North Texas Winter Weather Outlook/Updates 2005-06

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
356 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM FAYETTEVILLE AR TO JUST
SOUTH OF WICHITA FALLS AND PLAINVIEW. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ARE IN THE 80S...WITH DFW REACHING 85 DEGREES...BREAKING
THE OLD RECORD OF 83. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES DROP OFF
RAPIDLY INTO THE UPPER 30S IN OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE TEENS IN
NEBRASKA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX THIS
EVENING...BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DIURNAL HEATING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THIS EVENING.

PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST AREAS...AS MODERATE BUT
PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS. TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX WITH THE
RAIN IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SPREADING TO
THE METROPLEX TOWARDS THE EVENING...AND TO WACO CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. A
WINTER WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST
OF A KILLEEN TO PALESTINE LINE. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN
AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT SLEET IS POSSIBLE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...WHERE THE COLDEST AIR WILL FILTER IN. PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST ALONG THE RED RIVER. FREEZING PRECIP
WILL END AT MOST LOCATIONS BY MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CWA THROUGH MIDWEEK...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND BOUNDARIES HANG OUT
NEAR THE COAST.

[Mattie]

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR NO. TX FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON NO. OF A LINE FROM TEMPLE TO
GROESBECK TO PALESTINE. A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME SLEET IS EXPECTED OVER THE COURSE OF THE
WEEKEND.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NO. TX THURSDAY
EVENING WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT.
FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRI AFTERNOON IN
THE NO. & SPREAD SO. THROUGH THE EVENING. PERIODS OF
FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF AT LEAST ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. AS TEMPS
CONTINUE TO COOL.SLEET IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NO. TX SAT AFTERNOON.

THE GROUND TEMP AT THIS TIME IS VERY WARM BUT BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES WILL ICE QUICKLY PRESENTING AN IMMEDIATE DANGER TO
DRIVERS. HOWEVER.ROADWAYS WILL INITIALLY REMAIN ICE FREE FOR A
FEW HRS LONGER WHILE THE GROUND COOLS.

TXZ091>093-100>103-115>117-129-170515-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WS.A.0001.060217T2100Z-060220T0000Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-EASTLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF.BOWIE.NOCONA.GAINESVILLE.
SHERMAN.DENISON.GRAHAM.OLNEY.JACKSBORO.DECATUR.
BRIDGEPORT.DENTON.LEWISVILLE.FLWR MOUND.THE COLONY.
BRECKENRIDGE.MINERAL WELLS.WEATHERFORD.BRIAR.CISCO.
EASTLAND.RANGER.GORMAN
302 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH.WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN FRI AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS CONTINUING
THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. SOME SLEET MAY ALSO OCCUR BEGINNING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OVER ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH OF FREEZING RAIN & SLEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW.SLEET.OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

TXZ094-095-104>107-118>121-123-130>134-141>145-170515-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WS.A.0001.060218T0000Z-060220T0000Z/
FANNIN-LAMAR-COLLIN-HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-
KAUFMAN-RAINS-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-ELLIS-COMANCHE-MILLS-
HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF.BONHAM.PARIS.PLANO.GREENVILLE.
COMMERCE.COOPER.SULPHUR SPRINGS.FORT WORTH.ARLINGTON.
DALLAS.ROCKWALL.TERRELL.KAUFMAN.FORNEY.EMORY.POINT.
EAST TAWAKONI.STEPHENVILLE.DUBLIN.GRANBURY.
OAK TRAIL SHORES.GLEN ROSE.CLEBURNE.BURLESON.WAXAHACHIE.
ENNIS.MIDLOTHIAN.GLENN HEIGHTS.COMANCHE.DE LEON.
GOLDTHWAITE.HAMILTON.HICO.CLIFTON.MERIDIAN.
VALLEY MILLS.HILLSBORO
302 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRI EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH.WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRI EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN FRI EVENING WITH PERIODS CONTINUING
THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OVER ONE QUARTER OF
AN INCH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW.SLEET.OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

