Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[Snowman67]

I was 7 years old in 1989 and remember the week of Christmas/New Years vividly. It was really my first real experience with Winter and I thought all winters would be like that going forward. Boy, the 90s were a real disappointment.

Ever since I was 5, I wanted to be a Pro Met. I used to draw up maps at a very young age for my parents and Grandparents and even invited local weather guys to my school in Longview. I've always had a strong love for weather, particularly Winter Weather and Severe Weather.

When I got to A&M, I got into some other fun things that gave me plentiful opportunities.... The Financial and Energy Industry.

I still try to find myself in situations where I can go experience unique blizzards, noreasters or tornado outbreaks when I get a chance.

We sound like twins, only I was 22 in 1989 and was in Waco (Baylor grad) for the 1989 event. My wife thinks I'm crazy. I still take long road trips to get into winter and severe weather. Guess it's just in my blood

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I was 7 years old in 1989 and remember the week of Christmas/New Years vividly. It was really my first real experience with Winter and I thought all winters would be like that going forward. Boy, the 90s were a real disappointment.

Ever since I was 5, I wanted to be a Pro Met. I used to draw up maps at a very young age for my parents and Grandparents and even invited local weather guys to my school in Longview. I've always had a strong love for weather, particularly Winter Weather and Severe Weather.

When I got to A&M, I got into some other fun things that gave me plentiful opportunities.... The Financial and Energy Industry.

I still try to find myself in situations where I can go experience unique blizzards, noreasters or tornado outbreaks when I get a chance.

We sound like twins, only I was 22 in 1989 and was in Waco (Baylor grad) for the 1989 event. My wife thinks I'm crazy. I still take long road trips to get into winter and severe weather. Guess it's just in my blood

My wife thinks I'm nuts too, especially when I want to stay for Hurricanes (drive to Galveston for Ike). Have you ever planned a trip to the north slope in Alaska during February? Yeah, I wanted to experience -50F and ice fishing.

[srainhoutx]

Kids. I was working trying to get water out of frozen fire hydrants from all the fires in '83 and '89...

[ThunderSleetDreams]

:lol: Kids. I was working trying to get water out of frozen fire hydrants from all the fires in '83 and '89...

You da man Grandpa!

[gpsnowman]

What is the latest on the mid month cold? Any new info? Need some positive news before I boogie to start my day.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

What is the latest on the mid month cold? Any new info? Need some positive news before I boogie to start my day.

GFS 240 hours out is showing some nice invasion of cold air due south. By 300 hours (1/18) we are seeing cold air across Texas and models show winter weather in the area. Now, do I believe the wintry precip will come to fruition? Doubt it, but I do think we will see a cold end to January.

[wxman57]

A key factor with respect to any cold air coming down the Plains later this month.

[gpsnowman]

That is one of the ugliest maps I have ever seen in my life!
The no snow area is very close to Calgary and Edmonton if I am not mistaken. Unbelievable.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

There will be snow later this month across the plains... I guarantee it.

[Snowman67]

I was 7 years old in 1989 and remember the week of Christmas/New Years vividly. It was really my first real experience with Winter and I thought all winters would be like that going forward. Boy, the 90s were a real disappointment.

Ever since I was 5, I wanted to be a Pro Met. I used to draw up maps at a very young age for my parents and Grandparents and even invited local weather guys to my school in Longview. I've always had a strong love for weather, particularly Winter Weather and Severe Weather.

When I got to A&M, I got into some other fun things that gave me plentiful opportunities.... The Financial and Energy Industry.

I still try to find myself in situations where I can go experience unique blizzards, noreasters or tornado outbreaks when I get a chance.

I didnt have to chase Ike- it deposited a big bull pine tree through my roof.

We sound like twins, only I was 22 in 1989 and was in Waco (Baylor grad) for the 1989 event. My wife thinks I'm crazy. I still take long road trips to get into winter and severe weather. Guess it's just in my blood

My wife thinks I'm nuts too, especially when I want to stay for Hurricanes (drive to Galveston for Ike). Have you ever planned a trip to the north slope in Alaska during February? Yeah, I wanted to experience -50F and ice fishing.

