Texas Winter 2020-2021

[txtwister78]

Trend continues to be a little more south where higher QPF expected for Central and even parts of South Central Texas. Totals are bit overdone. HRRR has also followed this "trend"

[South Texas Storms]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2021011000/wrf-arw_asnow_scus_24.png

Trend continues to be a little more south where higher QPF expected for Central and even parts of South Central Texas. Totals are bit overdone. HRRR has also followed this "trend"

Yep been trending that way all day as the low continues to dig southward to our west. If this continues, the northern part of SA and Houston could see some snow mix in with the rain before ending tomorrow.

[HockeyTx82]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2021011000/wrf-arw_asnow_scus_24.png

Trend continues to be a little more south where higher QPF expected for Central and even parts of South Central Texas. Totals are bit overdone. HRRR has also followed this "trend"

Yep been trending that way all day as the low continues to dig southward to our west. If this continues, the northern part of SA and Houston could see some snow mix in with the rain before ending tomorrow.

That looks to keep Dallas and Denton out of thr fun after they put us under a WWA... really?

[txtwister78]

[txtwister78]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2021011000/wrf-arw_asnow_scus_24.png

Trend continues to be a little more south where higher QPF expected for Central and even parts of South Central Texas. Totals are bit overdone. HRRR has also followed this "trend"

Yep been trending that way all day as the low continues to dig southward to our west. If this continues, the northern part of SA and Houston could see some snow mix in with the rain before ending tomorrow.

Agreed. I'm in Northern Bexar County and definitely within short driving distance if needed but based on events in the past (2017 event for example) it wouldn't surprise me (especially if we get some convective precip just out ahead of the colder boundary that a quick changeover occurs (RGEM and HRRR hints at this possibility) You always want to be in that sweet spot for a burst of convective snow.

[Brent]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2021011000/wrf-arw_asnow_scus_24.png

Trend continues to be a little more south where higher QPF expected for Central and even parts of South Central Texas. Totals are bit overdone. HRRR has also followed this "trend"

Yep been trending that way all day as the low continues to dig southward to our west. If this continues, the northern part of SA and Houston could see some snow mix in with the rain before ending tomorrow.

That looks to keep Dallas and Denton out of thr fun after they put us under a WWA... really?

I just don't know anymore lol I've been feeling pretty optimistic all day but I'm really not sure now

I mean I'll probably take a drive if it doesn't happen here but it needs to happen here for once

[Texas Snow]

What are the differences in the various WRF models? I have looked at them for years and never knew nor asked the question. Today is the day.

[rwfromkansas]

Uh, that would be a cussing situation.

It would basically be a repeat of New Year’s. It snowed 10 miles west of me. That model shows the same thing.

[txtwister78]

Yep been trending that way all day as the low continues to dig southward to our west. If this continues, the northern part of SA and Houston could see some snow mix in with the rain before ending tomorrow.

That looks to keep Dallas and Denton out of thr fun after they put us under a WWA... really?

I just don't know anymore lol I've been feeling pretty optimistic all day but I'm really not sure now

I mean I'll probably take a drive if it doesn't happen here but it needs to happen here for once

I'm still in the "take a drive boat" myself but in situations like this where the colder pocket of air is arriving from the NW and then you get lift out ahead of that boundary, you always want to be on the southern end of that assuming your precip valve doesn't get cut off (dry slotting etc). That's why I'm feeling a bit more optimistic a bit further south as this event gets closer and models see the colder air moving in more quickly before precip shuts off. Keep in mind though this is based on convective precip occurring. You need that in order to get those flakes to fall all the way to the ground. Could start out as heavy sleet and then changeover to heavy snow. I saw this in Kerrville a week ago. Still not a guarantee. (nowcast situation).

[ColdFusion]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2021011000/wrf-arw_asnow_scus_24.png

Trend continues to be a little more south where higher QPF expected for Central and even parts of South Central Texas. Totals are bit overdone. HRRR has also followed this "trend"

The disappointment those of us in dallas have been expecting. I don't buy the snow forecast anymore untll I see it falling from the sky.

[txtwister78]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2021011000/wrf-arw_asnow_scus_24.png

Trend continues to be a little more south where higher QPF expected for Central and even parts of South Central Texas. Totals are bit overdone. HRRR has also followed this "trend"

The disappointment those of us in dallas have been expecting. I don't buy the snow forecast anymore untll I see it falling from the sky.