TXZ122-135-146>148-156>161-170515-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WS.A.0001.060218T0600Z-060220T0000Z/
VAN ZANDT-HENDERSON-NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-
BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF.WILLS POINT.CANTON.GRAND SALINE.
VAN.EDGEWOOD.ATHENS.GUN BARREL CITY.CORSICANA.TEAGUE.
FAIRFIELD.PALESTINE.LAMPASAS.COPPERAS COVE.GATESVILLE.
KILLEEN.TEMPLE.FORT HOOD.WACO.MARLIN.MEXIA.GROESBECK
302 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH.WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN LATE FRI NIGHT WITH PERIODS
CONTINUING THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OVER ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW.SLEET.OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

[TexasStooge]

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
540 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

.AVIATION...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE METROPLEX...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NORTH NEAR 20 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH WACO
AROUND 03Z. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FRIDAY MORNING...
AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN...OR MAYBE EVEN FREEZING RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AT
THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...BUT THE CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY FREEZING
RAIN...CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...BUT THIS IS BEYOND THE
CURRENT TAF FORECAST PERIOD.  #58

&&


.DISCUSSION...
356 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006
ARCTIC FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM FAYETTEVILLE AR TO JUST
SOUTH OF WICHITA FALLS AND PLAINVIEW. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ARE IN THE 80S...WITH DFW REACHING 85 DEGREES...BREAKING
THE OLD RECORD OF 83. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES DROP OFF
RAPIDLY INTO THE UPPER 30S IN OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE TEENS IN
NEBRASKA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX THIS
EVENING...BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DIURNAL HEATING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THIS EVENING.

PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST AREAS...AS MODERATE BUT
PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS. TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX WITH THE
RAIN IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SPREADING TO
THE METROPLEX TOWARDS THE EVENING...AND TO WACO CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. A
WINTER WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST
OF A KILLEEN TO PALESTINE LINE. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN
AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT SLEET IS POSSIBLE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...WHERE THE COLDEST AIR WILL FILTER IN. PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST ALONG THE RED RIVER. FREEZING PRECIP
WILL END AT MOST LOCATIONS BY MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CWA THROUGH MIDWEEK...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND BOUNDARIES HANG OUT
NEAR THE COAST.

[TexasStooge]

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
519 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2006

.AVIATION...
MAINTAINED PREV TAF FCST...WITH CAVEAT OF DELAYING -FZRA POTENTIAL
ACROSS D/FW TIL AFTER 00Z...AS IT LOOKS LIKE IT`LL TAKE SOME TIME
BEFORE DEEPER COLUMN SATURATION OCCURS. VERY TRICKY FCST ON WHEN
SFC TEMPS REACH SUB-FREEZING...WITH LG WARM-NOSE AROUND H85 TO
NEAR 10 DEG C...AND ARCTIC AIR BELOW 2.5 KFT. KACT WAS EVEN
TRICKIER...BUT HELD TO ALL LIQUID SUB-FREEZING SFC TEMPS SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL 12Z SAT. VFR CIGS THIS MRNG TO LWR TDY AND TNGT
INTO MVFR CAT...WITH SOME TEMPO IFR CIGS/VSBYS XPCTD MAINLY AFTER 06Z
SAT. GSTY ...GRADIENT-DRIVEN NNE WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO BTWN
9-14 KTS BY 00Z SAT/AFTER...AS PRESSURES RELAX SOMEWHAT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2006/

DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL OF N TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WAS MOVING CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST. STRONG CAA
CONTINUES BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPS IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 20S ACROSS OK. SHORT RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT SETTING UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
LASTING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE QPF FROM THE MODELS IS
LIGHT...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP WITH SURFACE TEMPS AT
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING STILL LOOKS LIKELY. BELIEVE THE LIFT
WILL TAKE LONGER TO SATURATE A DEEP ENOUGH COLUMN FOR PRECIP TO
BEGIN...SO HAVE PUSHED THE WATCH BACK A COUPLE OF HOURS FOR FAR
NRN ZONES. PRECIP SHOULD BE GOING PRETTY GOOD AFTER
00Z...ESPECIALLY TOWARD 12Z...FOR MOST OF THE CWA. AGAIN...DO NOT
EXPECT MOD OR HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT LIGHT PRECIP ACCUMULATING OVER
A LONG TIME. STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLLECTION TO
CREATE PROBLEMS ON ROADS...AND EVEN ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE WINTER
STORM WATCH. THUS...WILL KEEP WSW GOING TONIGHT AND ALLOW
AFTERNOON SHIFT TO ISSUE ANY WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF ON MONDAY...AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS...MAINLY SE...MONDAY THROUGH
WED...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD DRY OUT AND START A SLOW WARMING
TREND...WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