[Texas Snowman]

Speaking of snow cover, saw this tweet earlier today from The Weather Channel:

"As of this AM only 16% of the U.S. was covered by snow. Last year this time it was at 45%. Jan. 12, 2011 it was 70.9 percent!!!!"

So even though it's bleak looking today, it can change in a relatively short period of time.

[Portastorm]

A key factor with respect to any cold air coming down the Plains later this month.
http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/ ... scover.gif

A valid point only if the snow cover remains that sparse if/when Arctic air comes south. This far out, a dicey proposition.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

In response to the lack of snowfall map, the 06z looks to be taking this into effect already, the air begins to modify even before it crosses the US/Canada border.

[Portastorm]

The 12z GFS run shows a stout cold front next week (Thurs-Fri) into Texas but in the later periods it has backed off entirely from any Arctic or polar airmass heading south into the Plains.

Given the inconsistencies between the 12z-6z-0z runs ... I think the GFS is struggling with the pattern. I'll be curious to see how the 12z Euro and CMC runs look.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

The 12z GFS run shows a stout cold front next week (Thurs-Fri) into Texas but in the later periods it has backed off entirely from any Arctic or polar airmass heading south into the Plains.

Given the inconsistencies between the 12z-6z-0z runs ... I think the GFS is struggling with the pattern. I'll be curious to see how the 12z Euro and CMC runs look.

Canadian is showing a strong cold front right smack into Texas.

[Portastorm]

The 12z GFS run shows a stout cold front next week (Thurs-Fri) into Texas but in the later periods it has backed off entirely from any Arctic or polar airmass heading south into the Plains.

Given the inconsistencies between the 12z-6z-0z runs ... I think the GFS is struggling with the pattern. I'll be curious to see how the 12z Euro and CMC runs look.

Canadian is showing a strong cold front right smack into Texas.

Wow! It sure is ... AND ... it looks (check out from hour 132 and beyond) to include some kind of light snow event for portions of west-central-southeast Texas, if I'm reading this map right!

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

[Ptarmigan]

December 1983
ENSO
Neutral (Came off of El Nino)

PDO
Warm

NAO
0.3
Positive

AO
0.186
Positive

PNA
-0.31
Negative


December 1989
ENSO
Neutral (Came off of La Nina)

PDO
Slight Cool

NAO
-3.4
Negative

AO
-0.644
Negative

PNA
0.87
Positive

December 1983 Freeze
http://arkansasweather.blogspot.com/201 ... break.html

December 1989 Freeze
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/events/Dec1989/

[Rgv20]

The 12z GFS run shows a stout cold front next week (Thurs-Fri) into Texas but in the later periods it has backed off entirely from any Arctic or polar airmass heading south into the Plains.

Given the inconsistencies between the 12z-6z-0z runs ... I think the GFS is struggling with the pattern. I'll be curious to see how the 12z Euro and CMC runs look.

Yeap the operational GFS has been flip flopping like there is no tomorrow haha. The Ensembles tho have been rather steady with the pattern shaping up in the longer range which could be on the cool side.

As for the 12zCMC I think it confused Texas for Canada!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

The 12z GFS run shows a stout cold front next week (Thurs-Fri) into Texas but in the later periods it has backed off entirely from any Arctic or polar airmass heading south into the Plains.

Given the inconsistencies between the 12z-6z-0z runs ... I think the GFS is struggling with the pattern. I'll be curious to see how the 12z Euro and CMC runs look.

Canadian is showing a strong cold front right smack into Texas.

Wow! It sure is ... AND ... it looks (check out from hour 132 and beyond) to include some kind of light snow event for portions of west-central-southeast Texas, if I'm reading this map right!

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

Yep, that is frozen precip right there ladies and Gentlemen.

[Palmer divide shadow]

What about the dec 1990 cold wave near xmas.it was a big one also.I remember it being 80that day, then the front moved thru and iah dropped to 16 the very next morning.it would have been much colder but we were socked in the clouds unlike 89