Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Quixotic]

Don’t give up. We’ve had WSWs just to see OK get crushed.

[Captmorg70]

Okay I know I said I was logging off (I am now trust me) but do we really need to post every model run at this point?

I hope you guys all have a good night and godspeed.

The pattern is ripe for you DFW folk to cash in on one of these systems. The GFS is already hinting at another chance for y’all next weekend.

Honestly after these last 2 systems, I’d almost prefer that it doesn’t hint at anything.

[Captmorg70]

Precipitation seems to firing up sooner and stronger. Especially in central Texas. I’m sure that will effect the outcome of things a bit, but do not see how that could benefit N Tx at this point.

It looks like any hope of over 1 inch is slim once north of I-20.

[Texas Snow]

Finally a new AFD. Doesn’t add much but here ya go. They left everything in place. Still don’t get why there is still a WSW instead am advisory, Warning, or nothing.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1140 PM CST Sat Jan 9 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Sunday night/

Our highly anticipated low pressure system has finally entered
the Lone Star State late this evening, bringing some light snow
to southwest Texas. Some light rain has also developed across
South and Central Texas this evening due to increasing isentropic
ascent. The only changes necessary to the overnight period of the
forecast will be to add some low rain chances to the Central
Texas counties. This precipitation will fall as liquid rain and
surface temperatures will remain above freezing so we do not
anticipate any freezing/frozen precipitation across our Central
Texas counties through at least 4 AM. As we head toward sunrise,
the light rain across Central Texas should begin to mix with
light snow as the column begins to cool due to dynamic and
evaporative processes.

We are gaining more confidence in our forecast for Sunday as most
of the high resolution model solutions are in decent agreement.
Of course there is still considerable variability in the forecast
snow amounts and this is understandable based on the complexity
of factors that go into these model outputs. What the models do
tell us is that the locations that are most likely to see
accumulating snow are within our current Winter Storm Warning and
that lesser amounts are likely north and and northeast of the
Warning. Therefore, we will leave the current Warning, Advisory
and Watch configured the same for this update and also leave the
timing and amounts largely unchanged.

One thing to keep in mind is that this is a very dynamic and cold
system for Texas and many of the high res models continue to
indicate a convective element, therefore, it is very possible
that some isolated areas could see higher totals and impacts than
the majority of the area. Unfortunately, it is very difficult if
not impossible to predict these areas with any accuracy even 12
hours into the future.

Another factor that is uncertain is exactly what the near surface
temperatures will be since it is difficult to quantify exactly
how much evaporative cooling will occur. We anticipate that most
locations will remain above freezing through the day Sunday, but
locations that see heavier snow bands may see more wetbulbing and
colder temperatures. In addition, the rate at which the snow
could fall may result in slushy accumulations on roadways, even
with temperatures above freezing.

Much of the precipitation should decrease or end Sunday evening
with the departing upper low, however, it still appears that some
wrap around light snow will be likely, mainly north of the I-20
corridor. These areas may actually receive the most snow in this
second wave and it actually may cause more impacts since
temperatures will be below freezing. This is why we will run the
Warnings/Advisories through 6 AM Monday

[txtwister78]

Euro

[South Texas Storms]

Latest HRRR continues to trend deeper and farther south with the low moving across the state today. The end of the run now has heavy sleet moving into Downtown Houston at 5pm.

[Cpv17]

Latest HRRR continues to trend deeper and farther south with the low moving across the state today. The end of the run now has heavy sleet moving into Downtown Houston at 5pm.

Still not quite into Wharton County yet but hey it’s getting closer lol but seriously that’s some heavy stuff getting into Harris County.

[SouthernMet]

Precip firing way ahead of schedule. Already as close as Hillsboro/Stephenville. Lighter returns may not be reaching the ground but the point is this will help saturate the columns and potentially surface temps, ahead of schedule.

[TexasSam]

I'm in Nederland, Tx. (Beaumont) it's 41 with sleet.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Precip firing way ahead of schedule. Already as close as Hillsboro/Stephenville. Lighter returns may not be reaching the ground but the point is this will help saturate the columns and potentially surface temps, ahead of schedule.

Would that help the DFW metro in getting some snow?

[Ralph's Weather]

First radar returns are arriving overhead now, highly doubt anything is close to reaching the ground though.

