North Texas Winter Weather Outlook/Updates 2005-06

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NORTH TEXAS WEATHER SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
440 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2006

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE GLAZED MANY BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY. NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS WERE
REPORTED ACROSS THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX.

PREDAWN TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS.
SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOME AREAS EARLY
THIS MORNING.

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SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
800 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-191700-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
800 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2006

.NOW...
...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...

MOST OF THE WINTERY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S...AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL
DEPOSIT A LIGHT COATING OF ICE ON EXPOSED SURFACES INCLUDING ROADS
AND WALKWAYS. ALTHOUGH THE ICE ON ROADWAYS MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD...
SLICK SPOTS WILL POSE A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES.

MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION. IT MAY BE DIFFICULT
TO DETERMINE IF THERE IS ICE ON A BRIDGE OR OTHER ROAD SURFACE. AVOID
SUDDEN MOVEMENTS THAT COULD CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR
VEHICLE. GENTLY TAP BRAKES TO PREVENT SKIDDING. SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW
PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1125 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2006

.AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND P6SM VIS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS FZDZ DIMINISHES AND ENDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THEN AROUND FREEZING THROUGH
00Z. MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING WITH MVFR VIS POSSIBLE AFTER 07Z AND
MAYBE DOWN TO 1-2SM BR EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
E-SERLY LATE TONIGHT.  75

&&

.UPDATE...
1100 AM.
AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
TEXAS LATE THIS MORNING. THE MAIN AREA OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT THE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG HAS
DEPOSITED A THIN COATING OF ICE THAT HAS RESULTED IN SOME SLICK
SPOTS. THUS WE HAVE KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE
NORTHWEST.  #58

&&

.AVIATION...
600 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2006

CEILINGS LOWERING AND -FZDZ BCMG MORE WIDESPREAD. EXPECT SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TODAY. UPSLOPE WINDS AROUND MIDDAY MAY HELP SOME IFR
CIGS LINGER BEYOND CURRENT MENTION. ONLY CARRYING LIGHT PRECIP UNTIL
18-19Z. TEMPS WILL BREAK 32F AT WACO AT THAT TIME...METRO APTS
SOMETIME DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAY NEED TO EXTEND AWW IF PRECIP
CONTINUES BEYOND CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME OF WARNING...10 AM. WINDS
WILL START VEERING THIS MORNING...SPEEDS REMAINING LIGHT. 25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
409 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2006
VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT FOG AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND PERHAPS LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL. MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA AND POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST WHERE
BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT EXISTS. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION HAS CEASED
AND RADIATION FROM THE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER CLOUD BEARING LAYER
AND HEAT FROM THE GROUND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR AT THE END OF THE
VERIFICATION PERIOD (7 PM) AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE SET
THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM OVERNIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY DUE TO TRAVEL PROBLEMS
CREATED BY TRACE AMOUNTS OF ICING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS INCREDIBLY
DIFFICULT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE CLOUD COVER AND
EROSION OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. MODELS ARE LIKELY TOO QUICK TO
ERODE THE ARCTIC AIR AND DISPERSE THE CLOUD DECK AND WILL FORECAST
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AND WARM SIDE
FOR LOWS. FOR CHANCES OF RAIN...GFS SEEMS TO BE A WET OUTLIER FOR
TUESDAY AND WILL UNDERCUT MAV POPS. UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE EAST AND AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND POPS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THIS TIME FRAME.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW A WEAK FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN NEXT WEEKEND BEHIND ANOTHER FRONT.

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NORTH TEXAS WEATHER SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1032 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2006


FREEZING TEMPERATURES CONTINUED TO AFFECT NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. 
THIS COMBINED WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE IS CONTINUING TO MAKE DRIVING
CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS.  MANY ACCIDENTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE
METROPLEX.  CURRENTLY...DALLAS AND FORT WORTH ARE REPORTING FREEZING
DRIZZLE.  THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE BEING REPORTED IS 30 DEGREES IN
GRAND PRAIRIE AND LANCASTER.  THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN THE STATE
ARE OVER THE PANHANDLE...AMARILLO IS REPORTING 18 DEGREES.  WINDS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN NORTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS.

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SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
142 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-200000-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
142 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2006

.NOW...
...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 3 PM SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
GOLDTHWAITE TO ATHENS AND AT 6 PM NORTH OF THAT LINE...

TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING OVER MOST OF NORTH TEXAS.
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL DEPOSIT ICE ON EXPOSED SURFACES
INCLUDING ROADS AND WALKWAYS. ALTHOUGH THE ICE ON ROADWAYS MAY NOT BE
WIDESPREAD...SLICK SPOTS WILL POSE A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. CONDITIONS WILL EASE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN
ZONES AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING...BUT ELSEWHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. IT MAY BE DIFFICULT
TO DETERMINE IF THERE IS ICE ON A BRIDGE OR OTHER ROAD SURFACE.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
326 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO RISE
JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...BUT REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. WE WILL EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY DUE AS WE EXPECT ADDITIONAL FREEZING
DRIZZLE. IN AREAS WHERE THE TEMPERATURE HAS RISEN ABOVE FREEZING...
WE EXPECT THEM TO DROP BACK TO THE 30 TO 32 DEGREE RANGE OVERNIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE TRYING THE BRING WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST...
BUT THIS PROCESS HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR. THUS THE COLD AIR MAY
HANG IN A LITTLE LONGER. HAVE KEPT TONIGHTS LOWS NEAR TO A LITTLE
UNDER THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE TRICKY
AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SLOWLY STARTS TO ERODE...BUT BELIEVE THAT IT
WILL REMAIN COOL ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODIFY FURTHER ON TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH
TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEAK WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.

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NORTH TEXAS WEATHER SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
335 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2006

THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER HAS MOVED TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
AND EXTENDS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH TEXAS AT
3 PM. A SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO
SPREAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH TEXAS REGION.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE QUICKER AND IS
NOW OVER NEVADA AND WESTERN PORTION OF UTAH AND ARIZONA. LOW
CEILINGS FOG AND SOME VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
HAS CONTINUED OVER NORTH TEXAS. THE WINDS ARE VARIABLE OUT OF THE 
EAST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGHOUT THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE
RANGING FROM 28 TO 30 DEGREES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA NORTHWARD TO THE RED RIVER WHILE 32 TO 36 DEGREES RANGE
SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHEAST TO HEARNE AND PALESTINE.

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SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
304 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-200000-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
304 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2006

.NOW...
...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS EXTENDED UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR ALL
OF NORTH TEXAS...

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING AFTER SUNSET OVER ALL OF
NORTH TEXAS...INCLUDING THOSE AREAS IN THE SOUTHEAST THAT HAVE SEEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
DEPOSIT ICE ON EXPOSED SURFACES INCLUDING ROADS AND WALKWAYS.
ALTHOUGH THE ICE ON ROADWAYS MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD...SLICK SPOTS WILL
POSE A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. IT MAY BE DIFFICULT
TO DETERMINE IF THERE IS ICE ON A BRIDGE OR OTHER ROAD SURFACE UNTIL
IT IS TOO LATE TO SLOW DOWN.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
915 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2006

.UPDATE...
CURRENT IR SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS APPROACHING THE
AREA THIS EVENING...FROM THE BIG BEND AREA OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS.
ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION GENERATED BY THIS FEATURE WILL ASSIST IN
LOWERING THE SURFACE-BASED INVERSION CREATED BY THE MODIFYING ARCTIC
AIRMASS...AND WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/MIST/FOG ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.  SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE UPCOMING 12 HOUR PERIOD...AS
PERSISTENT ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION ERODES THE INVERSION...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BY MID-MORNING
MONDAY.  HOWEVER...UNTIL THEN...EXPECT VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
GLAZE ON ELEVATED/EXPOSED SURFACES...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TO COVER ASSOCIATED TRAVEL-RELATED ISSUES.  MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT/WIND
FORECASTS...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED WITH THIS
UPDATE.

65/DD

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO RISE
JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...BUT REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. WE WILL EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY DUE AS WE EXPECT ADDITIONAL FREEZING
DRIZZLE. IN AREAS WHERE THE TEMPERATURE HAS RISEN ABOVE FREEZING...
WE EXPECT THEM TO DROP BACK TO THE 30 TO 32 DEGREE RANGE OVERNIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE TRYING THE BRING WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST...
BUT THIS PROCESS HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR. THUS THE COLD AIR MAY
HANG IN A LITTLE LONGER. HAVE KEPT TONIGHTS LOWS NEAR TO A LITTLE
UNDER THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE TRICKY
AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SLOWLY STARTS TO ERODE...BUT BELIEVE THAT IT
WILL REMAIN COOL ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODIFY FURTHER ON TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH
TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEAK WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.

[TexasStooge]

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SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
830 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-200500-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
830 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2006

.NOW...
...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR ALL
OF NORTH TEXAS FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG...

