Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

You guys see the latest run on the GFS? I know i know, its @ 384 but its a start. 1052 High coming across the border bringing major cold to the west. Is this what Mr. Cosgrove was looking for? Again, very early but fun to watch

[cycloneye]

Yes TeamPlayerBlue,is a dream for the Texas folks if this pans out However, is way ahead of time and there will be changes to this from run to run,but it will be interesting to follow. The graphic has been uploaded to conserve it. Porta,what do you think of this?



Uploaded by imageshack.us

[Tireman4]

[quote="cycloneye"]:uarrow: Yes,is a dream for the Texas folks if this pans out However, is way ahead of time and there will be changes to this from run to run,but it will be interesting to follow. The graphic has been uploaded to conserve it.


Holy heck fire Batman. Wow......Again, way way way too far off and things will so change, but wow after THE WORST SUMMER EVER, this gives some folks notice....

[TeamPlayersBlue]

i dont know how post the pics. I will look into it. Well LC think it will be a cold Nov and the teleconnections say the AO will dump early in the month. Problem is, no matter how 'cold' of a nov it will be, ppl in houston has never seen snow this month.

[iorange55]

It'll certainly change, but it is nice to see the possibility of a big cold front so soon. Maybe it is a sign of good things to come and another surprising winter!

I am sure the future runs will pull back a bit, but who knows! Might bring the first widespread freeze to North and Central Texas.

[Turtle]

That GFS sure looks great. Using twisterdata, it shows me right in the middle of 1" snow depth! So far this fall has brought record-breaking snowfall, so I'm kinda excited.

[natlib]

The date for the average first freeze here in San Angelo is November 13th....so that potential front would be right on time.

[somethingfunny]

:uarrow: Yes TeamPlayerBlue,is a dream for the Texas folks if this pans out However, is way ahead of time and there will be changes to this from run to run,but it will be interesting to follow. The graphic has been uploaded to conserve it. Porta,what do you think of this?

http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/8294/gfs ... precip.gif

Uploaded by imageshack.us

ROFLOMGWTF

e: waiting for run-to-run consistency, particularly a consistent date of arrival. These usually get pushed back and pushed back but it's really, really interesting for our late November, early December pattern IMO.

[cycloneye]

Well,the flip flopping starts as at 18z GFS the dream event envisioned by many in Texas as they saw that 12z run doesn't come to fructition. You will see at 00z run another scenario and that changing will continue until the model has some runs of consistency and other models join.So folks,relax and watch these 6 hour intervals as entretainment for now.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Oh yeah, of course its for entertainment only. Still a 1040 MB high in the NW Territories though

[Ntxw]

Anything beyond good resolution of 192 hours is a child drawing it . Beyond 84 hours is a guess! It can easily show 100 degrees for Texas at that frame in November as it can 0! My best guess is thanksgiving week will be the first widespread freeze for north and central Texas

[Portastorm]

The Grey Goose-swilling Portastorm Weather Center meteorologists think the bigger point here is that these scenarios are even showing up on the GFS. If we can get a very negative AO and a negative NAO going (like we saw last winter), those signals will likely overwhelm the Nina signature and offer the potential for some significant cold air outbreaks into the Southern Plains and Texas.

It's a very real possibility this winter even though the overall numbers will average above normal temps/below normal precip. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see one or two frozen precip threats for north Texas and the Red River between mid November and New Years along with some very cold air.

Sadly I think my part of Texas and my pals in SE Texas are less likely this winter to get in on the "fun." Not saying it won't happen but just less likely. MJO forcing will also play a role and if see the MJO in phase 7 or 8, that will mean more "wetter" systems inpacting us.

[Ntxw]

It's a very real possibility this winter even though the overall numbers will average above normal temps/below normal precip. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see one or two frozen precip threats for north Texas and the Red River between mid November and New Years along with some very cold air.

Sadly I think my part of Texas and my pals in SE Texas are less likely this winter to get in on the "fun." Not saying it won't happen but just less likely. MJO forcing will also play a role and if see the MJO in phase 7 or 8, that will mean more "wetter" systems inpacting us.

I'm not getting good vibes for winter precip either. The storm track so far this fall has been panhandle hookers. It seems the Red River is the line of demarcation. We've lacked systems coming in from NW Mexico and SoCal which isn't unusual for a Nina but the lack thereof at all has me worried. I also think the NAO is been mostly neutral in recent weeks/months, but the PNA has given us hope every now and then.

[cycloneye]

NAO pretty much in neutral at this time. Graphic below doesn't update.



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Graphic below updates.

[cycloneye]

This is todays 12z GFS but on less time (216 hours) than the 384 timeframe I posted yesterday,so is a little more credible. Very cold with precipitation for a good portion of the state. Of course,changes will occur every six hours,but consistency is what is required here on next runs and if other models join GFS later.



Upluaded by Imageshack.us

[gpsnowman]

This is todays 12z GFS but on less time (216 hours) than the 384 timeframe I posted yesterday,so is a little more credible. Very cold with precipitation for a good portion of the state. Of course,changes will occur every six hours,but consistency is what is required here on next runs and if other models join GFS later.

http://img35.imageshack.us/img35/3580/g ... precip.gif

Upluaded by Imageshack.us

Today Ron Jackson (Fox 4 Dallas) hinted at big changes next week but did not go in depth past the weekly outlook. And judging from the posted model runs something is in the air it seems.

[cycloneye]

Todays 12z Euro at 192 hours almost coincides with GFS.

[gboudx]

This is todays 12z GFS but on less time (216 hours) than the 384 timeframe I posted yesterday,so is a little more credible. Very cold with precipitation for a good portion of the state. Of course,changes will occur every six hours,but consistency is what is required here on next runs and if other models join GFS later.

http://img35.imageshack.us/img35/3580/g ... precip.gif

Upluaded by Imageshack.us

Today Ron Jackson (Fox 4 Dallas) hinted at big changes next week but did not go in depth past the weekly outlook. And judging from the posted model runs something is in the air it seems.

Just wait until Steve McCauley sees it and gets on the air.

[iorange55]

We'll see what happens. I think the main thing is there will probably be some kind of big change coming up, it'll be interesting to see what happens.

If anything it's looking like we'll get some good rain. The Euro has been showing that lately for awhile now.

[aggiecutter]

We'll see what happens. I think the main thing is there will probably be some kind of big change coming up, it'll be interesting to see what happens.

If anything it's looking like we'll get some good rain. The Euro has been showing that lately for awhile now.

The Shreveport afternoon AFD suggest that a front will stall in the SW flow late this weekend into early next week. The forecaster suggested that the stalled front and upper level disturbances in the SW flow could result in an extended period of rain in the southern plains and Texas.