
though there are some caveats that are discussed below. Regardless,
Wednesday will be much colder with highs in the 40s and 50s.
Breezy north winds of 10 to 20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH appear
probable as well.
It should be noted the above scenario loosely fits some of our
winter weather patterns across North and Central Texas. Outside of
the progression of colder air southward, we`ll be watching the
evolution of the upper trough. On one hand, if the upper trough
quickly scoots eastward, it`s likely that we`ll see an end to
precip before the colder air invades. If this upper level trough
detaches and completely closes off, there could be additional lift
which would generate additional precipitation as colder air
filters southward. In addition, there would be an added dynamic
cooling component to the equation which would support more winter
precipitation over a larger area of North and Central Texas. At
this time, no need to panic or alter plans next week...just
monitor.
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