Texas Winter 2013-2014

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gboudx
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Re: Re:

#1601 Postby gboudx » Fri Dec 06, 2013 5:33 pm

Snowman67 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Snowman67 wrote:Can some of you N. Texas folks help me out here. I have a buddy who is consider driving from Hot Springs Arkansas to Waco for the BU-UT game tomorrow if the roads aren't too bad. He wants to know what the driving conditions would be from Texarkana to Waco (He would be taking I-30 to Dallas and then down 35 to Waco. Any insight that you can provide would be helpful. Thanks!


Are they not already bad where he is?

If he must go he's probably ok to Texarkana like aggiecutter said then continue till about Sulphur Springs and hop on Texas 19 till Athens. Then just take 31 right on to Waco, it goes around The metroplex and probably gets him there faster anyway.

Once the sun goes down, the melted stuff on the main roads will become black ice with the slush, teens will do that.


He said the roads are not too bad because they got much more sleet than the forecasted freezing rain. Thanks to all for providing the information.

He is just outside of Hot Springs Village


I take back what I said that roads in DFW may be clearing. It looks treacherous from the news reports. He should try the route Ntxwx suggested, or just stay home and watch the game on TV.
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Re: Re:

#1602 Postby TrekkerCC » Fri Dec 06, 2013 5:45 pm

gboudx wrote:I take back what I said that roads in DFW may be clearing. It looks treacherous from the news reports. He should try the route Ntxwx suggested, or just stay home and watch the game on TV.


Road conditions are likely to be as bad or worse in DFW than February 2011 for several days. Based on the map on FWD's website, Dallas proper received more sleet/ice than the February 2011 event. And we might receive a very thin glaze on top during the saturday/sunday event. We likely won't start to really clear out on the roads until Wednesday.
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#1603 Postby dhweather » Fri Dec 06, 2013 5:46 pm

Lost power about 2:30, had recorded about.60 of rain at that point. The weather station had us just above freezing, the rain gauge was still recording and not frozen over, but we lost power none the less.

So we're all sitting around the fireplace hoping Oncor gets something going here pretty soon. Sadly I think this will be measured in days, not hours. Hopefully the column dries up for that next disturbance - don't need to make thins worse!

At least we got a nice .6 or more of liquid rain, every little bit helps.
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#1604 Postby dhweather » Fri Dec 06, 2013 5:48 pm

I went out earlier, I have a 4WD, and I strongly advise anyone to not go out unless you have an urgent need to. It's treacherous already, and that slush is going to be horrific black ice.
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Re:

#1605 Postby gboudx » Fri Dec 06, 2013 5:51 pm

dhweather wrote:Lost power about 2:30, had recorded about.60 of rain at that point. The weather station had us just above freezing, the rain gauge was still recording and not frozen over, but we lost power none the less.

So we're all sitting around the fireplace hoping Oncor gets something going here pretty soon. Sadly I think this will be measured in days, not hours. Hopefully the column dries up for that next disturbance - don't need to make thins worse!

At least we got a nice .6 or more of liquid rain, every little bit helps.


Some friends of ours near Wyndemere in Heath lost power too. They ran out of firewood and found a hotel. We don't have Oncor and have been ok. I'm shocked because sometimes we lose power for a simple thunderstorm.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#1606 Postby Portastorm » Fri Dec 06, 2013 5:54 pm

I think y'all will really enjoy this article. A buddy of mine at work just passed it along to me. It's from an edition of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram from a day or two ago ... a Bud Kennedy piece:

Joe McFarland and his ‘signature’ are taking the state by storm
Posted Thursday, Dec. 05, 2013

By Bud Kennedy
bud@star-telegram.com

Rancher Joe McFarland woke up Thursday to news anchors debating whether Texas is “having a McFarland.”

“I’m not so sure I want a bad weather storm named for me,” said McFarland, 74, decades removed from his 1976 research at Texas A&M on winter storms.

For 30 years, he never knew meteorology students were taught about the McFarland Signature, an upper-level air pattern over Canada that signals Arctic winds and ice pushing deep into South Texas.

“I have never met these TV people talking about me,” he said, laughing over the phone from the Stephenville ranch where he retired from an A&M career teaching agricultural engineering and irrigation.

But he has looked at the weather map.

