Texas Winter 2013-2014

[TheProfessor]

Here are some pictures I took.

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/844/r78u.jpg/

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/689/h39y.jpg/

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/11/vmyw.jpg/

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/34/g0vs.jpg/

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/89/b6ie.jpg/

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/89/j3xe.jpg/

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/17/b509.jpg/

[Portastorm]

Hey everyone, thanks for the photos! There's some great stuff there and it is so cool to see what's going on in your backyards (or front yards as it were!).

PWC's quick perusal of the 12z models suggests very minimal precip chances in the state until Sunday. Looks like overrunning moisture ramps up some on Sunday into Monday. Of course surface temps will be critical. As I mentioned earlier there is also a concern that the models don't capture all of the shortwaves rounding the base of the full latitude trough in which we are literally sitting. Those can create "surprise" precip and it's something to watch for this weekend.

[Texas Snowman]

[img][/img]

Don't know why that loaded up that way. But that's my driveway in northern Grayson County.

[wxman57]

12z GFS doesn't see any significant precip across Texas this weekend. Just cold and dry. Getting close to 70 deg by the end of the period in Houston.

[downsouthman1]

Here are some pictures I took.

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/844/r78u.jpg/

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/689/h39y.jpg/

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/11/vmyw.jpg/

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/34/g0vs.jpg/

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/89/b6ie.jpg/

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/89/j3xe.jpg/

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/17/b509.jpg/

You're right; you did get decent snow.

[Portastorm]

The 12z NAM, at least the radar reflectivity part of the run, showed precip for southern/south central Texas on Sunday. Looks like the NAM is wetter than GFS per 12z runs.

[wxman57]

NAM doesn't see any significant precip in the Dallas area Saturday or Sunday

[katheria]

i like winter, but not this.


wxman57, think ill join ya and wish for 80 degree temps

[Snowman67]

Hey everyone, thanks for the photos! There's some great stuff there and it is so cool to see what's going on in your backyards (or front yards as it were!).

PWC's quick perusal of the 12z models suggests very minimal precip chances in the state until Sunday. Looks like overrunning moisture ramps up some on Sunday into Monday. Of course surface temps will be critical. As I mentioned earlier there is also a concern that the models don't capture all of the shortwaves rounding the base of the full latitude trough in which we are literally sitting. Those can create "surprise" precip and it's something to watch for this weekend.

The "surprise" you refer to reminded me of a time several years ago on a trip to visit family in Waco. A couple of days prior there was snow in the official forecast there. I got my kids excited telling them that there would be snow. Well the snow didn't come, and we waited until the NWS finally removed all chances of any precipitation. We were about half way back to Tomball when my mom called and told me it started snowing. They ended up with 3 inches that eveining. I didn't have the heart to tell the kids. All of this to say that you are right that the models sometimes do not correctly forecast snow events, sometimes even within hours of it. I think those in N. Texas know exaclty what I'm talking about, when just a few years ago, the forecast was for minor accumulations and then they ended up with a foot in some places.

[wxman57]

Here's the 12Z NAM for Austin. 0.01" of precip Saturday evening:



Long period of drizzle in Houston this weekend. Temps well above freezing:

[Portastorm]

Interesting. It doesn't appear to match up very well with the radar reflectivity map on the NAM, but I trust the meteogram. We shall see.

[wxman57]

Interesting. It doesn't appear to match up very well with the radar reflectivity map on the NAM, but I trust the meteogram. We shall see.

Seems to match up with the model loop below. Just a light green shading across SE TX indicating very light rain/drizzle. Nothing heavy.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Imageanis.php

48hr NAM precip has generally < 0.10 inch across TX. A little over a tenth in SE TX this weekend:

[Portastorm]

I like where EWX is going with this and it matches the concern that I have as well.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1116 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

.UPDATE...
DISTURBANCES HAVE NOW SWEPT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH PRECIPITATION
NOW ENDING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE
WILL TAKE OUT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT
SECTIONS INCLUDING THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO METRO AREAS. WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVER EXTREME EASTERN
COUNTIES WITH SOME MINOR OVERRUNNING POSSIBLE.

HAVE CONCERNS REGARDING SOME OVERRUNNING FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE MIXED
WITH SOME SLEET BEGINNING TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NOON.
A NEW SURGE OF COLDER AIR WITH SWEEP SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH SOME ENHANCED OVERRUNNING GULF MOISTURE OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS. A NEW WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS...STAY TUNED.

[ColdFusion]

View out the front door right now.
Location, DFW - Dallas Tollway @ Hwy 121. If you step in it, you dont sink, its pretty darn solid.
I tried the measure the accumulation on the patio table, but couldnt stick a ruler thru it, was like an ice cube.

[Tammie]

Is there a link on how to post a photo?

[katheria]

Is there a link on how to post a photo?

when you reply look at the top bar
you will see Img
click it [img][/img will show
in the middle between ][ put ur link to where the photo is

[downsouthman1]

View out the front door right now.
Location, DFW - Dallas Tollway @ Hwy 121. If you step in it, you dont sink, its pretty darn solid.
I tried the measure the accumulation on the patio table, but couldnt stick a ruler thru it, was like an ice cube.

http://img600.imageshack.us/img600/4678/r39j.jpg

Amazing that it looks like snow but is ice.

[Texas Snowman]

Just saw some pics of the freezing rain near Paris. Terrible stuff over there...

[downsouthman1]

So is the Saturday PM/Sunday AM disturbance that little impulse over SoCal right now?

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash

[gboudx]

Some of you got much more sleet than we did. We're mostly ice.