TEMPERATURES WERE AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AT 815 PM. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL DEPOSIT THIN
LAYERS OF ICE ON EXPOSED SURFACES...ESPECIALLY ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH
AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. ALTHOUGH THE ICE MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD...
SLICK SPOTS WILL POSE A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES.

SERIOUS ACCIDENTS HAVE BEEN WIDESPREAD OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS.
EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE IF THERE IS ICE ON A BRIDGE OR OTHER ROAD SURFACE UNTIL IT
IS TOO LATE TO SLOW DOWN.

[TexasStooge]

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
336 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-201100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
336 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM MONDAY FOR
ALL OF NORTH TEXAS.

AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SOME FREEZING FOG ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT GLAZING OF ICE WILL ACCUMULATE ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
ALTHOUGH SOME ROADS MAY BE SLIGHTLY SLICK EARLY MONDAY MORNING...
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK AS TEMPERATURES
WARM ABOVE FREEZING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT FOR
REPORTS OF ICING.

[TexasStooge]

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
525 AM CST MON FEB 20 2006

.AVIATION...
LIFR/IFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.  EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO LINGER FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE AS MODELS ARE LIKELY TOO QUICK TO
ERODE THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS AND BREAK THE INVERSION/CLOUDS.
WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF LIGHT FZDZ AT METROPLEX SITES THROUGH 9
AM.  TEMPS SHOULD RISE ABOVE 32 BY THIS TIME.  TR/92

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO
AID IN THE CONTINUATION OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS THROUGH MID MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 10 AM FOR AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
GOLDTHWAITE...TO HILLSBORO...TO PALESTINE. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF
THIS LINE HAVE ALREADY RISEN ABOVE THE FREEZING MARKING...AND WERE
THEREFORE LEFT OUT OF THE EXTENDED ADVISORY. CONTINUING WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 40S AND 50S TODAY.
THE COLD AIR WILL HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER IN THE EAST...AS THE
MODERATING ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES EAST.

NORTH TEXAS REMAINS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME GETTING A HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW...WITH
THE GFS SHOWING ALMOST CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION. FORECASTED PW VALUES
INDICATE THAT ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK. DUE TO THESE FACTORS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN ALMOST
EVERY PERIOD IN THE FORECAST.

FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT. WEDNESDAY`S SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE
SOUTHEAST. MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. IF THIS PATTERN
PANS OUT...THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD SNAP FOR NORTH TEXAS.

[TexasStooge]

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NORTH TEXAS WEATHER SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 AM CST MON FEB 20 2006

A SHALLOW DOME OF COLD ARCTIC AIR PERSISTS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.  WARM MOIST AIR ALOFT IS
OVER RUNNING THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE AND THIS IS PRODUCING LOW
CLOUDS...FOG AND LIGHT DRIZZLE.  WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING...A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE IS BEING DEPOSITED ON ELEVATED
SURFACES.  WINDS WERE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA.

[TexasStooge]

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SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
639 AM CST MON FEB 20 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-201445-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
639 AM CST MON FEB 20 2006

.NOW...
TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE PART OF NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THAT IS NORTH OF A LINE FROM PALESTINE...TO
CORSICANA...TO HILLSBORO...TO COMANCHE.  LIGHT DRIZZLE AND FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
AREA. WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING...THE FOG AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL DEPOSIT THIN LAYERS OF ICE ON EXPOSED SURFACES...
ESPECIALLY ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. ALTHOUGH
THE ICE MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD...SLICK SPOTS WILL POSE A PROBLEM...
ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

SERIOUS ACCIDENTS HAVE BEEN WIDESPREAD OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS.
EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE IF THERE IS ICE ON A BRIDGE OR OTHER ROAD SURFACE UNTIL IT
IS TOO LATE TO SLOW DOWN.

[TexasStooge]

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 AM CST MON FEB 20 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-202200-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
400 AM CST MON FEB 20 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM FOR
LOCATIONS NORTH OF A PALESTINE...TO CORSICANA...TO HILLSBORO...TO
GOLDTHWAITE LINE.

AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING FOG ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES CAN RISE ABOVE
FREEZING.  A LIGHT GLAZING OF ICE WILL ACCUMULATE ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES WHICH WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY SOUTHEAST OF A
SULPHUR SPRINGS...TO HILLSBORO...TO LAMPASAS LINE.  SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR REPORTS OF ICING THIS
MORNING.

[TexasStooge]

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SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
928 AM CST MON FEB 20 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-201600-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
928 AM CST MON FEB 20 2006

.NOW...
...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM FOR THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH TEXAS...

