Texas winter wx thread#5 - big changes on the way eventually

[Tireman4]

Our local mets are telling us to go play golf the holiday weekend. LOL.

[KatDaddy]

This upcoming Winter event is looking darn right scary as the models go. If some of the latest runs materialize TX will be in for a disaster. 2 days of heavy freezing rain and sleet will create unmaginable damage and knock power out for than a month. It would be a crippling event. I would rather see a massive snowfall than damaging ice.

[Tireman4]

I agree with you KatDaddy. When I lived in Raleigh, North Carolina, they expericenced one of the worst ice storms imaginable.
February 16, 1987 -

a massive ice storm struck Kentucky, Virginia, and the Carolinas. In some areas, ice accumulations reached 3 inches. Across south central Kentucky, 16,000 people were without power for 3 days, making this the worst ice storm in 35 years for the area. In North Carolina, 5 inches of sleet fell at Raleigh and up to 8 inches was reported in Person and Granville counties. Roadways were made impassable due to the thick coating of ice.

That was my first taste of winter. Me, being from Houston, moving to North Carolina and one month later...boom. It started sleeting at 10 am and did not stop until midnight. The city was paralyzed for a week. I just hope that does not happen here. Goodness.

[wxman57]

This upcoming Winter event is looking darn right scary as the models go. If some of the latest runs materialize TX will be in for a disaster. 2 days of heavy freezing rain and sleet will create unmaginable damage and knock power out for than a month. It would be a crippling event. I would rather see a massive snowfall than damaging ice.

I agree, that's a possibility. Crippling ice storm over central to SE TX. For now, I see it as one possible scenario. Not probable, yet. Stay tuned!

[azsnowman]

I have to admit it....I've only seen one ice storm in my life and it SUCKED, I HOPE to HADES y'all don't get one We don't get ice storms up this high...only SNOW

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.oznet.ksu.edu/karl/Images/ag ... 0Storm.JPG

http://ipm.ncsu.edu/current_ipm/damage.jpg

http://www.noble.org/Press_Release/Ag/I ... 00/796.jpg

Yeah, I couldn't even imagine seeing scenes like the ones I posted above in Houston. Of course, something like that is probably the worst case scenario, but if the models/mets are right, then it seems possible that we could see a significant ice storm like that (though as wxman57 pointed out, it is not "probable" just yet, only a possibility). Just imagine how long the clean up from a storm like that would take! It would be like hurricane damage. Let's hope the worst case can be avoided this time.

Also, for those interested, here are a few good websites that show what ice storms can do to different kinds of trees. These may be good links in helping you decide what kind of damage you could be looking at if an ice storm does become more likely:

http://www.noble.org/Press_Release/Ag/IceDamage2000/

http://redcross.tallytown.com/library/TreesAndIceStorms.pdf

[JenBayles]

Ugh! The trees hit hardest in Houston are the pines and live oaks since they still have foliage to hold the weight of the ice. I've seen some gorgeous, ancient live oak trees with all branches snapped off at the trunk line, and even uprooted because of the weight. Not a whole lot you can do about it either.

For smaller shrubs, etc., ice is a real life saver in a hard freeze since it acts as an insulator. Don't worry about covering the azaleas - the ice does a far better job than sheets.

After 26 years in Houston, I've learned to stay HOME if we get ice. Far better to watch the Destruction Derby on TV than experience it up close & personal. It took Dave years for me to get it thru his head that 4WD does NO good on ice.

[Extremeweatherguy]

lol. These MSN forecasts continue to get more interesting/funny...

http://weather.msn.com/tenday.aspx?weal ... c:USTX1290

I am not quite sure who makes them (whether human or computer), but they certainly are entertaining to look at. The latest update has sleet for Monday turning to snow for Tuesday with highs hovering in the low to mid 30s and lows in the low to mid 20s. I, for one, actually hope MSN is right about this...I would much rather see sleet/snow than ice.

[wxman57]

:lol: lol. These MSN forecasts continue to get more interesting/funny...

http://weather.msn.com/tenday.aspx?weal ... c:USTX1290

I am not quite sure who makes them (whether human or computer), but they certainly are entertaining to look at. The latest update has sleet for Monday turning to snow for Tuesday with highs hovering in the low to mid 30s and lows in the low to mid 20s. I, for one, actually hope MSN is right about this...I would much rather see sleet/snow than ice.

I doubt any meteorologist makes those forecasts. I'm sure it's computer-model driven with no human intervention. Probably reflects the 18Z GFS idea.

[GeneratorPower]

wxman57, what about further east towards North Mississippi/AL/GA/NC? Might this possible event progress towards the east?