[TexasStooge]

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
315 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-180000-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
315 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A WINTER STORM WATCH...REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THOSE
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A
TEMPLE...MARLIN...GROESBECK...PALESTINE LINE.

LOOK FOR MOISTURE TO OVERRUN THE SHALLOW...YET VERY COLD...ARCTIC
AIR BEGINNING. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. SOME FREEZING RAIN...POSSIBLY
MIXED IN WITH SLEET NEAR THE THE RED RIVER...IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE WINTER STORM WATCH AREA...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DUE TO THE RECENT...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...THE MAIN CONCERNS
AT THIS TIME WILL BE ICY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...ALONG WITH ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ON TREES AND POWER LINES. ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WHEN A HIGHER CERTAINTY ON WINTER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IS
RESOLVED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR THOSE
AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A TEMPLE...MARLIN...
GROESBECK...PALESTINE LINE.

FREEZING RAIN...AND MAYBE EVEN SOME SLEET...WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO OVERRUN THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR. THE WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END EARLY MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE WINTER STORM
WATCH AREA TONIGHT...FOR REPORTS OF ANY ICING ACROSS THE REGION.

[TexasStooge]

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NORTH TEXAS WEATHER SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1115 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2006

TEMPERATURES WERE COLD THIS MORNING WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE 30S
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.  AT 11 AM...EXTREME TEMPERATURES INCLUDED 40
DEGREES IN TERRELL...AND 30 DEGREES IN WICHITA FALLS AND ABILENE. 
WINDS HAVE BEEN STRONG THIS MORNING OUT OF THE NORTH WITH 15 TO 20
MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.  GRAND PRAIRIE REPORTED
A 30 MPH WIND GUST.  WITH CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT GET MUCH HIGHER.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

IN ADDITION...A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY FOR NORTH TEXAS.  FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL MAKE DRIVING
CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS THIS WEEKEND.  OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES WILL
FREEZE OVER FIRST.  USE CAUTION.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
319 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2006

.DISCUSSION...
RADARS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO SHOW ONLY LIGHT REFLECTIVITY RETURNS
MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SO FAR ALL WE/VE SEEN IS JUST SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN AS TMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
ACROSS MOST OF TEH FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY
COOL...WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY SUNRISE ACROSS ALL
BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS. WEAK TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
AND AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. THE 1000-850 MB PARTIAL THICKNESS CHARTS...
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH FORECAST SURFACE TEMPERATURES
INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE FROM RAIN THIS
EVENING...TO SOME FREEZING RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET OVERNIGHT.
THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE PREDICTING LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THAN
YESTERDAYS RUNS...THUS WE HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINTER STORM
WATCH AND REPLACE IT WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE AREA
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE...TO HILLSBORO...TO CANTON
LINE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND GIVEN THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THEN...SOME TYPE OF WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

[TexasStooge]

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NORTH TEXAS WEATHER SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
340 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2006

A STRONG SURFACE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WAS LOCATED OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA CANADA TO NEBRASKA AND WAS MOVING TOWARDS THE
EAST AT SOUTHEAST AT 3 PM.  A COLD CANADIAN FRONT HAS MOVED TO
OFF SHORE SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTH TEXAS INTO AND ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW
WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA WITH A MAJOR TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO OFF SHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA. LOTS OF MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WERE STREAMING ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA
INTO COLORADO AND SPREADING RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO WEST TEXAS.
LOW LEVEL MOIST AIR WAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS AND COVERING ALL OF NORTH TEXAS.  SOME
DRIPS AND DROPS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE SCATTERED ABOUT FROM NEAR
LUBBOCK TO THE BIG BEND AND A FEW DROPS WERE OVER ISOLATED
SPOTS IN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS ARE OUT OF
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH OVER OUR ENTIRE REGION.
THE TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ALONG THE RED RIVER
TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH THIS WEEK END.

