Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Ntxw]

At the very least via the ensembles they have been expanding the cold air mass. Probably a product of coming closer into range.

[Ntxw]

EPS is slower with it but trending colder in Canada.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

EPS is slower with it but trending colder in Canada.

https://i.imgur.com/K9uumXT.gif

Similar but I think we know the cold *should* move faster than that

[orangeblood]

EPS is slower with it but trending colder in Canada.

https://i.imgur.com/K9uumXT.gif

Man, that is a textbook look….this just has the feel of a low teens maybe single digits type event

[rwfromkansas]

Yeah that looks good still.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Canadian holding steady. Teens/low 20s and highs in the 20s/low 30s around Christmas and leading up starting on the 23rd.

[orangeblood]

If any of y’all are on Twitter, Philippe Papin (@pppapin) has a great thread about how things are shaping up in the Arctic regions. He explains smaller scale features having large impacts further downstream.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1603215128891359232?s=46&t=Eh0zH2Vh9pOPNSMomFEi9Q

Thanks for sharing….he is spot on, the North Pacific this time of year is ridiculously chaotic. So many different interactions making the downstream forecast accuracy highly variable until you get within a certain window

[Ntxw]

Regardless of surface maps, the 1064mb along the US/Canadian border (Montana part) would tie the all time HP record on 0z GFS.

[Brent]

Just saw a low of 5 on TV and he mentioned that might be too warm

Early guess at Christmas was sunny and maybe a run for 30 "if we're lucky".

Also he didn't rule out some light snow in the couple days before

[orangeblood]

Regardless of surface maps, the 1064mb along the US/Canadian border (Montana part) would tie the all time HP record on 0z GFS.

Sliding right down the spine of the Rockies, not many jet configurations can influence it much one it starts that treck south

[Ntxw]

Regardless of surface maps, the 1064mb along the US/Canadian border (Montana part) would tie the all time HP record on 0z GFS.

Sliding right down the spine of the Rockies, not many jet configurations can influence it much one it starts that treck south

I have no doubt about the cold. Even a glancing blow will be plenty cold. Want to see a disturbance sneak in. Will not need much qpf to generate decent snow cover.

[harp]

Bone dry again…

[Ntxw]

Bone dry again…

Yeah but for TX both GFS and CMC verbatim has a disturbance enough behind it Christmas weekend. The temps would likely, if it happens, makes it the 2nd coldest Christmas Eve/Christmas day at DFW at this range.

[txtwister78]

Bastardi referencing the "Ozarks effect" with the Canadian. This is what we typically see with big arctic fronts down into TX where it typically takes longer for the cold air to filter into SE TX/Houston region as a result of this (downslope). Different run though from the 12z (much colder 0z)

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1603253664948404225

[cheezyWXguy]

Bone dry again…

Yeah but for TX both GFS and CMC verbatim has a disturbance enough behind it Christmas weekend. The temps would likely, if it happens, makes it the 2nd coldest Christmas Eve/Christmas day at DFW at this range.

Yeah the 0z drops an inch or so over most of north Texas on Christmas Eve. I’d call that an improvement.

[Brent]

The CMC verbatim would probably be the coldest day on record here Christmas Eve even 2021 had a high of 5. Something to watch also the icon starts getting really cold here following the Monday wave rather than waiting til midweek

[Ralph's Weather]

I would keep an eye on even this weekend. If that shortwave Friday night slows down and digs a bit more so that it links up with the STJ Sat morning there could be a surprise winter mix across Central and East Texas north of I-10.

[Ntxw]

Snow or no snow that's a blue norther on 0z Euro, temp drops hard behind front. With GFS on the record high pressure. NTX goes from 50s overnight to freezing by morning and falls to teens during peak day. Single digits in Oklahoma and Panhandle.

[Ralph's Weather]

Models all still look too fast for a lot of fun for now but I would keep eyes on Friday night for a small event, Monday could be something if temps trend down a few degrees and I still would watch the big late week front to see if it finds moisture.
Around here this morning it is in the upper to 20s to mid 30s.

[Iceresistance]

Even if we get no snow in December, there is always January/February