Texas Winter 2020-2021

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rwfromkansas
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#1561 Postby rwfromkansas » Sat Jan 09, 2021 4:12 pm

Slight expansion north on 18Z NAM and major expansion north of 1-3 inch area on 3k NAM. I am starting to feel decent here in north Fort Worth.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#1562 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 09, 2021 4:19 pm

Hey guys how about some man-made Lake-enhanced/effect snow behind everything after scanning TTwrf again. For Quixotic. Texoma-Ray Roberts-Lewisville.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#1563 Postby Texas Snow » Sat Jan 09, 2021 4:24 pm

Ntxw wrote:Hey guys how about some man-made Lake-enhanced/effect snow behind everything after scanning TTwrf again. For Quixotic. Texoma-Ray Roberts-Lewisville.

https://i.imgur.com/9G5hfNF.png


I still have a radar shot somewhere with lake affect snow off Lewisville and many others from a few years back. I could see it from my house even though it was sunny here.

Found it

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#1564 Postby missygirl810 » Sat Jan 09, 2021 4:42 pm

Ntxw wrote:For those of you in Collin (all the northern counties really) worried your benefit will be the trowal feature snow. These things can be underestimated by guidance until nearly real time and they can drop a lot of steady snow over a long period of time. It may not be the fast dumping but it's some of the best in a system.



Hope so!!! Come on Hunt Co lol!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#1565 Postby Quixotic » Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:30 pm

Ntxw wrote:Hey guys how about some man-made Lake-enhanced/effect snow behind everything after scanning TTwrf again. For Quixotic. Texoma-Ray Roberts-Lewisville.

https://i.imgur.com/9G5hfNF.png


Happened last year in January 11th.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#1566 Postby gpsnowman » Sat Jan 09, 2021 6:01 pm

Kinda quiet in here. Making me nervous. :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#1567 Postby Cerlin » Sat Jan 09, 2021 6:11 pm

gpsnowman wrote:Kinda quiet in here. Making me nervous. :D

Just cuz we’re in nowcasting mode! Models aren’t really that different or much help anymore!
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#1568 Postby orangeblood » Sat Jan 09, 2021 6:13 pm

gpsnowman wrote:Kinda quiet in here. Making me nervous. :D


Won’t know much until this evenings Hi Res model runs that bring us closer to its more accurate strike zone, which should be in a few hrs...just watching for any significant changes otherwise just a waiting game
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#1569 Postby Brent » Sat Jan 09, 2021 6:18 pm

gpsnowman wrote:Kinda quiet in here. Making me nervous. :D


Calm before the storm :spam: :double:
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#1570 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 09, 2021 6:19 pm

If you're bored waiting, our model of choice the GFS is still hinting at potentially another winter weather event in about 7-10 days (next Sunday-Monday). Euro isn't as enthused but does have a powerful trough coming through so we'll see where that leads.

This falls in line with winter 2020-2021 blocking of a snow storm every week!
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#1571 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sat Jan 09, 2021 6:23 pm

Ntxw wrote:If you're bored waiting, our model of choice the GFS is still hinting at potentially another winter weather event in about 7-10 days (next Sunday-Monday). Euro isn't as enthused but does have a powerful trough coming through so we'll see where that leads.

This falls in line with winter 2020-2021 blocking of a snow storm every week!

I saw hints of that, but haven't paid it much attention yet. By wed or Thu hopefully we are able to start hyping it up.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#1572 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 09, 2021 6:24 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:
Ntxw wrote:If you're bored waiting, our model of choice the GFS is still hinting at potentially another winter weather event in about 7-10 days (next Sunday-Monday). Euro isn't as enthused but does have a powerful trough coming through so we'll see where that leads.

This falls in line with winter 2020-2021 blocking of a snow storm every week!

I saw hints of that, but haven't paid it much attention yet. By wed or Thu hopefully we are able to start hyping it up.


For the record this was view from a week ago on this current storm. Fingers crossed! :darrow:

Ntxw wrote:Here we go again with some guidance pushing for snow next weekend. But caveat is that 6-7 days away right now and Euro not quite on board yet.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#1573 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sat Jan 09, 2021 6:29 pm

With established blocking this winter we will likely see clusters of storms as the pattern locks in for weeks at a time.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#1574 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 09, 2021 6:33 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:With established blocking this winter we will likely see clusters of storms as the pattern locks in for weeks at a time.


The blocking isn't going anywhere. The recent SSW is likely a byproduct of the tropospheric blocking in place that only is feedback to reinforce it. It's one of those winters. We are seeing improvements in the Pacific that so far has helped. The sustained West Atlantic-Northeast Canadian block is going to end up with the lore years. It's just a matter of the Pacific hose retracting a bit to help.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#1575 Postby Brent » Sat Jan 09, 2021 6:40 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:With established blocking this winter we will likely see clusters of storms as the pattern locks in for weeks at a time.


The blocking isn't going anywhere. The recent SSW is likely a byproduct of the tropospheric blocking in place that only is feedback to reinforce it. It's one of those winters. We are seeing improvements in the Pacific that so far has helped. The sustained West Atlantic-Northeast Canadian block is going to end up with the lore years. It's just a matter of the Pacific hose retracting a bit to help.


Hey if Oklahoma can get multiple storms why can't we :cheesy:
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#1576 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sat Jan 09, 2021 6:52 pm

RAP shifts south a bit. And carves out a perfect notch to screw DFW.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#1577 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 09, 2021 6:58 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:RAP shifts south a bit. And carves out a perfect notch to screw DFW.


It has 36F over the heat island :lol:. Skew-T is a snow profile except for immediately at the ground. Snows all around!
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#1578 Postby weatherdude1108 » Sat Jan 09, 2021 6:59 pm

I'm late to the posts. Someone may have already posted this.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
153 PM CST Sat Jan 9 2021

TXZ172-173-194-101100-
/O.UPG.KEWX.WS.A.0001.210110T1800Z-210111T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KEWX.WS.W.0001.210110T1200Z-210111T0600Z/
Burnet-Williamson-Lee-
Including the cities of Burnet, Georgetown, and Giddings
153 PM CST Sat Jan 9 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT
CST SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1
to 3 inches.

* WHERE...Burnet, Williamson and Lee Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Sunday to midnight CST Sunday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Difficult travel conditions are possible,
especially on elevated roadways.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for the state can be obtained at
drivetexas.org.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#1579 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sat Jan 09, 2021 7:00 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:RAP shifts south a bit. And carves out a perfect notch to screw DFW.


It has 36F over the heat island :lol:. Skew-T is a snow profile except for immediately at the ground. Snows all around!

The heat island seems way overdone in these models.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#1580 Postby orangeblood » Sat Jan 09, 2021 7:28 pm

The DFW snowfall record tomorrow is 3.0 inches set 115 years ago...could break it if the convective bands line up just right
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