[wxman57]

wxman57, what about further east towards North Mississippi/AL/GA/NC? Might this possible event progress towards the east?

It'll be harder to get freezing/frozen precip near the coast the farther east you go. But there could be a problem with freezing/frozen precip along the I-20 corridor from northern LA through MS/AL.

[GeneratorPower]

I've noticed our guys beginning to take note of it a bit. We're in far northern Alabama near the TN state line.

NWS Huntsville, AL 3pm Discussion

THE TYPICAL UNCERTAINTIES WITH
TIMING AND STRENGTH STILL EXIST WITH THIS FRONTAL APPROACH...BUT
THE OVERALL CONSENSUS SHOWS A SHALLOW COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A MORE ORGANIZED AND POTENTIALLY HEAVIER AREA OF PCPN...GIVEN
THE ENHANCED H85 FLOW...STRONG THETA-E RIDGING...AND SUSTAINED
MOISTURE ADVECTION/HIGH PW VALUES PRECEDING THE FROPA. THE SHALLOW
COLD AIRMASS WILL BEING TO FILTER IN TOWARD SUNDAY NGT AND
MONDAY...WHILE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS SETUP COULD LEAD TO SOME WEAK OVERRUNNING...SO
WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A LOW PCPN CHANCE INTO MONDAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...STILL A BIT EARLY TO PROPERLY DETERMINE THE STRENGTH
OF THIS SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS...BUT WILL BEGIN TO TREND COOLER ON
MONDAY...AND CLOSEST TO THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

[KatDaddy]

You want to really talk icestorms. Check out the link to the massive Quebec 1998 icestorm

http://www.icestormphotos.com/

[GeneratorPower]

You want to really talk icestorms. Check out the link to the massive Quebec 1998 icestorm

http://www.icestormphotos.com/

That was absolutely unreal. I don't think TX/LA/MS need anything like that destroying what Katrina left of the power grid.

EDIT: And Rita. Don't forget Rita.

[HarlequinBoy]

I've been in two memorable ice storms. One being December 2000 in which there was about a half inch of ice on trees, but the roads were okay. Huge tree limbs were coming down and one fell on the roof of our house and punctured a small whole into the attic.

And of course the Ice Storm of 1994. I honestly can barely remember it, but my family has an entire photo album full of pictures from it. Amazing is all I can say. Over 3 inches of freezing rain and some parts of Mississippi received nearly 6 inches of ice. My mom was pregnant with my sister and didn't have power for over 3 weeks, luckily after about 4 days we went to stay with my aunt north of Memphis.. my grandparents weren't as lucky. They went over 1 month without power. But that was an extreme ice storm.


Hopefully this weekend won't be anything like December 2000 of February 1994 in Texas.

[KatDaddy]

Here is another link to a forum with an ice storm thread. It shows recent images of the amazing Jan 2, 2007 Nebraska storm. Check out the blade of grass!

http://cellar.org/showthread.php?p=303506

[Toady1]

Again the zonal flow of the sub-tropical jet which keeps Florida in the warmth will protect Central to Southern Texas from a major cold outbreak....Again, probably 5 to 10 degrees below normal but nothing drastic!

My gosh ... I think you're right ... all of this talk about arctic air and freezing precip by meteorologists who get paid to study and forecast this stuff is just a load of whooeee.

You know ... I think I'm just going to go ahead and plan a fishing trip and a picnic for next week here in the Austin area. Five to 10 degrees below normal will suit me and the bass just fine.

I'm glad I didn't winterize my boat. Seriously, how long is this outbreak expected to last?

[Portastorm]

Toady1 ... your original post (pre edit) was funny!

The much below normal temps are forecasted to last until at least Jan. 22nd for most of Texas.

[Toady1]

Toady1 ... your original post (pre edit) was funny!

The much below normal temps are forecasted to last until at least Jan. 22nd for most of Texas.

THanks. I actaully went to home depot and looked at generators....one of those dont need it till you need it items. I need one anyway. Those poor folks around the state that lost their power for over a week back in 97 have one now I bet.

[Tireman4]

This will be one of the most interesting Houston Marathons on record. The race in 1997 was a bugaboo as well. Race started at freezing temps with hail and sleet most of the way. It could be interesting.Needless to say, the half and full marathoners on my running board are none to pleased right now. Cold weather is great running weather (40-50), but 20's and 30's are not great. Add precipitation and it becomes treacherous. Realize that the marathon will take place from 7am to 1pm on Sunday. That is when they shut down the course( 1pm). Others will continue on, but not with a police presence. My race will take me 20-21 minutes to finish, although one hour for some is not unheard of.