SW LA/SE TX Winter 2013-2014
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
Re: SW LA/SE TX Winter 2013-2014
Folks, it's definitely gotten colder with strong winds and steady rainfall here. I thought this wasn't supposed to get going until this afternoon.
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vbhoutex
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Re: SW LA/SE TX Winter 2013-2014
Morning from Jeff:
***Impactful winter storm event heading for SE TX.***
Winter Storm Warning in effect from 900pm tonight until 900am Friday for all counties.
Arctic cold front is moving southward through north TX this morning and will move off the coast early this afternoon. Initial wind shift will drop temperatures into the 40’s across the area before a secondary surge of much colder air arrives around dark this evening which is currently moving southward over OK and KS where temps are in the 10’s and 1’s. Short term models suggest northern tier counties could be very near freezing prior to sunset this evening so we could start to see some changeover of rain to freezing rain after 300pm in the College Station to Huntsville areas…but think roads will be ok until after sunset and then it is going to go downhill very quickly and spread southward across much of the area. Meso models are in decent agreement on breaking out light rain this afternoon from north to south across the region as lifting of a moistening air mass over the frontal dome occurs. Temperatures should fall to freezing at most locations by 300-400am Friday morning and the recovery on Friday will be very slow with temperatures not likely reaching freezing until around 1000am to noon if then. Warming on Friday will depend on the amount of precipitation that continues across the area.
P-type:
After reviewing the short term guidance forecast soundings for IAH, VCT, and CLL I see no big reason to change the P-type thinking of mostly freezing rain and sleet with mixed snow. Interestingly CLL soundings do fall almost entirely below freezing by 600am Friday morning which would suggest a changeover to mostly snow. Sounding is also saturated up to around 15,000ft but then dries aloft. Think the northern counties will start off as freezing rain early this evening then go over to a freezing rain and sleet mix then to a sleet and snow mix by Friday morning. Further south including metro Houston and the US 59 corridor expect rain to change to freezing rain around midnight and then a freezing rain and sleet mixture Friday morning. Toward the coast mainly just freezing rain with some sleet mixed in. This continues to look like an ice event over a snow event…but there will be plenty of mixing of precipitation across the region as thermal profiles change throughout the event.
Accumulations:
A little more concerned with accumulations this morning as the intruding dry air from the NE looks less than before and liquid QPF numbers have increased some overnight especially on the NAM model. Would like to see 00Z (600pm) soundings this evening to see how they are matching with the meso model trends…but I do not have that luxury 12 hours before they are launched. Upstream air mass is very cold and dry so I will leave that door open to a little more drier air getting in here than the models are showing and keeping accumulation amounts in the .10 to .20 range. Should there be less dry air accumulation amounts could be closer to .25 to .30 inches which becomes a little more concerning with respect to power outages and tree limbs. Amounts look greatest along the US 59 from Houston SW to Victoria and then southward toward the coast where the moisture will be greatest and the dry sub cloud layer least….or Fort Bend, Wharton, Jackson, and Victoria Counties.
Other item to consider is the amount of sleet mixing in which tends to lessen accumulations, but forms a more solid and crusty layer of ice similar to what happened in N TX in early December 2013. More snow would greatly increase accumulations into the ½ to 1.5 inch range…but this looks unlikely at the moment and if it occurred would be mainly NW of a line from Columbus to Conroe. Think any snow will be very wet and will likely only add to the icing accumulation.
Impacts:
Ice accumulation on bridge and overpasses looks likely tonight into much of Friday producing extremely dangerous travel conditions. TXDOT crews have been applying anti-ice chemical on freeways overnight. Extreme caution should be used at all bridges, overpasses, connector ramps, and flyovers after dark tonight through all day on Friday. Additional roadway treatments will likely be needed tonight into Friday. If you must travel…take surface streets with as few bridges as possible.
Airports will require de-icing operations of aircraft by this evening so expect long delays. Ice accumulation on aircraft control surfaces at departure gates and on runways is likely with heavy icing up through 5,000 ft in rapidly changing precipitation mixture through ascent.
Still think power outages will not be a big problem, but we are starting to get near the threshold on accumulation where the area could see some outages. Typically 1/4th of an inch of ice is the threshold to start to see power problems and ½ of an inch is when things really start to get bad. These outages would likely be focused north of I-10 in the pine forest areas which have the most surface area for ice to accumulate. Winds will also be gusty in the 20-30mph range which will add more weight and pressure to ice covered trees and power lines.