[TexasStooge]

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
340 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-181000-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
340 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS NORTH OF A
GOLDTHWAITE TO CANTON LINE LATE TONIGHT FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
AND LIGHT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE ON BRIDGES...
OVERPASSES...TREES AND POWER LINES. THE ICE MAY IMPACT SOME
TRAVELERS...BUT WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL DISRUPTION IS NOT
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT SATURDAY FOR AREAS NORTH OF A
GOLDTHWAITE TO CANTON LINE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA LATE TONIGHT FOR REPORTS OF ANY ICING.

[TexasStooge]

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
850 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2006

.UPDATE...
SHALLOW LAYER OF ARCTIC AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BUT
SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE HAS WANED FOR THE TIME
BEING. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY UNTIL PRECIPITATION
REACHES THE GROUND AND EVAPORATIONAL COOLING CAUSES A QUICK 4-5
DEGREE DROP. CURRENT WET BULB TEMPERATURES WILL GIVE A GOOD ESTIMATE
FOR THE MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT.  THEREFORE TEMPS HAVE BEEN
RAISED OVER MOST AREAS WITH LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STAYING ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT.

LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS
EVENT.  MOST RADAR ECHOES AT THIS TIME ARE IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LIFT
IN FAST SW FLOW ALOFT WITH THIS ACTIVITY NOT YET REACHING THE
GROUND.  PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH THE SURFACE BY MIDNIGHT
WITH AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.

A REINFORCING PUSH OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.  THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE RED RIVER AROUND
SUNRISE WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN.  HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
MAY BE A LITTLE WARM BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT HAVE A CLOSER LOOK
BEFORE CHANGING THEM.  DID MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO PRECIP TYPE
AND POPS THROUGH SUNDAY FOR SOME WORDING ISSUES.

TR/92

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADARS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO SHOW ONLY LIGHT REFLECTIVITY RETURNS
MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SO FAR ALL WE/VE SEEN IS JUST SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN AS TMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
ACROSS MOST OF TEH FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY
COOL...WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY SUNRISE ACROSS ALL
BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS. WEAK TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
AND AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. THE 1000-850 MB PARTIAL THICKNESS CHARTS...
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH FORECAST SURFACE TEMPERATURES
INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE FROM RAIN THIS
EVENING...TO SOME FREEZING RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET OVERNIGHT.
THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE PREDICTING LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THAN
YESTERDAYS RUNS...THUS WE HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINTER STORM
WATCH AND REPLACE IT WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE AREA
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE...TO HILLSBORO...TO CANTON
LINE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND GIVEN THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THEN...SOME TYPE OF WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

[TexasStooge]

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1005 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2006

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING THIS MORNING. HIGHS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN REACHED IN MOST AREAS...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
HOLD  NEARLY STEADY FOR THE REST OF TODAY. THE FREEZING LINE AS OF
16Z EXTENDED FROM NORTH OF SULPHUR SPRINGS...TO JUST SOUTH OF
TERRELL... TO JUST NORTH OF WACO...TO BURNET. PRECIPITATION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS BORDERLINE AT BEST...BUT AM RELUCTANT TO CANCEL IT AS
THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW ICY SPOTS IF MORE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS.
INITIAL LOOKS AT THE 12Z MODEL RUNS...INDICATE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER. #58

&&

.AVIATION...
600 AM CST

AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING UNTIL NOON...FOR FREEZING PRECIP AT DFW/DAL.
WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED...WILL MAKE DETERMINATION LATER THIS
MORNING. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SUBFREEZING MOST OF THE DAY AT METRO
APTS...SOME LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

