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southerngale wrote:David, I'm not EVEN gonna fall for those maps this year.
I had a low of 24° yesterday.That's cold, especially for early December!
. Increasing chances for more needed rainfall over the next several days!
Current issue remains the very dense sea fog bank that has formed over the upper TX coastal waters. Warm moist air flowing over the chilled near shore waters has produced an extensive bank of sea fog along much of the LA coast into SE TX. SW edge of this fog is along a line from roughly Galveston to South Houston to near Tomball and eastward with visibilities running .25 of a mile or less along the coast and in the bay. Low level winds are expected to turn more SE to S today and this may help reduce the fetch of chilling time and saturation of the moist marine air over the colder waters and help break up the fog bank. Not overly convinced this will happen, and even if the extensive bank breaks up, expect smaller pockets of very dense fog to continue into Thursday.
Next front and storm system will move into the area late tonight-Friday morning as this highly active weather pattern continues. Very slow moving frontal boundary will arrive into our northern counties by sunrise on Thursday and very slowly cross the area during the day…taking all day if not into the evening to move to the coast. Moisture will pool along and behind the front and expect widespread showers and some thunderstorms spreading from north to south across the region on Thursday. Greatest rain chances may actually come in the colder air north of the front and ahead of the 850mb front where best lift will be found and think Thursday night into Friday morning will feature the highest chances as the next short wave in the SW US moves into the plains adding additional dynamics across the area. A few strong storms will be possible, but the severe threat looks low at this time. Rainfall amounts of .5 to 1.5 inches will be common over the region.
Active SW flow aloft will continue post front and upglide pattern of warm moist air atop the dense cold surface air will commence by later Friday. Isentropic lifting may be enough to continue to generate light rain Friday night and Saturday in the cold air. Will hold temperatures in the 50’s all day Saturday as clouds, drizzle and light rain stunt any warming trend. Overall looks to be shaping up for another cold and dreary weekend and rain chances may need to be raised even more toward the 50-60% range per latest GFS MOS guidance.
Models move the front back northward Sunday as a warm front, but they tend to mix warm front too fast northward especially if clouds and light rain is falling north of the boundary. This is in response to yet another upper level trough digging into the SW US. Temperatures on Sunday will be tricky with areas south of the warm front warming into the 70’s and areas north of the boundary holding in the 50’s. This storm system will eject eastward into the plains on Monday and with it a rapidly moving Pacific cold front. Favorable moisture and dynamics appear in place to produce a round of fast moving thunderstorms late Sunday into Monday. Depending on where the warm front ends up Sunday night we could see another…but shorter…period of dense sea fog near the coast late Sunday.
Clearing and colder Monday evening through next Wednesday as the upper level flow turns more zonal (WNW) instead of the moist SW upper flow of late. However the upper pattern continues to look progressive and active on the long range charts with additional storms system possible toward the end of next week around Christmas.
We are getting some rain this evening that is welcome, but once again, not near enough to dent our drought. Supposedly we will get a squall line of sorts later, but based on radar currently I would say it will be meager at best, if it happens. Current progs have SE TX having a cold and wet Christmas. I definitely like the cold, the wet could wait a day or two. Highly active weather pattern will bring our next storm system into the area tonight and Thursday with more widespread soaking rainfall.
Water vapor images this morning shows the next upper level storm digging across northern MX and heading for SW TX. Mid and high level moisture is being tapped from the Pacific on the southern side of this feature and then spreading ENE/NE across much of TX. At the surface high pressure is starting to move eastward and this will combine with lowering pressures over the NW Gulf later today along the old frontal boundary to help return moisture rapidly across the area. Impressive isentropic lift comes to bear over the region after dark tonight as southerly winds overrun the surface cool pool in place. Clouds will rapidly thicken and lower this afternoon with rain starting to break out along the Rio Grande by late afternoon and spreading ENE across all of SC/SE and the coastal bend of TX overnight. Strong sub-tropical jet core aloft of 100-120kts will help promote strong lift in favorable region of the jet especially over the western and northern sections of SE TX. Modest instability will also develop above the surface cool dome with elevated thunderstorms possible especially toward daybreak Thursday as colder mid level temperatures advect into the region with the upper trough.