***Impactful winter storm event heading for SE TX.***
Winter Storm Warning in effect from 900pm tonight until 900am Friday for all counties.
Arctic cold front is moving southward through north TX this morning and will move off the coast early this afternoon. Initial wind shift will drop temperatures into the 40’s across the area before a secondary surge of much colder air arrives around dark this evening which is currently moving southward over OK and KS where temps are in the 10’s and 1’s. Short term models suggest northern tier counties could be very near freezing prior to sunset this evening so we could start to see some changeover of rain to freezing rain after 300pm in the College Station to Huntsville areas…but think roads will be ok until after sunset and then it is going to go downhill very quickly and spread southward across much of the area. Meso models are in decent agreement on breaking out light rain this afternoon from north to south across the region as lifting of a moistening air mass over the frontal dome occurs. Temperatures should fall to freezing at most locations by 300-400am Friday morning and the recovery on Friday will be very slow with temperatures not likely reaching freezing until around 1000am to noon if then. Warming on Friday will depend on the amount of precipitation that continues across the area.
P-type:
After reviewing the short term guidance forecast soundings for IAH, VCT, and CLL I see no big reason to change the P-type thinking of mostly freezing rain and sleet with mixed snow. Interestingly CLL soundings do fall almost entirely below freezing by 600am Friday morning which would suggest a changeover to mostly snow. Sounding is also saturated up to around 15,000ft but then dries aloft. Think the northern counties will start off as freezing rain early this evening then go over to a freezing rain and sleet mix then to a sleet and snow mix by Friday morning. Further south including metro Houston and the US 59 corridor expect rain to change to freezing rain around midnight and then a freezing rain and sleet mixture Friday morning. Toward the coast mainly just freezing rain with some sleet mixed in. This continues to look like an ice event over a snow event…but there will be plenty of mixing of precipitation across the region as thermal profiles change throughout the event.
Accumulations:
A little more concerned with accumulations this morning as the intruding dry air from the NE looks less than before and liquid QPF numbers have increased some overnight especially on the NAM model. Would like to see 00Z (600pm) soundings this evening to see how they are matching with the meso model trends…but I do not have that luxury 12 hours before they are launched. Upstream air mass is very cold and dry so I will leave that door open to a little more drier air getting in here than the models are showing and keeping accumulation amounts in the .10 to .20 range. Should there be less dry air accumulation amounts could be closer to .25 to .30 inches which becomes a little more concerning with respect to power outages and tree limbs. Amounts look greatest along the US 59 from Houston SW to Victoria and then southward toward the coast where the moisture will be greatest and the dry sub cloud layer least….or Fort Bend, Wharton, Jackson, and Victoria Counties.
Other item to consider is the amount of sleet mixing in which tends to lessen accumulations, but forms a more solid and crusty layer of ice similar to what happened in N TX in early December 2013. More snow would greatly increase accumulations into the ½ to 1.5 inch range…but this looks unlikely at the moment and if it occurred would be mainly NW of a line from Columbus to Conroe. Think any snow will be very wet and will likely only add to the icing accumulation.
Impacts:
Ice accumulation on bridge and overpasses looks likely tonight into much of Friday producing extremely dangerous travel conditions. TXDOT crews have been applying anti-ice chemical on freeways overnight. Extreme caution should be used at all bridges, overpasses, connector ramps, and flyovers after dark tonight through all day on Friday. Additional roadway treatments will likely be needed tonight into Friday. If you must travel…take surface streets with as few bridges as possible.
Airports will require de-icing operations of aircraft by this evening so expect long delays. Ice accumulation on aircraft control surfaces at departure gates and on runways is likely with heavy icing up through 5,000 ft in rapidly changing precipitation mixture through ascent.
Still think power outages will not be a big problem, but we are starting to get near the threshold on accumulation where the area could see some outages. Typically 1/4th of an inch of ice is the threshold to start to see power problems and ½ of an inch is when things really start to get bad. These outages would likely be focused north of I-10 in the pine forest areas which have the most surface area for ice to accumulate. Winds will also be gusty in the 20-30mph range which will add more weight and pressure to ice covered trees and power lines.
