Texas Winter 2022-2023

[TropicalTundra]

12k NAM with cold rain and temps in the 30's Sat. morning like what the GFS had yesterday. If upper levels temps are cool enough maybe some light flurries/ something frozen?

[wxman57]

Less cold with the 12Z GFS, but that doesn't mean much this far out. Models always lose the cold air in the 7-10 day time frame. That doesn't mean it's 100% going to get very cold, though. Maybe the models are just predicting a more realistic result? Watch the source region and for any mechanism to drive the cold air south.

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1602840681260752897

[wxman57]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1602840681260752897?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

That Siberian air can stay right where it is. That's one reason I don't live there.

[CaptinCrunch]

Yeah it's been brutal for SA all year. Pretty much all of the heavy rain events have missed the city. Hoping for better luck in 2023.

It sure has been a brutal year for SA with the continued drought, but I will say in years past when we eventually come out of these, it's typically a famine to "feast" type of an event (flooding event) that either puts a serious dent in the drought or completely erases it. But coming off a three year La Nina cycle has no doubt taken its toll and so I like our odds in 2023 just based on that aspect alone.

Agreed. Most of the long-range models are indicating that we will transition into an El Nino event by late next year. That should lead to a wetter year.

The last ENSO report has equal chances for La Nina or ENSO neutral conditions Jan-Mar. 71% chance of ENSO neutral Feb-April.

However you chop it up we have been in a El Nino/ENSO Neutral type pattern since late October, and La Nina is continuing to weaken.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Ensembles still look great to me. 20 plus below normal around Christmas and 15 below normal flanking it.

Yall can go chase the Op Monkey bar runs.

[Iceresistance]

The Euro has 1070+ mb Arctic HP again

[gpsnowman]

It got down to 2 below at DFW during the 2021 outbreak. Do we really need that to enjoy winter? It was cool to experience the power of nature and if it happens again so be it. As far as the upcoming pattern hell yes I want cold and snow. Just give me some days in the 20s with snow flying around and I will be as happy as termites in a sawmill.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Ensembles still look great to me. 20 plus below normal around Christmas and 15 below normal flanking it.

Yall can go chase the Op Monkey bar runs.

you have a link to individual members?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Ensembles still look great to me. 20 plus below normal around Christmas and 15 below normal flanking it.

Yall can go chase the Op Monkey bar runs.

you have a link to individual members?

I can grab them off weatherbell, but I won't be able to do that for another couple hours until I get back to my laptop. Posting on my phone.

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro is back to being pretty cold after its 0z outlier run. Mid 20s for Houston next Friday morning. Unfortunately it is dry like the rest of the guidance.

[Cpv17]

12z Euro is back to being pretty cold after its 0z outlier run. Mid 20s for Houston next Friday morning. Unfortunately it is dry like the rest of the guidance.

It probably has a blizzard for the east coast.

[Iceresistance]

12z Euro is back to being pretty cold after its 0z outlier run. Mid 20s for Houston next Friday morning. Unfortunately it is dry like the rest of the guidance.

It probably has a blizzard for the east coast.

Yes, it does show a big storm on the East Coast.

[Cpv17]

12z Euro is back to being pretty cold after its 0z outlier run. Mid 20s for Houston next Friday morning. Unfortunately it is dry like the rest of the guidance.

It probably has a blizzard for the east coast.

Yes, it does show a big storm on the East Coast.

I’m sure it does.

[wxman57]

12z Euro is back to being pretty cold after its 0z outlier run. Mid 20s for Houston next Friday morning. Unfortunately it is dry like the rest of the guidance.

I see 29F across Houston at 12Z the 24th. Mid-20s in the DFW area. Light freeze. Meaningless this far out, but believable. If I had to make a forecast for the 24th-26th for a client here in Houston, I'd say that there is a good chance of lows in the 28F-32F range. There is a possibility of colder temps or warmer temps.

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro is back to being pretty cold after its 0z outlier run. Mid 20s for Houston next Friday morning. Unfortunately it is dry like the rest of the guidance.

I see 29 across Houston at 12Z the 24th. Mid-20s in the DFW area. Light freeze. Meaningless this far out, but believable.

I see 26 at IAH at 12z on the 24th. Euro ensembles are upper 20s, so in pretty good agreement with the operational run at 12z.

[Cpv17]

12z Euro is back to being pretty cold after its 0z outlier run. Mid 20s for Houston next Friday morning. Unfortunately it is dry like the rest of the guidance.

I see 29 across Houston at 12Z the 24th. Mid-20s in the DFW area. Light freeze. Meaningless this far out, but believable.

I see 26 at IAH at 12z on the 24th. Euro ensembles are upper 20s, so in pretty good agreement with the operational run at 12z.

I wouldn’t even call that an Artic front by our standards. That’s more like a Canadian front that we usually get 3-4 times every winter.

[Stormcenter]

Lots of time before we know anything for sure.
I still have my snow blower gassed up just in case.

[wxman57]

12z Euro is back to being pretty cold after its 0z outlier run. Mid 20s for Houston next Friday morning. Unfortunately it is dry like the rest of the guidance.

I see 29 across Houston at 12Z the 24th. Mid-20s in the DFW area. Light freeze. Meaningless this far out, but believable.

I see 26 at IAH at 12z on the 24th. Euro ensembles are upper 20s, so in pretty good agreement with the operational run at 12z.

I can't zoom in to that level on Pivotal Weather. Is that where you see it?

[wxman57]

I see 29 across Houston at 12Z the 24th. Mid-20s in the DFW area. Light freeze. Meaningless this far out, but believable.

I see 26 at IAH at 12z on the 24th. Euro ensembles are upper 20s, so in pretty good agreement with the operational run at 12z.

I wouldn’t even call that an Artic front by our standards. That’s more like a Canadian front that we usually get 3-4 times every winter.

Current models are likely not correct. Wait until next Tue or Wed for a better idea what will happen. There may be a lot of model variance up until 12-24 hours before the front arrives. I still think that the upper-level flow doesn't look "right" for delivering any extreme cold to Texas around Christmas. Too much flow off the Pacific.