Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Cpv17]

Even on the edge of the TPV, we still have highs below freezing across most of the state on that run, yes as much as id love that, id sure as heck wouldnt want to be directly under the TPV, thats some real day after tommorow like cold lol

Unfortunately it looks like the Euro and GFS are picking up on the extreme solution…you can start to see the TPV organizing NW of Hudson Bay on both models now day 5-6.
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/namer/z500_anom/1735668000/1736186400-SjzSKDNAw4Q.png

What does this mean?

More cold and less precip, I believe.

[Ntxw]

I still think 1985 is the best guide. Jan 1-10 that year had several snow systems in the south before the TPV crash for different areas. We have next week to try and cash in. No two years are exactly the same, but you can get a general idea of jet stream progression.

[Quixotic]

I still think 1985 is the best guide. Jan 1-10 that year had several snow systems in the south before the TPV crash for different areas. We have next week to try and cash in. No two years are exactly the same, but you can get a general idea of jet stream progression.

Memory: front on Dec 26. Snow on NYE. Snowing as I left Prince concert. Warmed up dramatically. Jan 19th after abnormal warmth, a front dropped temps from 70s to 10 degrees. Back and forth until Jan 31st and the beast that kept us below freezing almost as long as 1983 with a 4” snow after 1/2” snows each day for 6 days. That’s memory. I could look it up but I’m lazy.

[Brent]

Wow Oklahoma broke a record for number of tornadoes this year

Now it's time to break some snow records

Also the GFS has a high of 9 here... it's very short lived though if you believe the GFS

[Gotwood]

In relation to the PNA how positive is too positive? Seems like it’s going to be less than 1 on the index scale when this cold wave hits.

[Brent]

Well the GFS has more snow here than we had the entire winter last winter

[Cpv17]

It seems like Missouri would be a sweet spot to live if you’re weather enthusiast like a lot of us on here. They get all sorts of extremes there.

[Stratton23]

00z ICON has the shortwave that the GFS/ Euro have been showing, shortwave digging out west with plenty of cold air in place…

[Brent]

GFS shifting north with Sunday

We will never get a good trend here

[cstrunk]

It seems like Missouri would be a sweet spot to live if you’re weather enthusiast like a lot of us on here. They get all sorts of extremes there.

I enjoyed growing up in the Heartland. 4 true seasons. And extremes like 120F+ heat indexes in the summer and blizzards or -30/-40F wind chills in the winter.

[Ntxw]

Another run, another solution for the GFS! A little snow for the 2nd system in S-central and SE Texas then quickly fizzles. Third system coming down.

[Ntxw]

So GFS and CMC sends the southerly system retrograding under the big Pacific ridge and now looking for the 3rd system coming from the north to be the storm.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw looks more like the GFS splits the energy with the southern system, and leaves behind behind energy that its able to snow in central- western parts of se texas, Euro will be interesting

[wxman22]

I wouldn't mind this scenario, nothing crazy but still a decent event with a couple of inches of snow. LOL

[Brent]

Still can't get a good trend here. It's all still over a week out

[Ntxw]

Certainly no lack of cold sitting around. It's just digging trof after digging trof. At least that's more certain, prolonged cold.

[Quixotic]

Get the cold here then worry about S/Ws

[Quixotic]

Looks like the hard part is a given.

[Stratton23]

2 more systems behind the one that produces snow in south central texas, those also produce snow across the state, thats quite the pattern on the GFS

[hurricane2025]

Don’t lose sleep and model watch, won’t know anything till about Sunday or Monday