VSBY REMAINS HIGH WITH LITTLE PRECIP OVERNIGHT LEAVING SFC LAYER
DRY. SOME LOWER VSBY IN PRECIP...OTHERWISE P6SM. CIGS MAY IMPROVE A
BIT TODAY AS COLD AIR DEEPENS...BUT DETERIORATION LIKELY TONIGHT AND
IF PRECIP IS MORE SIGNIFICANT TODAY. 25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
322 AM CST

OCCASIONAL...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...NAMELY RIGHT ABOVE THE ARCTIC
FRONTAL INVERSION WHICH IS CURRENTLY AROUND 4 KFT...WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN TO NEAR 5-6 KFT TODAY. NAMELY BECAUSE A SECONDARY SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR NOTED OVER NW TX/OK ATTM VIA OBS/SATELLITE...IS MOVING
SWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DO SO THROUGH
ALL OF N TX THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR THIS MORNING...
THEN EXPECT A STEADY FALL OF TEMPS THIS AFTN AND EVE. S/WS WILL BE
FAST MOVING THROUGH NEAR ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT WITH ANY WINTER
PRECIPITATION VERY LIGHT AND SPORADIC...BUT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ISSUES
ON PARTICULARLY SURFACES NOT WARMED BY THE GROUNDS SUCH AS SIDEWALKS
...TREES...POWER LINES...BRIDGES...AND OVER-PASSES. BY TONIGHT...
EVEN A FEW SECONDARY ROADS MAY BECOME SLICK IN SPOTS. THUS...HAVE
EXTENDED THE WSW (WINTER WX ADVISORY...SEE BELOW) THROUGH 14Z SUN
AND HAVE ADDED NAVARRO AND HENDERSON COUNTIES AS WELL PER PRECIP
TYPE PROGS. NOT A MAJOR ICE STORM BY ANY MEANS...BUT ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SOME ISSUES.

SHOULD FINALLY SEE ARCTIC DOME SLOWLY ERODE FROM W-E SUN NIGHT
INTO MON...WITH SLOW WARM UP EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVER E/SE COUNTIES WHERE SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
LINGER. A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM UP OCCURS TUES-THURS WITH TEMPS
BACK INTO THE 60S-LOWER 70S AGAIN. A DRY...MORE POLAR AIRMASS
GRAZES N TX LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT SEE VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS. ONLY
TWEAKED TRENDS ON DAYS 3 (MON)-7 (SAT).

[TexasStooge]

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NORTH TEXAS WEATHER SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1100 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2006

FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE AFFECTING NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. 
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDED SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS OVER
THE PANHANDLE...20S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND LOW 30S OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS.  A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS
NORTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE TO ATHENS LINE.  SOME PRECIPITATION IS
CURRENTLY FALLING ACROSS THE AREA.  DALLAS FORT WORTH AIRPORT IS
REPORTING FREEZING DRIZZLE...TERRELL IS REPORTING FREEZING
RAIN...AND MIXED PRECIPITATION IS FALLING IN GRANBURY.  IN
ADDITION...COMANCHE IS REPORTING LIGHT RAIN. 

PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN EASTLAND AND ABILENE ARE BECOMING
SLIPPERY IN SPOTS.  USE CAUTION...ESPECIALLY ON OVERPASSES AND
BRIDGES.

[TexasStooge]

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SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1105 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-181900-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
1105 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2006

.NOW...

FREEZING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTH TEXAS TODAY AS FAR
SOUTH AS LAMPASAS...HILLSBORO...AND ATHENS. NORTH OF THAT LINE...
THERE WILL BE A MIXTURE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...
AND PATCHY LIGHT SLEET.  A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
AREAS NORTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE TO ATHENS LINE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
 LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL AFFECT AREAS WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS
ABOVE FREEZING.

PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE SMALL AREAWIDE...AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT WHERE ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION OR SLEET OCCURS. MOST
ICE ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR ON TREES...POWER LINES...AND OTHER
EXPOSED OR ELEVATED OBJECTS. SOME BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BECOME
ICY...LONG BEFORE MAIN ROAD SURFACES BECOME TREACHEROUS.

MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION. IT MAY BE DIFFICULT
TO DETERMINE IF THERE IS ICE ON A BRIDGE OR OTHER ROAD SURFACE. AVOID
SUDDEN MOVEMENTS THAT COULD CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR
VEHICLE. GENTLY TAP BRAKES TO PREVENT SKIDDING. SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW
PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

[TexasStooge]

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1125 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2006

.AVIATION...
SEE NO REASON FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED
FZDZ/FZRA AND MVFR CIGS CONTINUE.  WILL HOLD CIGS NEAR 1000 FT
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL FZDZ/FZRA AS WELL.  WINDS
TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY SUNDAY...THUS UPSLOPE CONDITIONS COULD LEAD
TO IFR CIGS 5-800 FT AND SOME 3-5SM BR. WILL CURTAIL PCPN ON SUNDAY
AS POPS ARE VERY LOW.  75

&&

.UPDATE...
1005 AM.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING THIS MORNING. HIGHS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN REACHED IN MOST AREAS...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
HOLD  NEARLY STEADY FOR THE REST OF TODAY. THE FREEZING LINE AS OF
16Z EXTENDED FROM NORTH OF SULPHUR SPRINGS...TO JUST SOUTH OF
TERRELL... TO JUST NORTH OF WACO...TO BURNET. PRECIPITATION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS BORDERLINE AT BEST...BUT AM RELUCTANT TO CANCEL IT AS
THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW ICY SPOTS IF MORE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS.
INITIAL LOOKS AT THE 12Z MODEL RUNS...INDICATE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER. #58

&&

.AVIATION...
600 AM CST

AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING UNTIL NOON...FOR FREEZING PRECIP AT DFW/DAL.
WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED...WILL MAKE DETERMINATION LATER THIS
MORNING. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SUBFREEZING MOST OF THE DAY AT METRO
APTS...SOME LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

VSBY REMAINS HIGH WITH LITTLE PRECIP OVERNIGHT LEAVING SFC LAYER
DRY. SOME LOWER VSBY IN PRECIP...OTHERWISE P6SM. CIGS MAY IMPROVE A
BIT TODAY AS COLD AIR DEEPENS...BUT DETERIORATION LIKELY TONIGHT AND
IF PRECIP IS MORE SIGNIFICANT TODAY. 25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
322 AM CST

OCCASIONAL...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...NAMELY RIGHT ABOVE THE ARCTIC
FRONTAL INVERSION WHICH IS CURRENTLY AROUND 4 KFT...WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN TO NEAR 5-6 KFT TODAY. NAMELY BECAUSE A SECONDARY SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR NOTED OVER NW TX/OK ATTM VIA OBS/SATELLITE...IS MOVING
SWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DO SO THROUGH
ALL OF N TX THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR THIS MORNING...
THEN EXPECT A STEADY FALL OF TEMPS THIS AFTN AND EVE. S/WS WILL BE
FAST MOVING THROUGH NEAR ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT WITH ANY WINTER
PRECIPITATION VERY LIGHT AND SPORADIC...BUT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ISSUES
ON PARTICULARLY SURFACES NOT WARMED BY THE GROUNDS SUCH AS SIDEWALKS
...TREES...POWER LINES...BRIDGES...AND OVER-PASSES. BY TONIGHT...
EVEN A FEW SECONDARY ROADS MAY BECOME SLICK IN SPOTS. THUS...HAVE
EXTENDED THE WSW (WINTER WX ADVISORY...SEE BELOW) THROUGH 14Z SUN
AND HAVE ADDED NAVARRO AND HENDERSON COUNTIES AS WELL PER PRECIP
TYPE PROGS. NOT A MAJOR ICE STORM BY ANY MEANS...BUT ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SOME ISSUES.

