Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Ralph's Weather]

So with all this talk of a more South track why is FWD NWS sticking with the WWA and new WSW for the metro? Just playing it cautious or figuring well we put them out so might as well just leave them......

I mean it seems from what I've read on here I'll be lucky to see a flake at this point in Denton County........

So what's going in?

I think you are mostly correct, they already issued it so may as well wait until it becomes clear in real time that i won't happen. They don't want to cancel and then reissue if the trowel develops tonight and gives you a couple inches.

I am surprised Shreveport issued warnings for the tier of counties north of I-20 where they did not have a watch previously though I guess portions of those counties could get up to 3".

So at what point do we throw in the towel and make a short drive to see snow? In your opinion.

I am debating that myself, Waco and Abilene both are in line for good snow. For me if I head out it would be to Deep East Texas for the snow tonight. Down there it could be a sloppy couple inches of sleet and snow or well over 6" if all snow.

[Ralph's Weather]

RAP 09Z just spit out the heaviest snow in the state over Katy, that's a curveball.

[goCoogs]

That would be awesome. I'm just a couple miles east of Katy.

[Ralph's Weather]

Abilene's temps are about to crash as the band of snow moves in.

[Snowman67]

NWS just added Montgomery, Waller and Austin counties to the WWA area.

[TropicalTundra]

40-39F and rain. Temps need to drop fast here if we want snow.

[SouthernMet]

So with all this talk of a more South track why is FWD NWS sticking with the WWA and new WSW for the metro? Just playing it cautious or figuring well we put them out so might as well just leave them......

I mean it seems from what I've read on here I'll be lucky to see a flake at this point in Denton County........

So what's going in?

FWIW the latest GFS/NAM both shifted north and upped totals for DFW consistent with the track we're seeing now. If the heavy band around Abilene/Brownwood holds together the immediate area along I-20 is still in business. Hi-Res models had been showing this for days. Temps dropped from 39-32 within 45 minutes of the onset of precip in San Angelo, Abilene and Brownwood.
Currently we're still fighting dry air and warm air advection in DFW (hence why temps had briefly went up a couple degrees) but that window will close in the next hour or two.
As the shortwave moves closer a few key things happen, 1) the 'warm' air advection will be cutoff 2) as precipitation moves in evaporative cooling will saturate the columns down to the surface allowing for snow to reach the ground 3) enough lift will be present especially along and south of the metroplex to produce a period of some sustained banding.

Also, the WWA is in place because of the potential for wrap-around backside snow along and north of I-20 this evening. The NAM/RAP have been bullish on developing an additional band of snow over DFW lingering till just after midnight. Confidence isn't as high on this and accumulations with this particular band would be light.

[SouthernMet]

I know most of you yall are asleep right now... Model output aside - looking at current radar trends Fort Worth, Weatherford and even Decatur are in a good position to be included in some heavy snow with this first band. Even for those in Denton who seem desperate at this point, the snow currently extends as far north as bowie and as far west as Lubbock! This is just the first wave.
We've been burned in the metroplex by many busts over the years but this is shaping up similar to feb 2010. Even if we just get 1"-4" in the metro that's the more than we've seen in years.
Models have struggled to grasp with all the moving parts we're dealing with on this rare setup but they were all over the place in feb 2010 the night before as well. Even the local mets aren't confident on accumulation totals and locations due to us in DFW rarely seeing a setup like this with temps this cold aloft. Keep in mind this ULL originated along the Russian/Mongolian border, imo it has the potential to overperform especially if we have enough lift around into tonight. Obviously areas just South of the metro have the best chance for sustained heavier precip but folks on the western and south side of the immediate DFW area shouldn't give up yet.