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PTrackerLA
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Re: SW LA/SE TX Winter 2013-2014
12z Euro shows 1.1" of snow for Lafayette now, will be interesting!
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Re: SW LA/SE TX Winter 2013-2014
trying to confirm Friendswood school district is closed tomorrow....
its not...rumors of district closers are flying all over the place in Pearland....
its not...rumors of district closers are flying all over the place in Pearland....
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BigB0882
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Re: SW LA/SE TX Winter 2013-2014
PTrackerLA wrote:12z Euro shows 1.1" of snow for Lafayette now, will be interesting!
Anything at all eastward, specifically Baton Rouge?
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CYCLONE MIKE
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Re: SW LA/SE TX Winter 2013-2014
Jagno wrote:Folks, it's definitely gotten colder with strong winds and steady rainfall here. I thought this wasn't supposed to get going until this afternoon.
Was noticing this as well. Radar is lit up with mix showing in northern la. Seems to be a lot more moisture around d here then models were showing. Gfs didn't have any rain in la til tonight.
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Tireman4
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Re: Re:
ROCK wrote:Tireman4 wrote:BigB0882 wrote:WBR schools closed!! Weeee!!!!
And HISD is not...hummm....LOL
not yet...
HCC is waiting through the night. I am thinking they will make their call either late tonight or early tomorrow morning
Due to the severe weather forecast, HCC officials will be monitoring the weather situation throughout the night. Students, faculty and staff are advised to check the HCC Web site (http://www.hccs.edu), all local television stations, HCCTV and radio stations before attempting to come to work or class tomorrow morning.
Last edited by Tireman4 on Thu Jan 23, 2014 3:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: SW LA/SE TX Winter 2013-2014
All Calcasieu, Cameron and Jeff Davis parish schools are closed! My youngest graduated 4 years ago and they still text me with school information. LOL
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Re: SW LA/SE TX Winter 2013-2014
Any Chance this gets anywhere close to Houma 
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Stormcenter
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Re: SW LA/SE TX Winter 2013-2014
There is always a chance. IMO
cigtyme wrote:Any Chance this gets anywhere close to Houma
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Re: SW LA/SE TX Winter 2013-2014
Just let the dogs back in, and it is a very cold drizzle/light rain here on Galveston island. This is starting a bit early.
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TOTAL NOVICE. The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Lansing MI, Galveston TX, Madison WI, Houston TX, Newark DE
Lansing MI, Galveston TX, Madison WI, Houston TX, Newark DE
Re: SW LA/SE TX Winter 2013-2014
Just read in a blog by Steve Caparotta (WAFB) that the NWS says that they will likely expand the advisory eastward a bit later today. He did not know how much farther east. That should put me in it 
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Re: SW LA/SE TX Winter 2013-2014
My Parents called from Winsboro La(65 miles SW of Monroe). Snowing, not much, but it is starting to accumulate 
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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CYCLONE MIKE
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Re: SW LA/SE TX Winter 2013-2014
cigtyme wrote:My Parents called from Winsboro La(65 miles SW of Monroe). Snowing, not much, but it is starting to accumulate
Yep looking at radar looks like it is starting to fill in up there. Sure didn't think anyone up there was forecast to get anything. Hopefully that's a good sign for us down here.
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Re:
jasons wrote:It's 34 here with a steady light rain. The freezing line and reports of sleet are just north of here. It will probably be quite an eventful day here tomorrow.
Yeah be careful...you are right on the line...here in Pearland we are right around 38-37 so I little ways yet to go.....raining here...
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vbhoutex
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Re: SW LA/SE TX Winter 2013-2014
Just went to 32f here in Spring Branch area with light rain still falling.
Expecting icing to begin within the next 2 hours. Radar has shown some ice in the Katy area on and off. I still have a concern that the column is sufficiently wetted and we may wake uo to snow falling on top of ice in the morning. Does anyone have any info or comments on this?
All in all, it appears that we are in for a mess for the next 12-20 hours or so. I have my doubts that the temperature will get above freezing tomorrow.
Expecting icing to begin within the next 2 hours. Radar has shown some ice in the Katy area on and off. I still have a concern that the column is sufficiently wetted and we may wake uo to snow falling on top of ice in the morning. Does anyone have any info or comments on this?
All in all, it appears that we are in for a mess for the next 12-20 hours or so. I have my doubts that the temperature will get above freezing tomorrow.
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