Will focus the heaviest rainfall along and just north of a line from Columbus to The Woodlands to Livingston where models are in very good agreement that sustained activity will develop. Entire area will see from .5-1.5 inches with the above mentioned corridor possibly seeing 1-2 inches. With grounds somewhat moist from recent rainfall, rains of this magnitude may actually generate some decent run-off into area watersheds resulting in some recovery of poor lake conditions.
Quick moving system should be east of the area by late Thursday with rain ending around noon and skies clearing by late afternoon. Cold front will surge into the area late Thursday/early Friday off the fresh snow pack over the western high plains bring polar air into TX for the holiday weekend. Continued split flow upper air pattern with southern stream SW US troughs ejecting into the southern plains reloads and repeats for this weekend, only with much colder air in place across TX. Clouds will be on the increase by late Friday as the next upper level storm moves into MX and starts to head eastward. Models have trended toward a drier solution for the weekend, but not sure this is in fact what is going to happen. Feel it is best to leave cloudy and cold conditions in place for Saturday with a threat of light rain especially south of I-10. Sunday may end up being cloudy and cold also if the trough hangs back to the west continuing the overrunning pattern. Temperature profiles for the weekend suggest all liquid over SE TX, but profiles are supportive of snow over portions of W/NW/N TX in the Friday-Sunday time frame…and some locations in this region of the state may see light snow and some accumulations over the holiday weekend. At this time where any accumulations will be confined to is difficult to determine, but meager moisture suggest what falls in these parts of the state would likely be on the light side.
. . NWS calling for 1"-3" areawide and the latest NAM seems to think we'll have no problem getting a few inches. We shall see! Merry Christmas everyone and here's to an exciting (and wet) 2012! Wet and cold holiday weekend in store for the region. For this year, unlike in 2004, SE TX will see no snow this Christmas, but it will feel very much like winter!
Upper level storm system dropping southward toward N MX this afternoon with downstream coastal trough starting to develop over the lower TX coast. While at the surface, cold air is filtering southward across the state creating a favorable pattern for a white Christmas over W TX and widespread rains over the rest of the state.
Clouds will thicken and lower tonight into early Saturday with best forcing from the developing coastal low coming to bear across the region Saturday PM/evening into Sunday morning. Expect widespread light rain and drizzle to develop late Saturday morning and become more frequent and heavy by Saturday evening. Heavy rainfall will be possible along with a few elevated thunderstorms especially south of US 59. Strong sub-tropical jet axis over the coastal region will support some decent rainfall amounts. Slower system is favored for the ejection of the upper trough out of MX and this will keep at least some rain chances going into Sunday AM until about the noonish hour. After that rains should be ending from SW to NE, but clouds will linger in Monday or until the upper storm shears across TX. Rainfall amounts look to average .5-1.0 inch through the weekend with isolated totals of 1-2 inches possible especially near the coast.
Due to the clouds and rainfall and gusty NE winds on the north side of the NW Gulf surface low feature, temperatures will be cold all day Saturday with highs likely in the 40’s making for a raw day. Sunday will feature lows in the upper 30’s and highs near 50. Temperatures will slowly warm into next week as a more zonal and less amplified upper air pattern develops over North America and a more typical La Nina result begins to surface.
vbhoutex wrote:We're getting some of our Christmas early. It has started raining/drizzling here in Houston. Thank you for the early Christmas present Santa.
The system(s) causing this are coming in slower than expected and staying longer than expected, so it does look like a wet and cold weekend. Too bad we don't a have a slam of cold air coming in.
edit(4:30pm)-and raining and raining.... and 43F
edit(9:30pm)-and raining and raining.... and 42F
ROCK wrote:vbhoutex wrote:We're getting some of our Christmas early. It has started raining/drizzling here in Houston. Thank you for the early Christmas present Santa.
The system(s) causing this are coming in slower than expected and staying longer than expected, so it does look like a wet and cold weekend. Too bad we don't a have a slam of cold air coming in.
edit(4:30pm)-and raining and raining.... and 43F
edit(9:30pm)-and raining and raining.... and 42F
yeah I got 2in the other day but its started again last night and today. Radar is lighting up as well. Wet and cold aint too bad...as long as its not windy....
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