Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Brent]

RAP shifts south a bit. And carves out a perfect notch to screw DFW.

It has 36F over the heat island . Skew-T is a snow profile except for immediately at the ground. Snows all around!

I'm still not understanding why if that's heavy precip why it wouldn't be heavy snow I know in the past I've seen and heard of heavy snow in the upper 30s

[WacoWx]

What time do the hi res models come out? I’m tired of hitting refresh

[Ntxw]

What time do the hi res models come out? I’m tired of hitting refresh

HRRR is hourly top of the hour it starts. 0z is running now and goes out far. NAM within an hour or so too.

We'll be watching radar out in west Texas in a few hours.

[Brent]

The HRRR looks so good moving in and then it's rain in Dallas

[cheezyWXguy]

The HRRR looks so good moving in and then it's rain in Dallas

https://i.ibb.co/sgczNnr/hrrr-ref-frzn-scus-20.png

I don’t buy it. Temp is 39 before precip onset, which may already be high, and a dew point of 31 and temps well below freezing everywhere but the surface. Then as precip occurs, the temp stays the same and the dew point rises?

[Brent]

The HRRR looks so good moving in and then it's rain in Dallas

https://i.ibb.co/sgczNnr/hrrr-ref-frzn-scus-20.png

I don’t buy it. Temp is 39 before precip onset, which may already be high, and a dew point of 31 and temps well below freezing everywhere but the surface. Then as precip occurs, the temp stays the same and the dew point rises?

Yeah I find that solution very hard to believe

[Coffey1275]

Just wanted to give a quick shout out to the group who post on here every year. I have been following this Texas Winter thread since 2016, I do not post at all, only. because I know so very little but since moving here from the Seattle/Tacoma area back in '94 I have been fascinated with weather. Prior to '94 I had no idea how glorious thunderstorms could be or how complicated and grateful we should be down here in Texas when a winter event occurs. Thank you all for the insight and enthusiasm year in and year out. I have even learned a few things since originally following back in 2016. Great group here and hope everyone is able to experience the magic of any winter event that occurs here in the Texas area period. I cannot wait to see what tomorrow brings, even if it is just flakes, it really makes you appreciate these events more when they are rare. Keep up the great work!

[Cerlin]

HRRR tends to run slightly warm close to events anyway. I’m worried about a bust for DFW just given the last 5 years but I’m hopeful the HRRR is wrong about those temperatures.

[jaguars_22]

Don’t look now but the euro and other models are starting to hint at some flakes for us in Victoria... I’ve been watching constantly and seeing most models leaning towards at least some action more and more south. I may see something here before it’s all done

[Portastorm]

I’m beginning to think that 1-2” of snow for Austin by tomorrow night is a distinct possibility. That 0z HRRR run got my attention. And if that happened it would be the heaviest snowfall in 17 years.

[Ntxw]

The HRRR looks so good moving in and then it's rain in Dallas

https://i.ibb.co/sgczNnr/hrrr-ref-frzn-scus-20.png

I don’t buy it. Temp is 39 before precip onset, which may already be high, and a dew point of 31 and temps well below freezing everywhere but the surface. Then as precip occurs, the temp stays the same and the dew point rises?

Yeah I find that solution very hard to believe

Lucky the NAM isn't quite there with those warm surface temps. The globals had it... the reason 33-34 vs 35-37 makes a difference on the maps. Could it happen? Sure but the warm (relatively speaking to freezing) surface temps is very shallow. If it was warmer then it wouldn't just be a DFW problem but up and down I-35.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

FWIW...

[txtwister78]

I’m beginning to think that 1-2” of snow for Austin by tomorrow night is a distinct possibility. That 0z HRRR run got my attention. And if that happened it would be the heaviest snowfall in 17 years.

Decent QPF and 850mb temps primed for that area when heavier precip forecasted. Could create a quick burst. Maybe even some isolated totals higher.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I’m beginning to think that 1-2” of snow for Austin by tomorrow night is a distinct possibility. That 0z HRRR run got my attention. And if that happened it would be the heaviest snowfall in 17 years.

Heyoooo! Donuts in porta’s neighborhood

[Cerlin]

I’m beginning to think that 1-2” of snow for Austin by tomorrow night is a distinct possibility. That 0z HRRR run got my attention. And if that happened it would be the heaviest snowfall in 17 years.

You’re long overdue buddy!

[cheezyWXguy]

3k nam seems to handle the temps much more reasonably. 38/32 in Dallas pre-onset, immediately falling to 34/33 post.

[benrayrog]

Lots of us hanging out in here tonight and no doubt wearing out F5.

[HockeyTx82]

Spent the day at Dinosaur Valley SP. Beautiful weather. Was thinking how nice it would covered in snow.

[Texas Snow]

ooff...was hyped for the WWA then realized Collin County wasn't listed. May have to head over to Highland Village to partake in the higher accumulation.

Yep, I am in Collin just on border of Dallas County. I’m pretty sure we are packing up in the morning and heading to the lake which is in Henderson county just SE of Dallas County (not quite all the way to Athens). Still showing as watch but even their graphic says likely to be upgraded this afternoon.

I’m just playing the odds of best chance for multi inch snow. Hope I’m right.

So I just looked at the winter storm watch wording for Henderson county. Given the amounts in the wording, I am trying to figure out why they didn’t go with a warning. Only thing I can think of is confidence level is low, but then why put these numbers out there? It’s a small area they are talking about so not like a broad 20 county area where amounts could vary greatly.

Any thoughts? I’m kind of expecting it’s changed to advisory or warning by 10 but who knows...

Henderson-Anderson-
Including the cities of Athens, Gun Barrel City, and Palestine
130 PM CST Sat Jan 9 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5
inches possible, with isolated amounts of greater than 5 inches.

* WHERE...Anderson and Henderson Counties.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through late Sunday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

[Brent]

ooff...was hyped for the WWA then realized Collin County wasn't listed. May have to head over to Highland Village to partake in the higher accumulation.

Yep, I am in Collin just on border of Dallas County. I’m pretty sure we are packing up in the morning and heading to the lake which is in Henderson county just SE of Dallas County (not quite all the way to Athens). Still showing as watch but even their graphic says likely to be upgraded this afternoon.

I’m just playing the odds of best chance for multi inch snow. Hope I’m right.

So I just looked at the winter storm watch wording for Henderson county. Given the amounts in the wording, I am trying to figure out why they didn’t go with a warning. Only thing I can think of is confidence level is low, but then why put these numbers out there? It’s a small area they are talking about so not like a broad 20 county area where amounts could vary greatly.

Any thoughts? I’m kind of expecting it’s changed to advisory or warning by 10 but who knows...

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5
inches possible, with isolated amounts of greater than 5 inches.

* WHERE...Anderson and Henderson Counties.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through late Sunday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

They said in the AFD earlier it's because the snow starts a lot later there they will almost certainly have theirs soon