Texas Winter 2022-2023

[South Texas Storms]

12z GFS has snow in New Orleans on Christmas Day

[bubba hotep]

The 12z GFS has trended WAY colder for Christmas compared to 6z

For my area, it's 10s/20s vs 30s/40s as lows

Yeah, this GFS runs lines up more closely with the cold cluster from the 00z Euro EPS. It looks like this run might push some areas of NTX and OK below freezing for almost a week.

[Cerlin]

Latest ICON faster/stronger with Arctic Front on Thursday, catching up to the EURO OP now. GFS outlier

Noon Thursday
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2022121512/icon_T2m_scus_59.png

ICON basically nailed the timing of February 2021 so this is extremely encouraging!

[Edwards Limestone]

The ping-ponging here can be hard to follow...here's what EWX office is thinking for south central TX

[gpsnowman]

12z GFS has snow in New Orleans on Christmas Day

Ok you are in charge of a large hot pot of gumbo Christmas morning.

[wxman57]

The 12z GFS has trended WAY colder for Christmas compared to 6z

For my area, it's 10s/20s vs 30s/40s as lows

12Z GFS is not worth the paper it's written on, so to speak.

[Ntxw]

The 12z GFS has trended WAY colder for Christmas compared to 6z

For my area, it's 10s/20s vs 30s/40s as lows

12Z GFS is not worth the paper it's written on, so to speak.

Model is too warm, cut it by 5-10F .

[Iceresistance]

12z CMC very cold, but extremely dry.

[txtwister78]

Don't make any holiday plans off of that. Lol

[Iceresistance]

Don't make any holiday plans off of that. Lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2022121512/gem_T2m_scus_38.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2022121500/gem_T2m_scus_40.png

The Canadian model is clueless right now.

[Ntxw]

The 12z GFS has trended WAY colder for Christmas compared to 6z

For my area, it's 10s/20s vs 30s/40s as lows

Yeah, this GFS runs lines up more closely with the cold cluster from the 00z Euro EPS. It looks like this run might push some areas of NTX and OK below freezing for almost a week.

The ENS have been pretty insistent on Tues/Weds cold/freezing lasting through Christmas. OPs with their dance.

[Brent]

The 12z GFS has trended WAY colder for Christmas compared to 6z

For my area, it's 10s/20s vs 30s/40s as lows

Yeah, this GFS runs lines up more closely with the cold cluster from the 00z Euro EPS. It looks like this run might push some areas of NTX and OK below freezing for almost a week.

Yeah I'm not surprised but dang another trend I'm not surprised by been telling people the globals are always too warm with this

[Ntxw]

Need the Euro to side with Ukmet.

[Wntrwthrguy]

What are the chances an east coast block forces the coldest air south into Texas instead of letting it bleed to the east coast?

[Iceresistance]

Need the Euro to side with Ukmet.

https://i.imgur.com/5HHwpIh.png

What is it showing? It's blocked on My School Chromebook, but Gifyu is not.

[Iceresistance]

What are the chances an east coast block forces the coldest air south into Texas instead of letting it bleed to the east coast?

I mean, it's possible, February 2021 featured the East Coast Block (I forgot which teleconnection featured it) and we got DUMPED!

[txtwister78]

The 12z GFS has trended WAY colder for Christmas compared to 6z

For my area, it's 10s/20s vs 30s/40s as lows

Yeah, this GFS runs lines up more closely with the cold cluster from the 00z Euro EPS. It looks like this run might push some areas of NTX and OK below freezing for almost a week.

The ENS have been pretty insistent on Tues/Weds cold/freezing lasting through Christmas. OPs with their dance.

Yup and the 12z GEFS is much faster draining that arctic air into Texas Tues/wed timeframe which I think is more accurate. Have always felt this would be "earlier" than what OP's had been hinting at just due to the way arctic fronts push in contrast with how the models typically handle that coming down the plains. We shall see.

[Iceresistance]

I will enjoy the sun as much as I can because soon, I may not be able to for several days.

[Ntxw]

Need the Euro to side with Ukmet.

https://i.imgur.com/5HHwpIh.png

What is it showing? It's blocked on My School Chromebook, but Gifyu is not.

More energy digging down in the Pac NW. Not perfect but better for system odds.

[Iceresistance]

Need the Euro to side with Ukmet.

https://i.imgur.com/5HHwpIh.png

What is it showing? It's blocked on My School Chromebook, but Gifyu is not.

More energy digging down in the Pac NW. Not perfect but better for system odds.

Oh! The odds for snow here has increased from the UKMET, the models are overdoing the +PNA