“This looks like a McFarland Signature, and a bad one,” he said.

He was a former Air Force colonel fresh out of the University of Oklahoma when his new boss at the National Weather Service in College Station gave him a rookie assignment.

That boss was Ray Jensen, who went on to retire as director of the weather service’s Southern Region office in Fort Worth.

“Joe was new, so I told him to start in the library and find a way to predict hard freezes in the Rio Grande Valley,” said Jensen, now 83 and ranching near Aquilla in Hill County.

“He was gone for days. I never saw him. Then he came back and said, ‘I found a clue.’”

McFarland said he studied old weather maps of devastating Valley freezes, particularly in 1951 and 1962, and struck out until he looked at air patterns at 18,000 feet, halfway up in the atmosphere.

Without going all weather-geek, I’ll just say he found the same precise atmospheric pattern over Hudson Bay repeatedly pushing Arctic air and ice deep into Texas or Florida.

He wrote a report that eventually became part of weather service training and college meteorology lessons, particularly at Texas Tech.

When Jensen presented the report to happy farmers and produce growers in the Valley, he gave it a brand name.

“I told them we found a forecast method,” Jensen said, “and I called it the McFarland Signature.”

Some TV weather anchors use the term. Others consider it insider lingo.

“McFarland observed strong Arctic outbreaks that went all the way to the Valley … but few meteorologists call it that,” said Rebecca Miller, a former meteorologist at KXAS/Channel 5 and KDAF/Channel 33.

She said she’d rather “convey that information without having to name it something.”

Even though Jensen named “the McFarland,” he laughed about anchors saying that today.

“I don’t watch TV weather very much, to be honest,” he said.

“I do my own forecast. I’m watching my cows.”

They predict winter.

Bud Kennedy’s column appears Sundays, Wednesdays and Fridays. 817-390-7538 Twitter: @BudKennedy
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#1607 Postby aggiecutter » Fri Dec 06, 2013 6:04 pm

For anyone going to the Texas-Baylor game tomorrow, here's the NWS official forecast for Waco for tomorrow:

"Saturday A chance of freezing drizzle after noon. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 25. Wind chill values between 8 and 14. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph."

BTW, Portastorm, you ought to rejoice as you'll be watching Mack Brown coach has last regular season game as a Texas Longhorn.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#1608 Postby Portastorm » Fri Dec 06, 2013 6:10 pm

aggiecutter wrote:For anyone going to the Texas-Baylor game tomorrow, here's the NWS official forecast for Waco for tomorrow:

"Saturday A chance of freezing drizzle after noon. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 25. Wind chill values between 8 and 14. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph."

BTW, Portastorm, you ought to rejoice as you'll be watching Mack Brown coach has last regular season game as a Texas Longhorn.


My friend, I hope you're right. I'm in the "Mack Must Go" camp.

Thanks for the forecast. I was wondering what the latest was for Waco. Meanwhile, over in the Okie winter thread the gang there tells me that Bedlam will have kickoff temps in the low teens. Coldest Bedlam ever if that verifies. Interesting. I wonder how the cold/wintry weather will impact the video-game like offenses of Okie State and Baylor.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#1609 Postby gboudx » Fri Dec 06, 2013 6:29 pm

Portastorm wrote:
aggiecutter wrote:For anyone going to the Texas-Baylor game tomorrow, here's the NWS official forecast for Waco for tomorrow:

"Saturday A chance of freezing drizzle after noon. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 25. Wind chill values between 8 and 14. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph."

BTW, Portastorm, you ought to rejoice as you'll be watching Mack Brown coach has last regular season game as a Texas Longhorn.


My friend, I hope you're right. I'm in the "Mack Must Go" camp.

Thanks for the forecast. I was wondering what the latest was for Waco. Meanwhile, over in the Okie winter thread the gang there tells me that Bedlam will have kickoff temps in the low teens. Coldest Bedlam ever if that verifies. Interesting. I wonder how the cold/wintry weather will impact the video-game like offenses of Okie State and Baylor.


Please use some of that great UT endowment $$ to lure Nick Saban from Alabama.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#1610 Postby Ntxw » Fri Dec 06, 2013 6:32 pm

:uarrow: I concur and expect no less of a hiring

Check out the temperatures in the morning in the Northern Plains. That my friends is the next reinforcing shot of cold coming Monday. Crazy cold up there, how often do you see such widespread -30s or lower in the CONUS? That's usually confined to interior Alaska and the Arctic.

