Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Dean4Storms]

OK, this really starting to look interesting with the day to day run consistency and a cold snap like this well overdue for the deep south.

[Stormcenter]

What are you basing your comments on? Do you have new model support? Thanks
in advance.

OK, this really starting to look interesting with the day to day run consistency and a cold snap like this well overdue for the deep south.

[Brent]

[Stormcenter]

NWS out if New Orleans mentions the upcoming changes in their
afternoon discussion.

MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF A SUBSTANTIAL
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEGAN INTRODUCING THUNDER BY SUN
EVENING AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES LOOK TO BE QUITE CONDUCIVE
FOR STRONG STORMS...BUT OF COURSE THIS IS 6 DAYS OUT. WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIG COOL DOWN NEXT WEEK

[Kennethb]

But are these the younger, less experienced NWS employees who are working for the veteran, more experienced employees who are on holiday vacation and who usually are a little more reluctant to mention longrange thoughts?

NWS out if New Orleans mentions the upcoming changes in their
afternoon discussion.

MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF A SUBSTANTIAL
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEGAN INTRODUCING THUNDER BY SUN
EVENING AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES LOOK TO BE QUITE CONDUCIVE
FOR STRONG STORMS...BUT OF COURSE THIS IS 6 DAYS OUT. WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIG COOL DOWN NEXT WEEK

[CYCLONE MIKE]

NWS out if New Orleans mentions the upcoming changes in their
afternoon discussion.

MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF A SUBSTANTIAL
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEGAN INTRODUCING THUNDER BY SUN
EVENING AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES LOOK TO BE QUITE CONDUCIVE
FOR STRONG STORMS...BUT OF COURSE THIS IS 6 DAYS OUT. WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIG COOL DOWN NEXT WEEK

Stormcenter you always beat me to it. Lets just hope this pans out as compared to the last time they hinted at a possible winter storm 10 days after our snow event in december.

[Brent]

[Dean4Storms]

What are you basing your comments on? Do you have new model support? Thanks
in advance.

OK, this really starting to look interesting with the day to day run consistency and a cold snap like this well overdue for the deep south.

The GFS continues to show a deep trough developing in the east beginning next week and a sub jet running along the Gulf Coast, a good usual set up for wintry precip for the south. If and it is a big if, if we get some of that -50F artic air sliding southward it could get really interesting. I know there is no indication of that right now, but with the trough in the east anything is possible this far out.

[Brent]

and in typical GFS fashion, the snow is gone and while it's still colder than it has been, it's not historic cold anymore.

[jinftl]

We live in such an age of 'extreme' everything...it is almost boring if a cold front, snowstorm, hurricane, heatwave isn't 'epic'....guess it comes down to this....we can't have too many '(fill in the blank) of the decade or century' each year!

and in typical GFS fashion, the snow is gone and while it's still colder than it has been, it's not historic cold anymore.

[AL Chili Pepper]

It still shows the gate open in the east with multiple lows developing and moving across the South. I've seen the GFS flip flop in the long range like that before locking in on some major cold air intrusions 4-5 days out so there is still a good chance IMO. Like has been said before, the model often underperforms in predicting the extent of cold air outbreaks.

[Dean4Storms]

I agree, I wouldn't write off the cold air just yet.

[vbhoutex]

BBBBRRRR!!! Long ways out, but one can dream!!!

[Brent]

All hope is not lost:





and perhaps the best chance for something significant:





and this out in voodoo land:

[Dean4Storms]

Well according to the GFS we are only about 6 days out from this trough plunging southward in the east and the general trend continues. If this is still showing up on Fri and especially Sat. I'll be closer to being sold.

[wxman22]

The latest 0z GFS is VERY intresting...

[Brent]

Heavy snow in Huntsville/Nashville/Chattanooga, so close:





A flizzard:





Another interesting storm way out in voodoo:

[Dean4Storms]

Boy that shows wintry precip getting all the way to N FLorida behind that front.

[Lowpressure]

Why are we still hoping for the GFS to verify this winter? It has been terrible for the South and Southeast. Stop looking at it beyond 72. The Euro has been much better and conservative for this area and thus more accurate. The GFS has cried wolf many times this year and failed miserably for the SouthEast. It can not even get the old "even a broken clock is right twice a day" scenario right.

[Brent]

Why are we still hoping for the GFS to verify this winter? It has been terrible for the South and Southeast. Stop looking at it beyond 72. The Euro has been much better and conservative for this area and thus more accurate. The GFS has cried wolf many times this year and failed miserably for the SouthEast. It can not even get the old "even a broken clock is right twice a day" scenario right.

I agree, I officially give up on the long-range GFS.