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH 10 AM
GENERALLY NORTH OF AN ATHENS...HILLSBORO...TO ABILENE LINE.
PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL DEPOSIT SOME THIN ICE ON
EXPOSED SURFACES...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

SERIOUS ACCIDENTS HAVE BEEN WIDESPREAD OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS.
EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE IF THERE IS ICE ON A BRIDGE OR OTHER ROAD SURFACE UNTIL IT
IS TOO LATE TO SLOW DOWN.

DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY...
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS SHOULD
SLOWLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING AFTER 10 AM.

[TexasStooge]

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SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1013 AM CST MON FEB 20 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-201800-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
1013 AM CST MON FEB 20 2006

.NOW...
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
NOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
THE DAY AND ANY REMAINING ICE SHOULD QUICKLY MELT.

MOTORISTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING THIS
MORNING DUE TO RESIDUAL ICE ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
530 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2006


.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY CHALLENGING FCST FOR N TX THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SHALLOW
REMNANTS OF FRONTAL INVERSION FROM LAST WEEK`S ARCTIC SURGE STUBBORN
TO MIX OUT...DESPITE W/SWLY FLOW RIGHT ABOVE IT FROM 850 MB ON UP.
THIS WILL HOLD CLOUDS...PATCHY DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG AROUND
THROUGH NEARLY MIDDAY...AND THEN AGAIN TONIGHT AS WEAK E/NELY FLOW
ALONG/BELOW SATURATED...SHALLOW FRONTAL VERSION PERSISTS. IT`S
POSSIBLE PRELIM #`S FOR TEMPS MAY BE ADJUSTED RIGHT AT FCST
DEPENDING ON "GUT"FEELING. WARMING UP FCST TOO MUCH COULD BE FOOL`S
GOLD WITH THIS IN MIND. IT`S POSSIBLE TODAY THAT A WEAK DRYLINE
TROUGH COULD GRAZE FAR WRN COUNTIES NEAR GRAHAM AND EASTLAND...AND
WARM THEM UP INTO THE LOWER 70S...WHILE EVERYONE ELSE IS IN THE
LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NOT BUYING IT THOUGH AND WILL LEAN WITH
COOLER MAV.

OTHERWISE...JUST A PLAIN HEADACHE ON FCST STARTING TONIGHT/AFTER.
CURRENT SHALLOW FRONTAL VERSION REMAINS STUBBORN TO BREAK AND WILL
LIKELY BEING REINFORCED THROUGH MID WEEK AS ANOTHER SHALLOW POLAR
AIRMASS SINKS SWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER AND STALLS OVER CENTRAL/SE
TX. ALSO...SPLIT FLOW ALOFT...WITH N TX ON SRN STREAM SIDE OF SPLIT
...WILL CREATE LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMP FCSTS AND WILL STAY NEAR
MAV/CONSENSUS #`S FOR THE MOST PART. UPPER LOW SINKING SWD OVER CA
SHOULD CUT OFF NEAR SRN CA/BAJA CA THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL
S/W`S EJECTING OUT OF SUB-TROPICAL STREAM AND ACROSS N TX...THOUGH
COMING INTO CONFLUENT FLOW. SHOULD SEE CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASING
TONIGHT AND MAINTAINING THROUGH FRI NIGHT (AT LEAST THAT`S GOOD
NEWS FOR THE DROUGHT) WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER AS MODEST INSTABILITY
AND FORCING ALOFT OCCUR ABOVE SHALLOW INVERSION.

TIMING FEATURES...PARTICULARLY S/W`S ALOFT IS VERY DIFFICULT. AS
SUCH...WON`T GO MORE THAN CHANCE WORDING...WITH BEST CHANCES S OF
I-20 NEAR BETTER SFC FOCUSING MECHANISM OF STATIONARY FRONT TO
THE SOUTH. MORE OF A ZONAL TO WNW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD SHUT OFF THE S/W TRAIN FROM THE ERN PACIFIC
AND ALLOW SOME LOW LVL DRYING AS WELL.

[TexasStooge]

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1105 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1104 PM     FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE FORT WORTH              32.75N  97.34W
02/18/2006  M0.00 INCH       TARRANT            TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            OVER 100 INJURIES DUE TO AUTO ACCIDENTS IN TARRANT
            COUNTY

[TexasStooge]

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1103 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1102 PM     FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE DALLAS                  32.79N  96.77W
02/18/2006  M0.00 INCH       S                  TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            NEWS MEDIA REPORTS MORE THAN 90 MAJOR ACCIDENTS IN
            DALLAS COUNTY