Image
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#1611 Postby dhweather » Fri Dec 06, 2013 6:56 pm

Portastorm - thanks for that McFarland article - great read.
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#1612 Postby katheria » Fri Dec 06, 2013 6:56 pm

Weather Food and Wine Pairing: McFarland Signature Cuisine in Dallas :)

steves getting more famous

http://sidedish.dmagazine.com/2013/12/0 ... in-dallas/
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#1613 Postby dhweather » Fri Dec 06, 2013 6:58 pm

According to Oncor's site, one third of Rockwall county without power. 10% of Dallas county. 15% of Collin county.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#1614 Postby newtotex » Fri Dec 06, 2013 7:00 pm

gboudx wrote:
Portastorm wrote:
aggiecutter wrote:For anyone going to the Texas-Baylor game tomorrow, here's the NWS official forecast for Waco for tomorrow:

"Saturday A chance of freezing drizzle after noon. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 25. Wind chill values between 8 and 14. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph."

BTW, Portastorm, you ought to rejoice as you'll be watching Mack Brown coach has last regular season game as a Texas Longhorn.


My friend, I hope you're right. I'm in the "Mack Must Go" camp.

Thanks for the forecast. I was wondering what the latest was for Waco. Meanwhile, over in the Okie winter thread the gang there tells me that Bedlam will have kickoff temps in the low teens. Coldest Bedlam ever if that verifies. Interesting. I wonder how the cold/wintry weather will impact the video-game like offenses of Okie State and Baylor.


Please use some of that great UT endowment $$ to lure Nick Saban from Alabama.



Ehh, false! Being a bama fan and Tuscaloosa native, Saban ain't goin anywhere

P.s. Hope I don't have to eat crow lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#1615 Postby orangeblood » Fri Dec 06, 2013 7:25 pm

:uarrow: I've got about 40 million reasons why Mr. Saban will be in the Great State of Texas next year :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#1616 Postby AggieSpirit » Fri Dec 06, 2013 7:32 pm

I think Mack Brown should stay. He has done a great job helping recruits decide to play SEC football in College Station.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#1617 Postby GRAYSONCO.WX » Fri Dec 06, 2013 7:34 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
613 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF
CONVECTIVE SLEET SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ANALYSIS OF
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A PLUME OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE. THIS MOISTURE IS JUST BENEATH A
SHALLOW LAYER OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 600MB. WITH WEAK
ASCENT BENEATH THESE STEEP LAPSE RATES...SCATTERED SLEET SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
DRY AIR BELOW THE MOISTURE...SO SOME OF THIS WILL EVAPORATE AND
WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE...ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS WERE MADE
THROUGH TOMORROW MIDDAY.

DUNN
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#1618 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Dec 06, 2013 8:03 pm

Man it's so cold outside! Some of the small puddles from this morning's light rain here in College Station are beginning to freeze as the temperature is already below freezing here.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#1619 Postby newtotex » Fri Dec 06, 2013 8:17 pm

Probably shouldn't talk about Saban, it'll get heated lol

I'm thinking the roads up here are gonna be horrible tmrw with black ice. Just came in from outside and all the slush and water is starting to freeze..won't have to worry about driving, my car appears to be cemented to the driveway.

What's the forecast looking like for next Thursday? That's when I'm driving home for Cmas, will the roads and I-20 be thawed out?
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#1620 Postby downsouthman1 » Fri Dec 06, 2013 8:25 pm

GRAYSONCO.WX wrote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
613 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF
CONVECTIVE SLEET SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ANALYSIS OF
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A PLUME OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE. THIS MOISTURE IS JUST BENEATH A
SHALLOW LAYER OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 600MB. WITH WEAK
ASCENT BENEATH THESE STEEP LAPSE RATES...SCATTERED SLEET SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
DRY AIR BELOW THE MOISTURE...SO SOME OF THIS WILL EVAPORATE AND
WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE...ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS WERE MADE
THROUGH TOMORROW MIDDAY.

DUNN
interesting update. I wonder if it will actually happen & if so, where exactly & when?
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