I wouldn't throw in the towel just yet. This is a fairly broad system and even if you get an inch that would be exciting. Heck in 2017 we weren't forecasted to get anything and we picked up close to 3 inches on the N side of town. Sometimes models just don't see these variables that come into play until the event unfolds. So many things have to come together. In this case obviously you would rather be in Central Texas where the higher QPF is expected.

[EnnisTx]

https://zoom.earth/#view=35.2,-100.9,5. ... 9,20:40,-6

[Lagreeneyes03]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2021011000/wrf-arw_asnow_scus_24.png

Trend continues to be a little more south where higher QPF expected for Central and even parts of South Central Texas. Totals are bit overdone. HRRR has also followed this "trend"

The disappointment those of us in dallas have been expecting. I don't buy the snow forecast anymore untll I see it falling from the sky.

I am completely not understanding the "U" shape that takes form over Dallas. What is causing that, I know it's not "heat island", is there some kind of atmpospheric something in the NE part of the state?

[South Texas Storms]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2021011000/wrf-arw_asnow_scus_24.png

Trend continues to be a little more south where higher QPF expected for Central and even parts of South Central Texas. Totals are bit overdone. HRRR has also followed this "trend"

The disappointment those of us in dallas have been expecting. I don't buy the snow forecast anymore untll I see it falling from the sky.

I wouldn't throw in the towel just yet. This is a fairly broad system and even if you get an inch that would be exciting. Heck in 2017 we weren't forecasted to get anything and we picked up close to 3 inches on the N side of town. Sometimes models just don't see these variables that come into play until the event unfolds. So many things have to come together. In this case obviously you would rather be in Central Texas where the higher QPF is expected.

Yep we'll have to see how the radar looks tomorrow morning before giving up hope in Dallas. I am feeling better about my chances here in northwest Houston based on the latest trends though.

0z RGEM (which I feel is one of the best models for forecasting wintry precip) also continues to shift southward and now doesn't show much snow in Dallas. I still feel like some parts of DFW could see 1-3 inches of snow, but chances of anything heavier than that looks pretty unlikely right now.

[Brent]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2021011000/wrf-arw_asnow_scus_24.png

Trend continues to be a little more south where higher QPF expected for Central and even parts of South Central Texas. Totals are bit overdone. HRRR has also followed this "trend"

The disappointment those of us in dallas have been expecting. I don't buy the snow forecast anymore untll I see it falling from the sky.

I am completely not understanding the "U" shape that takes form over Dallas. What is causing that, I know it's not "heat island", is there some kind of atmpospheric something in the NE part of the state?

That is the low track it swings south around Abilene to Waco then back up towards Shreveport basically which if you notice is where the heaviest snow generally is modeled

[gpsnowman]

I think I am going to vomit.

[txtwister78]

The disappointment those of us in dallas have been expecting. I don't buy the snow forecast anymore untll I see it falling from the sky.

I am completely not understanding the "U" shape that takes form over Dallas. What is causing that, I know it's not "heat island", is there some kind of atmpospheric something in the NE part of the state?

That is the low track it swings south around Waco then back up towards Shreveport basically which if you notice is where the heaviest snow generally is modeled

Yup and that's why you also notice the temp differential. Where the models see heavier precip the temps are "colder" than those who are not under the heavier precip. So it's entirely possible to see Waco tomorrow sitting at 32 or 33 with snow and Dallas a few degrees warmer. This is not arctic blast so temps will be precipitation based.

[WinterMax]

That looks to keep Dallas and Denton out of thr fun after they put us under a WWA... really?

I just don't know anymore lol I've been feeling pretty optimistic all day but I'm really not sure now

I took a drive from Lafayette La. I settled on Center Tx. for the night, but will drive again in the morning if need be, lol

I mean I'll probably take a drive if it doesn't happen here but it needs to happen here for once

I'm still in the "take a drive boat" myself but in situations like this where the colder pocket of air is arriving from the NW and then you get lift out ahead of that boundary, you always want to be on the southern end of that assuming your precip valve doesn't get cut off (dry slotting etc). That's why I'm feeling a bit more optimistic a bit further south as this event gets closer and models see the colder air moving in more quickly before precip shuts off. Keep in mind though this is based on convective precip occurring. You need that in order to get those flakes to fall all the way to the ground. Could start out as heavy sleet and then changeover to heavy snow. I saw this in Kerrville a week ago. Still not a guarantee. (nowcast situation).

[txtwister78]

0Z New ICON.

[rwfromkansas]

0z NAM shifts way south with bigger amounts not covering DFW as much. So, yep.

Seen this before dozens of times growing up in KS, living in Midland, and a few times here. Not...good. I expect to see flakes, but expectations for 2 inches or so are gone. Ugh.