[KeriCarter]

The kiddos are getting excited. I’m praying for enough for them to play in.

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
255 AM CST Sun Jan 10 2021

...Accumulating snowfall will be possible across portions of the
area this evening through Monday morning...

.A strong winter storm will be moving through the region today
and continue into Monday morning. Rain during the day today will
transition to all snow or a wintry mix this evening and continue
into early monday morning. Accumulating snow will be possible
across the entire area with the greatest amounts across portions
of north central and northwest Louisiana, south central Arkansas
and east and northeast Texas.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072-LAZ020-022-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-
101700-
/O.NEW.KSHV.WW.Y.0001.210110T2000Z-210111T1400Z/
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Grant-La Salle-McCurtain-Red River-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-
Camp-Morris-Cass-
Including the cities of De Queen, Nashville, Mineral Springs,
Dierks, Ashdown, Hope, Prescott, Texarkana, Stamps, Lewisville,
Bradley, Magnolia, Colfax, Montgomery, Dry Prong, Jena, Midway,
Olla, Idabel, Broken Bow, Clarksville, Bogata, Mount Vernon,
Mount Pleasant, Pittsburg, Daingerfield, Lone Star, Naples,
Omaha, Atlanta, Linden, Hughes Springs, and Queen City
255 AM CST Sun Jan 10 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 AM CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
up to two inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of north central Louisiana, southeast
Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas and northeast Texas.

* WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible as roads may
become slick, especially on bridges and elevated roadways. The
hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.

[SouthernMet]

Precip firing way ahead of schedule. Already as close as Hillsboro/Stephenville. Lighter returns may not be reaching the ground but the point is this will help saturate the columns and potentially surface temps, ahead of schedule.

Would that help the DFW metro in getting some snow?

Won't hurt. But we have some dry air we have to overcome first.

[SouthernMet]

San Angelo just dropped from 39 to 32 in an hour with the onset of precip.
In the last 20 mins 4 different mPING reports popped up just south and SW of fort worth reporting snow and a rain/snow mix in Alvarado. Looks like its finally saturating to the surface.

[TXdaddy217]

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... _rOi2lMHqs

Abilene NWS has accumulation totals of 7-11 inches in the updated forecast. Snow line just now starting to enter the area.

[Snowman67]

With the way things are trending I wouldn’t be surprised to see Harris county added to an advisory or watch area.

[Ralph's Weather]

NWS Shreveport upgraded the area along and south of I-20 to a WSW with a WWA for the I-30 corridor. They are advertising 2-4" in the warning area. Their forecast closely matches mine for East Texas.

[HockeyTx82]

So with all this talk of a more South track why is FWD NWS sticking with the WWA and new WSW for the metro? Just playing it cautious or figuring well we put them out so might as well just leave them......

I mean it seems from what I've read on here I'll be lucky to see a flake at this point in Denton County........

So what's going in?

[Ralph's Weather]

So with all this talk of a more South track why is FWD NWS sticking with the WWA and new WSW for the metro? Just playing it cautious or figuring well we put them out so might as well just leave them......

I mean it seems from what I've read on here I'll be lucky to see a flake at this point in Denton County........

So what's going in?

I think you are mostly correct, they already issued it so may as well wait until it becomes clear in real time that i won't happen. They don't want to cancel and then reissue if the trowel develops tonight and gives you a couple inches.

I am surprised Shreveport issued warnings for the tier of counties north of I-20 where they did not have a watch previously though I guess portions of those counties could get up to 3".

[HockeyTx82]

So with all this talk of a more South track why is FWD NWS sticking with the WWA and new WSW for the metro? Just playing it cautious or figuring well we put them out so might as well just leave them......

I mean it seems from what I've read on here I'll be lucky to see a flake at this point in Denton County........

So what's going in?

I think you are mostly correct, they already issued it so may as well wait until it becomes clear in real time that i won't happen. They don't want to cancel and then reissue if the trowel develops tonight and gives you a couple inches.

I am surprised Shreveport issued warnings for the tier of counties north of I-20 where they did not have a watch previously though I guess portions of those counties could get up to 3".

So at what point do we throw in the towel and make a short drive to see snow? In your opinion.

I see a pro met or two on here now, any thoughts for the DFW and just north counties, Denton area. And thank you ahead of time if you reply.