Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Ntxw]

12Z euro is following the latest GFS. Precip is falling at sub 0C 850mb temps (very cold aloft) underneath a trowal of the wrapping low. Surface temps still look warm though 40s. I'd say start watching this system on guidance later this week. The storm will be crashing onshore in the next few days, guidance is showing sub 550s dm low pressure system...

[Ntxw]

low heights with some ridging near Hudson Bay

[Ntxw]

This is looking a lot like what happened in November. The first half of the month was tranquil and mild followed by the -SOI crash (storm) then shift of the EPO region from GOA low heights into GOA ridging. Heights in this storm is a lot lower than the November TG weekend system though so it will be cold aloft.

Now



Transition through next week. You can see the North Pacific has flipped 180



Interesting Buffalo New York has yet to see measurable snow. Wouldn't it be wild to have southern plains cities see measurable snow before they do? I believe they broke a 100 year record for latest measurable snowfall

[TheProfessor]

This is looking a lot like what happened in November. The first half of the month was tranquil and mild followed by the -SOI crash (storm) then shift of the EPO region from GOA low heights into GOA ridging. Heights in this storm is a lot lower than the November TG weekend system though so it will be cold aloft.

Now

http://i68.tinypic.com/vctbix.png

Transition through next week. You can see the North Pacific has flipped 180

http://i64.tinypic.com/16gbhuc.png

Interesting Buffalo New York has yet to see measurable snow. Wouldn't it be wild to have southern plains cities see measurable snow before they do? I believe they broke a 100 year record for latest measurable snowfall

Yeah most of that snow came from the lake effect storm that dropped 6-7 ft of snow over the area. Lake effect season will likely be extended this year for that area as the lakes are much warmer than at this point last year.

[Brent]

[gpsnowman]

An 80 just popped up for Friday on the NBC5 7 day. Sigh

[texas1836]

No worries. From what I've been reading, the temps will be slipping downward shortly after Friday.

[CaptinCrunch]

An 80 just popped up for Friday on the NBC5 7 day. Sigh

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 79. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 61.

Saturday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70.

Saturday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 54.

Typical between weather patterns temp range, close to 80 Friday, Fireplace needed Sunday

[Tireman4]

HGX:
TodaySunny, with a high near 69. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
TonightMostly clear, with a low around 45. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
TuesdaySunny, with a high near 71. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday NightMostly clear, with a low around 51. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight.
WednesdayMostly sunny, with a high near 75. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph.
Wednesday NightPartly cloudy, with a low around 56.
ThursdayMostly sunny, with a high near 77.
Thursday NightPartly cloudy, with a low around 64.
FridayPartly sunny, with a high near 78.
Friday NightA 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66.
SaturdayA 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76.
Saturday NightA 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55.
SundayA 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 64.

[texas1836]

I prefer to have the north Texas weather. Like CaptinCrunch, wood stove again. It's hard to be Humble when you're from Hum...ble, ok, bad joke.

[Tireman4]

I prefer to have the north Texas weather. Like CaptinCrunch, wood stove again. It's hard to be Humble when you're from Hum...ble, ok, bad joke.

Yeah..the town is...interesting...I have lived here since March 2004....LOL

Edit: It is pronounced Humble..the H is silent....LOL

[TheProfessor]

An interesting article tweeted by the University of Oklahoma's emergency preparedness about the El Ninos of 1939-42 and storminess in the pacific saving the USS Enterprise from Pearl Harbor.

http://www.ou.edu/content/emergencyprep ... ather.html

[orangeblood]

Most long range guidance suggests Northwest Canada into Alaska will be under the gun for a Siberian onslaught over the next couple of weeks, potentially setting the stage for an interesting Holiday period in the lower 48

[JDawg512]

For an El Niño December, we aren't seeing very El Niño like weather..

It is very El Nino like actually. Especially for the Super Nino's. December is not a cold month North America is often flooded with warmth as seen and the Pacific NW is be blasted by heavy rain as with the extended Pacific jet in +ENSO. Again remember to look back at page 1 where I did a composite of the strong Nino signals. We like to think of the wet and cold Decembers like 2009 is El Nino but actually that was a freak anomaly of the AO. La Nina's are often the cold Decembers like 1983.


We have to be very careful when using Nino/Nina for day to day and sometimes even weekly weather patterns. it is a seasonal forecasting tool, just look back at October and the year as a whole. Eventually the +precipitation anomalies won out thanks to the background low frequency effects of ENSO. Amongst other things that controls day to day weather.

The latest interesting thing for me is, at it's current strength the Nino may not fade as quickly as anticipated. We may see these +rain anomalies extend through spring of next year...that is a very good sign.

I actually should have been more detailed because I started mentioning the temps then said we aren't seeing a very El Niño December but I was referring more to rain not so much the temps. Correct me if in wrong but wasn't 2009/10 more of a western based niño? Those would tend be colder but I'm remembering 91 especially and that was a very wet December with lots of flooding.

I agree that this event will be extended, I don't think water temps will lower as fast as some of the models show.

I'm interested on your take of the longer term PDO and whether it will stay positive or revert negative? It would be ideal for it to stay positive but I've been reading different opinions on the subject.

[Ntxw]

I'm interested on your take of the longer term PDO and whether it will stay positive or revert negative? It would be ideal for it to stay positive but I've been reading different opinions on the subject.

I'm very interested in the PDO as well and in true honesty I have no idea where that will go. CFSv2 shows it maintaining +PDO through late spring but as with anything that kind of long term by the models should always be taken with caution. For now I'd use consistency since it has been positive since January 2014


As other's have mentioned on here it's going to get quite mild for a few days before the storm comes out of the southwest. Interesting that the PNA has been positive to start the month but the eastern half of the country is under a torch, to no surprise though the EPO has been positive the entire time as well. PNA will move negative after the passage of the weekend system and we will be able to see more systems passing through with that -PNA look as that signal is stormy for us

[Ralph's Weather]

I took a look at the GFS strat plats and while our mid month system does not have much of a connection with the PV the one early Christmas week seems to as the PV elongates towards us. I am far from an expert on this and there is not a major SSW that I see there appears to be a connection which should bring down some cold though the does not get below 32 with it.

[wxman57]

12Z EC has a trace of snow in the TX Panhandle next weekend. No big deal. Coldest temps in the low-mid 30s in the D-FW area early next week, with upper 30s to low 40s across Houston.

[gpsnowman]

12Z EC has a trace of snow in the TX Panhandle next weekend. No big deal. Coldest temps in the low-mid 30s in the D-FW area early next week, with upper 30s to low 40s across Houston.

Hee hee, come on 57, upper 30's to low 40's in Houston is a huge deal. I do like the fact you think some winter weather will hit Texas at some point this winter. When it comes down to it you always speak the truth when it comes to weather. Always appreciate your input and vast knowledge of the topic we all love. Houston will see snow this winter, and winter bike tire chains will be a hot seller from January to early March. Invest now.

[BigB0882]

I will be going out of the country December 21-26 so you all in the south are guaranteed a white Christmas. You are welcome.

[gboudx]

I will be going out of the country December 21-26 so you all in the south are guaranteed a white Christmas. You are welcome.

Thanks. We'll be back home in NOLA with family. Though Southshore sneaux is harder to come by.