SHOULD FINALLY SEE ARCTIC DOME SLOWLY ERODE FROM W-E SUN NIGHT
INTO MON...WITH SLOW WARM UP EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVER E/SE COUNTIES WHERE SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
LINGER. A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM UP OCCURS TUES-THURS WITH TEMPS
BACK INTO THE 60S-LOWER 70S AGAIN. A DRY...MORE POLAR AIRMASS
GRAZES N TX LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT SEE VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS. ONLY
TWEAKED TRENDS ON DAYS 3 (MON)-7 (SAT).

[TexasStooge]

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
329 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2006

.DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES
TO BE LIGHT...PRIMARILY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE BEST LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE TO OUR NORTH DURING NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. HAVE KEPT
THE BEST POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER...WITH LOWER POPS FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. WE WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW...THOUGH
WE ONLY EXPECT VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS...PROBABLY ONLY A FEW ONE HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH AT BEST...WITH MAYBE A LITTLE MORE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE RED
RIVER.

[TexasStooge]

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NORTH TEXAS WEATHER SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
355 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2006

A STRONG SURFACE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA
AND IOWA AT 3 PM.  THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS
WEAKENED BUT CONTINUES TO SPREAD UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER NORTH
TEXAS.  VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN SEVERAL FORMS HAVE FALLEN
OVER THE REGION...VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...VERY LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE...LIGHT SLEET OR ICE PELLETS...AND SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION WITH THE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH.  THE
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS TO
THE UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS.

[TexasStooge]

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SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
530 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-190130-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
530 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2006

.NOW...

FREEZING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING
AS FAR SOUTH AS TEMPLE...CORSICANA...AND ATHENS. NORTH OF THAT
LINE...THERE ARE STILL A FEW AREAS RECEIVING A MIXTURE OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND PATCHY LIGHT SLEET.  A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS NORTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE TO
ATHENS LINE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE MAY
AFFECT AREAS WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS ABOVE FREEZING.

PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE SMALL AREAWIDE...AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT WHERE ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION OR SLEET OCCURS. MOST
ICE ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR ON TREES...POWER LINES...AND OTHER
EXPOSED OR ELEVATED OBJECTS. SOME BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BECOME
ICY...LONG BEFORE MAIN ROAD SURFACES BECOME TREACHEROUS.

MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION. IT MAY BE DIFFICULT
TO DETERMINE IF THERE IS ICE ON A BRIDGE OR OTHER ROAD SURFACE. AVOID
SUDDEN MOVEMENTS THAT COULD CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR
VEHICLE. GENTLY TAP BRAKES TO PREVENT SKIDDING. SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW
PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

[Mattie]

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS EXTENDED UNTIL 6 PM SUN
AFTERNOON.ALONG & NO. OF A LINE FROM GOLDTHWAITE. TO
HILLSBORO.TO CORSICANA.TO ATHENS.

SYNOPSIS.LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE.WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN.& SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT SLEET CONTINUES ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA. TEMPS WILL NOT RISE ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON & THUS THE ADVISORY EXTENSION. ICE IS FORMING
ON ELEVATED STRUCTURES SUCH AS BRIDGES & OVERPASSES.AND
PATCHY ICE IS ALSO DEPOSITING ALONG ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD USE
MAX CAUTION.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>146-191100-
/O.EXT.KFWD.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-060220T0000Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF.BOWIE.NOCONA.GAINESVILLE.
SHERMAN.DENISON.BONHAM.PARIS.GRAHAM.OLNEY.JACKSBORO.
DECATUR.BRIDGEPORT.DENTON.LEWISVILLE.FLWR MOUND.
THE COLONY.PLANO.GREENVILLE.COMMERCE.COOPER.
SULPHUR SPRINGS.BRECKENRIDGE.MINERAL WELLS.WEATHERFORD.
BRIAR.FORT WORTH.ARLINGTON.DALLAS.ROCKWALL.TERRELL.
KAUFMAN.FORNEY.WILLS POINT.CANTON.GRAND SALINE.VAN.
EDGEWOOD.EMORY.POINT.EAST TAWAKONI.CISCO.EASTLAND.
RANGER.GORMAN.STEPHENVILLE.DUBLIN.GRANBURY.
OAK TRAIL SHORES.GLEN ROSE.CLEBURNE.BURLESON.WAXAHACHIE.
ENNIS.MIDLOTHIAN.GLENN HEIGHTS.ATHENS.GUN BARREL CITY.
COMANCHE.DE LEON.GOLDTHWAITE.HAMILTON.HICO.CLIFTON.
MERIDIAN.VALLEY MILLS.HILLSBORO.CORSICANA
814 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2006

