Texas Winter 2013-2014

[TeamPlayersBlue]

[ronyan]

A 1050mb high crashing down the plains is just what the doctor ordered for Christmas (imo).

Too bad it will probably disappear from the models before we get to that time.

[Texas Snowman]

@RyanMaue: Still crunching numbers, but last 6-days average CONUS temp was 20.8°F -- which is 14.0°F below normal -- coldest at least since 1979.

[Ntxw]

I wish that ridge would move off of the East coast. I am hoping for a cold Christmas and a possible White Christmas in NYC.

Pay attention to the NAO, probably need it to start crashing in order to get a sustained snow cover for the Holidays up there.

Have to agree here. The NAO has been of no use for the southeast. The AO is expected to rise precipitously again which will allow the SE ridge to once again poke up the east coast after this current cold blast. Climo up there can still allow snow and some cold but nothing sustaining without a -NAO or -AO.

Coldest air over the hemisphere is still in North America and remains that way. It's just one of those years!

[dhweather]

"In the plains, days 10-15, could be just as brutal as what we just went through." - Joe B in his atmospheric avenger this morning.

[Portastorm]

:uarrow: Unless the Pacific Ridge pokes up into Alaska, I wouldn't expect this outbreak to be anything historic. This is due to flow coming out of Alaska where temps have been near or above normal, instead of straight out of the Arctic like this last outbreak. Cold will build in Canada but I wouldn't expect any 83 or 89 type stuff.

Well that is sort of the $64,000 question at this point isn't it? Will the ridge in the NE Pacific hook up with the ridging in Siberia ... just like what we went through. We will definitely have to watch for that.

[orangeblood]

The GFS ensembles are going crazy with the next Arctic outbreak starting the weekend before Christmas. Below is the mean Temperature forecast in the 10-11 day range, its showing off the chart cold anomalies funneling directly down into the central plains. If this is the mean, can you imagine what some of the extreme members are depicting ? ?? Yikes

[wxman57]

I would like to file a protest against Canada and its inability to control the transport of cold air into our country. The one bright spot I can see is the highs (and lows) in the 70s before the big plunge near Christmas. My only hope is that the 15-day GFS won't verify, which usually can be counted upon.

[Ntxw]

The European thus far has been lackluster with the NE PAC ridge, not today. Some 590+ dm's centered in the gulf of Alaska and west coast.





Regardless follow the ensembles they have foreseen it long before

[Tireman4]

I would like to file a protest against Canada and its inability to control the transport of cold air into our country. The one bright spot I can see is the highs (and lows) in the 70s before the big plunge near Christmas. My only hope is that the 15-day GFS won't verify, which usually can be counted upon.

Oh my gosh. Oh my gosh. IF it verifies...oh my gosh...that is some bitter cold....dadgum...Your protest is filed. They said....too bad....

[Texas Snowman]

@BigJoeBastardi: Christmas in US may be coldest since 1989, ranking 3rd coldest in last 50years behind 1989 and 1983. 7 pm GFS temps http://t.co/wKrMZeljj7

[Snowman67]

I would like to file a protest against Canada and its inability to control the transport of cold air into our country. The one bright spot I can see is the highs (and lows) in the 70s before the big plunge near Christmas. My only hope is that the 15-day GFS won't verify, which usually can be counted upon.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfsx12zdec10.gif

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/dfwgfsx12zdec10.gif

Look at that 40 degree + drop in 12 hrs on the Houston meteogram. If that were to verify, 57 may go into hibernation...

[Texas Snowman]

That's an eyebrow raiser for sure...

Both the Bastardi tweet and the graphic.

[Ntxw]

Sorry but this was worth posting again! Phase I complete lets see what phase II does. Activity continues to stir at the PWC offices.

:uarrow: Just how many hours below freezing could we be seeing here in North Texas?
I've been hearing about 1983 and 1989 but those outbreaks were extreme.

That's probably too extreme for this first outbreak of cold. Something more like Christmas week last year or maybe a Feb 2011 (if there is snow cover) if things line up right. Beyond that is still to be determined.

If you can recall, December 1989 had an outbreak of cold before the big one about the first two weeks, it did not all come at once. In it's own right that was a strong cold snap on it's own. The coming cold is comparable to that first one.

[orangeblood]

PWC might be distracted at the moment by the news that Mack Brown is stepping down as coach of the University of Texas

[Portastorm]

:uarrow: PWC might be distracted at the moment by the news that Mack Brown is stepping down as coach of the University of Texas

Conversation overhead in the University of Alabama athletics office just moments ago:

"Mr. Saban, you have a phone call waiting."
"Who is it?"
"The caller says he's the lead meteorologist with the Portastorm Weather Center. He says if you want snow, you got snow!"
"Ok, tell him I'll be right there."

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Ok quick meteorology lesson time. We have talked about how the warm water in the Gulf of Alaska is 'pumping up' this ridge, but dynamically how is this causing the ridge to form so often? Warmer air promotes rising air at the surface so wouldnt it be lower pressures there? Just an example of my though. Basically i want to know if its the chicken or the egg Thanks in advance.

[Meteorcane]

Ok quick meteorology lesson time. We have talked about how the warm water in the Gulf of Alaska is 'pumping up' this ridge, but dynamically how is this causing the ridge to form so often? Warmer air promotes rising air at the surface so wouldnt it be lower pressures there? Just an example of my though. Basically i want to know if its the chicken or the egg Thanks in advance.

You are generally correct for lower levels ie. warming can lead to lower surface pressures (think of monsoon lows). However, the low level warming causes the column to expand, and at upper levels a local height maximum is obtained (note this can be visualized as high pressure on a constant height surface, if you don't like isobaric surfaces), this height maximum leads to upper level divergence, and occasionally even an ULAC (mainly in very strong warm core systems such as tropical cyclone), and due to mass continuity the UL divergence leads to pressure falls at the surface. Rising air can also cool the column (adiabatically), but if sufficient water vapor is present (as is generally the case over warm water) this can be negated through latent heat release (this is truly the origin of the "pumping the ridge" term.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

:uarrow: PWC might be distracted at the moment by the news that Mack Brown is stepping down as coach of the University of Texas

Conversation overhead in the University of Alabama athletics office just moments ago:

"Mr. Saban, you have a phone call waiting."
"Who is it?"
"The caller says he's the lead meteorologist with the Portastorm Weather Center. He says if you want snow, you got snow!"
"Ok, tell him I'll be right there."

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

It maybe time for good will to prevail here with our heat loving friend from Houston. Anybody want to chip in buy Wxman57 something like this to help him get through the next few weeks?