Texas Winter 2022-2023

[TheProfessor]

This seems to be another case where models just don't understand the path that cold air takes when it hits the Plains. Maybe we should create an AI, have it memorize the song Oklahoma! "OOOOk-lahoma, where the wind comes sweepin' down the plain," and maybe after that it can input that line into the models so that they know to have cold air sweep down the Plains. What do y'all think?

[Ralph's Weather]

This seems to be another case where models just don't understand the path that cold air takes when it hits the Plains. Maybe we should create an AI, have it memorize the song Oklahoma! "OOOOk-lahoma, where the wind comes sweepin' down the plain," and maybe after that it can input that line into the models so that they know to have cold air sweep down the Plains. What do y'all think?

Exactly. Cold air drains downhill. Next week may be significantly colder and that cold will likely arrive faster and take longer to moderate than models show.

[opticsguy]

Looking at the GFS more than a week out, I use the temperature forecast for OKC to reflect DFW temperatures. Except for Feb 2021 it has worked fairly well.

[Iceresistance]

This seems to be another case where models just don't understand the path that cold air takes when it hits the Plains. Maybe we should create an AI, have it memorize the song Oklahoma! "OOOOk-lahoma, where the wind comes sweepin' down the plain," and maybe after that it can input that line into the models so that they know to have cold air sweep down the Plains. What do y'all think?

LOL
That would be really good and funny!

[bubba hotep]

00z Euro EPS is very interesting for DFW. The mean shows 2 days below freezing but beyond that there is a pretty impressive cold cluster. It shows 6 days below freezing with a double dip bottoming back out on the 28th after a brief "warm up" and it has a pretty strong snow signal around the 25-27th.

[Texas Snow]

Looking at the GFS more than a week out, I use the temperature forecast for OKC to reflect DFW temperatures. Except for Feb 2021 it has worked fairly well.

Interesting. I’m gonna start paying attention to this. Thanks.

[Cpv17]

I just thought of something. Do y’all remember when we talked about the GFS being like 10–15 degrees too warm? Does that still apply or has that been fixed?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I just thought of something. Do y’all remember when we talked about the GFS being like 10–15 degrees too warm? Does that still apply or has that been fixed?

IF the Highs on models verify, everything will likely be too warm. Especially with a good snowpack across the plains.

[rwfromkansas]

I think it’s Mike Morgan but saw that an OKC met said it is the strongest front he’s ever seen.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I think it’s Mike Morgan but saw that an OKC met said it is the strongest front he’s ever seen.

Isn’t he the guy that posts like a 15 year old girl on social media?

I’m starting to get a Canadian/Euro blend based on how they line up versus a progressive GFS.

[wxman57]

Overnight runs continue the story of a run-of-the-mill winter cold front. Nothing special. While it is not uncommon for models to lose the cold air in this time frame, they don't usually drive the front through at all. This is not February, with very cold ground temperatures. The cold air will be flowing over much warmer ground than it would in February. Temps on the meteograms don't look too bad, to me. Wouldn't rule out 5-10 deg colder, but I wouldn't forecast that, either. 00Z GFS does indicate a pocket of moisture moving across the D-FW area on Christmas Eve, which could produce a few snow flakes if it materializes.

"Strongest front I've ever seen"?? Was Mike Morgan born last month? The front doesn't even exist yet.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Overnight runs continue the story of a run-of-the-mill winter cold front. Nothing special. While it is not uncommon for models to lose the cold air in this time frame, they don't usually drive the front through at all. This is not February, with very cold ground temperatures. The cold air will be flowing over much warmer ground than it would in February. Temps on the meteograms don't look too bad, to me. Wouldn't rule out 5-10 deg colder, but I wouldn't forecast that, either.

"Strongest front I've ever seen"?? Was Mike Morgan born last month?

http://wxman57.com/images/IAHGFS6ZDec15.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/DFWGFS6ZDec15.JPG

Well, you are using the warmest model of the bunch. The one that’s way too progressive.

[orangeblood]

Regardless of surface maps, the 1064mb along the US/Canadian border (Montana part) would tie the all time HP record on 0z GFS.

Sliding right down the spine of the Rockies, not many jet configurations can influence it much one it starts that treck south

I have no doubt about the cold. Even a glancing blow will be plenty cold. Want to see a disturbance sneak in. Will not need much qpf to generate decent snow cover.

Exactly what happened New Years Eve 2000, sneaky system came down out of the NW flow with very little moisture to work with...ended up producing a wide swath of 1-3 inches across North Texas into N. Louisiana

Best Analog by far

[wxman57]

Overnight runs continue the story of a run-of-the-mill winter cold front. Nothing special. While it is not uncommon for models to lose the cold air in this time frame, they don't usually drive the front through at all. This is not February, with very cold ground temperatures. The cold air will be flowing over much warmer ground than it would in February. Temps on the meteograms don't look too bad, to me. Wouldn't rule out 5-10 deg colder, but I wouldn't forecast that, either.

"Strongest front I've ever seen"?? Was Mike Morgan born last month?

http://wxman57.com/images/IAHGFS6ZDec15.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/DFWGFS6ZDec15.JPG

Well, you are using the warmest model of the bunch. The one that’s way too progressive.