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS EXTENDED UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY. ICE
IS DEPOSITING ON BRIDGES & OVERPASSES.& ALSO ON SOME
ROADWAYS. USE MAX CAUTION WHEN DRIVING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN.FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SLEET WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES.
BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS & USE EXTRA CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING ACROSS BRIDGES & OVERPASSES.

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
915 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2006

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR FALL ANOTHER DEGREE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.  MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR THE INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE.  IN ADDITION...SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY ALONG A BAND
FROM WICHITA FALLS TO JUST SOUTH OF LUBBOCK AS MOISTURE FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL JET AND WEAK LIFT INTERACT.  THIS MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WILL PASS ACROSS THE NW CWA AND RED RIVER COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT...AND THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE CONFINED.

TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH NOW THAT ROADS MAY START TO ICE OVER
WHERE THE DRIZZLE IS HEAVY ENOUGH.  WE ARE GETTING REPORTS OF SOME
ICY ROADS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH SEVERAL ACCIDENTS.  THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY.  WE WILL
ALSO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH 3 PM WHERE
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE AS WELL.  WARMER 850 TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL RISE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS A RESULT.  HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND PRECIP
TYPE THROUGH MONDAY IN LIGHT OF THIS FACT.

TR/92


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES
TO BE LIGHT...PRIMARILY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE BEST LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE TO OUR NORTH DURING NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. HAVE KEPT
THE BEST POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER...WITH LOWER POPS FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. WE WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW...THOUGH
WE ONLY EXPECT VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS...PROBABLY ONLY A FEW ONE HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH AT BEST...WITH MAYBE A LITTLE MORE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE RED
RIVER.

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
600 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2006

.AVIATION...
600 AM CST

CEILINGS LOWERING AND -FZDZ BCMG MORE WIDESPREAD. EXPECT SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TODAY. UPSLOPE WINDS AROUND MIDDAY MAY HELP SOME IFR
CIGS LINGER BEYOND CURRENT MENTION. ONLY CARRYING LIGHT PRECIP UNTIL
18-19Z. TEMPS WILL BREAK 32F AT WACO AT THAT TIME...METRO APTS
SOMETIME DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAY NEED TO EXTEND AWW IF PRECIP
CONTINUES BEYOND CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME OF WARNING...10 AM. WINDS
WILL START VEERING THIS MORNING...SPEEDS REMAINING LIGHT. 25

&&

.DISCUSSION...
409 AM CST

VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT FOG AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND PERHAPS LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL. MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA AND POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST WHERE
BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT EXISTS. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION HAS CEASED
AND RADIATION FROM THE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER CLOUD BEARING LAYER
AND HEAT FROM THE GROUND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR AT THE END OF THE
VERIFICATION PERIOD (7 PM) AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE SET
THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM OVERNIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY DUE TO TRAVEL PROBLEMS
CREATED BY TRACE AMOUNTS OF ICING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS INCREDIBLY
DIFFICULT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE CLOUD COVER AND
EROSION OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. MODELS ARE LIKELY TOO QUICK TO
ERODE THE ARCTIC AIR AND DISPERSE THE CLOUD DECK AND WILL FORECAST
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AND WARM SIDE
FOR LOWS. FOR CHANCES OF RAIN...GFS SEEMS TO BE A WET OUTLIER FOR
TUESDAY AND WILL UNDERCUT MAV POPS. UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE EAST AND AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND POPS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THIS TIME FRAME.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW A WEAK FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN NEXT WEEKEND BEHIND ANOTHER FRONT.