[TropicalTundra]

I know most of you yall are asleep right now... Model output aside - looking at current radar trends Fort Worth, Weatherford and even Decatur are in a good position to be included in some heavy snow with this first band. Even for those in Denton who seem desperate at this point, the snow currently extends as far north as bowie and as far west as Lubbock! This is just the first wave.
We've been burned in the metroplex by many busts over the years but this is shaping up similar to feb 2010. Even if we just get 1"-4" in the metro that's the more than we've seen in years.
Models have struggled to grasp with all the moving parts we're dealing with on this rare setup but they were all over the place in feb 2010 the night before as well. Even the local mets aren't confident on accumulation totals and locations due to us in DFW rarely seeing a setup like this with temps this cold aloft. Keep in mind this ULL originated along the Russian/Mongolian border, imo it has the potential to overperform especially if we have enough lift around into tonight. Obviously areas just South of the metro have the best chance for sustained heavier precip but folks on the western and south side of the immediate DFW area shouldn't give up yet.

At least I’m awake. Just needs to get a little colder and flakes will start to fall.

[serenata09]

Snow flurries in Richardson just started about 15 mins ago.

[TropicalTundra]

Snow flurries in Richardson just started about 15 mins ago.

Isn’t that like 15 miles northeast of the Metroplex?

[funster]

The radar itself is impressive this morning. Hopefully temps will fall a bit to help keep what falls alive and allow it to accumulate...

I know most of you yall are asleep right now... Model output aside - looking at current radar trends Fort Worth, Weatherford and even Decatur are in a good position to be included in some heavy snow with this first band. Even for those in Denton who seem desperate at this point, the snow currently extends as far north as bowie and as far west as Lubbock! This is just the first wave.
We've been burned in the metroplex by many busts over the years but this is shaping up similar to feb 2010. Even if we just get 1"-4" in the metro that's the more than we've seen in years.
Models have struggled to grasp with all the moving parts we're dealing with on this rare setup but they were all over the place in feb 2010 the night before as well. Even the local mets aren't confident on accumulation totals and locations due to us in DFW rarely seeing a setup like this with temps this cold aloft. Keep in mind this ULL originated along the Russian/Mongolian border, imo it has the potential to overperform especially if we have enough lift around into tonight. Obviously areas just South of the metro have the best chance for sustained heavier precip but folks on the western and south side of the immediate DFW area shouldn't give up yet.

[SouthernMet]

Snow flurries in Richardson just started about 15 mins ago.

mPING and social media reports have confirmed light sleet/snow mix reaching the ground in Burleson/Fort Worth/Dallas and across the metro now. A good 4 hours ahead of time, that's a good sign that we saturated our profile and WAA should start eroding soon as this band moves in and drops temps down to at or near freezing.

It's very important to note for you skeptics, 9/10 times we are working against a warm nose in DFW that usually ruins our wintry weather chances and drags down warmer temps to the surface or freezing rain at best. We are NOT dealing with a warm nose today and that's what makes this so much more promising than any potential event we've seen in 6 years.

[serenata09]

Snow flurries in Richardson just started about 15 mins ago.

Isn’t that like 15 miles northeast of the Metroplex?

Richardson is in the Metroplex. I live at the border of Dallas and Collin county.

[TropicalTundra]

Little flakes starting to mix in with the rain here in Temple.

[HockeyTx82]

Fox 4 WAPP is showing some lightning down by Comanche. Also, there's and odd donut hole over Denton right now

[EnnisTx]

Good morning folks! Working on the 3rd cup of coffee and radar watching. Won't be long before it picks up in here and you have to keep refreshing to keep up.

Hoping everyone sees some heavy snow.

[EnnisTx]

Fox 4 WAPP is showing some lightning down by Comanche. Also, there's and odd donut hole over Denton right now

Yep, watching a few strikes around Goldwaith.

[TropicalTundra]

It’s so difficult to tell the difference between drizzle and snow, but I’m starting to notice some fatter white flakes mix in.

[SouthernMet]

Fox 4 WAPP is showing some lightning down by Comanche. Also, there's and odd donut hole over Denton right now

This is the second time in 2 weeks stephenville has seen the uncommon phenomenon of thundersnow.