I don't have the high-res data for other models. Link is below. I may start up my spreadsheet to track model forecasts like I did with the last few freezes. I won't have data every 3 hours, and I can only pick certain points off the Pivotal Weather maps, but it would be something to compare.

Euro has temps down to the teens in the D-FW area and around 20 in Houston. Canadian is similar to the GFS. Canadian was too cold last February. Cold, but not extreme and not very uncommon.

https://www.ready.noaa.gov/READYcmetus.php

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Sliding right down the spine of the Rockies, not many jet configurations can influence it much one it starts that treck south

I have no doubt about the cold. Even a glancing blow will be plenty cold. Want to see a disturbance sneak in. Will not need much qpf to generate decent snow cover.

Exactly what happened New Years Eve 2000, sneaky system came down out of the NW flow with very little moisture to work with...ended up producing a wide swath of 1-3 inches across North Texas into N. Louisiana

Best Analog by far

https://psl.noaa.gov/tmp/narr/45.17.124.164.348.6.44.20.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/namer/z500_anom/1671084000/1671872400-C1h2pNiR4Lw.png

I was at the snow bowl in Shreveport on NYE between MSU and A&M. Solid 6 inches and blizzard like

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Overnight runs continue the story of a run-of-the-mill winter cold front. Nothing special. While it is not uncommon for models to lose the cold air in this time frame, they don't usually drive the front through at all. This is not February, with very cold ground temperatures. The cold air will be flowing over much warmer ground than it would in February. Temps on the meteograms don't look too bad, to me. Wouldn't rule out 5-10 deg colder, but I wouldn't forecast that, either.

"Strongest front I've ever seen"?? Was Mike Morgan born last month?

http://wxman57.com/images/IAHGFS6ZDec15.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/DFWGFS6ZDec15.JPG

Well, you are using the warmest model of the bunch. The one that’s way too progressive.

I don't have the high-res data for other models. Link is below. I may start up my spreadsheet to track model forecasts like I did with the last few freezes. I won't have data every 3 hours, and I can only pick certain points off the Pivotal Weather maps, but it would be something to compare.

Euro has temps down to the teens in the D-FW area and around 20 in Houston. Canadian is similar to the GFS. Canadian was too cold last February. Cold, but not extreme and not very uncommon.

https://www.ready.noaa.gov/READYcmetus.php

We would appreciate that, if you can!

[Tireman4]

Overnight runs continue the story of a run-of-the-mill winter cold front. Nothing special. While it is not uncommon for models to lose the cold air in this time frame, they don't usually drive the front through at all. This is not February, with very cold ground temperatures. The cold air will be flowing over much warmer ground than it would in February. Temps on the meteograms don't look too bad, to me. Wouldn't rule out 5-10 deg colder, but I wouldn't forecast that, either. 00Z GFS does indicate a pocket of moisture moving across the D-FW area on Christmas Eve, which could produce a few snow flakes if it materializes.

"Strongest front I've ever seen"?? Was Mike Morgan born last month? The front doesn't even exist yet.

http://wxman57.com/images/IAHGFS6ZDec15.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/DFWGFS6ZDec15.JPG

Could your jet be fueled up, Sir?

[rwfromkansas]

I think it’s Mike Morgan but saw that an OKC met said it is the strongest front he’s ever seen.

Isn’t he the guy that posts like a 15 year old girl on social media?

I’m starting to get a Canadian/Euro blend based on how they line up versus a progressive GFS.

I have heard bad things about him here. Lol. I don’t follow him that’s just what I read.

[gboudx]

This is from Jeff Lindner.

Late Next Week:
Deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to support the unleashing of an arctic air mass into the US around the middle of next week with an arrival into TX around the 22nd. This cold air mass is driven by a significant 1050-1065mb arctic high pressure dome that develops over NW Canada later this weekend and sinks southward toward the US/Montana border early next week. Some of the deterministic model runs want to push the arctic air more east with a glancing (still cold) blow across TX. Historical analogs suggest that once this air mass begins to move southward it is coming south fast and cold as global models tend to struggle with the extreme density of such air masses and are historically too warm and slow with the arrival of such air masses into the southern plains. Still need to see how cold the air mass becomes this weekend in NW Canada before having a decent idea of how cold temperatures will be in the southern plains and TX late next week.

For now will go with an arrival of the arctic front across SE TX on the 22nd/23rd with significantly colder temperatures. Averaging out the various longer range guidance outputs suggests at least 2-3 nights below freezing over the entire area with highs in the 30’s around Christmas Eve/Day. This may need to be trended colder as the intensity of this air mass comes into better focus early next week. The NAM usually does a good job with these sorts of air masses and we are still 3-4 days before coming into the view of that guidance. For now much of the global guidance is fairly dry behind the arctic front, so at the moment no entertainment of freezing or frozen precipitation.

[TheProfessor]

Another note, the snowpack up north continues to build. Many areas now have a snow depth of 8-20" with another 4-12" expected to fall. We're going to see a widespread snowdepth from Montana to Wisconsin of 4-30" and it's not going to melt. Models will definitely be playing catchup with how fast the cold comes.