Texas Winter 2024-2025

[gpsnowman]

Back from Los Angeles, and now living in Austin! Here’s to hoping we get a little taste of winter weather next month.

Feels good to have something to discuss again.

Welcome back to Texas!! Now you can experience winter again.

[Ntxw]

Back from Los Angeles, and now living in Austin! Here’s to hoping we get a little taste of winter weather next month.

Feels good to have something to discuss again.

Welcome back to Texas!! Now you can experience winter again.

And Summer . Welcome back!

[wxman22]

The 18Z GFS shifted significantly southwest with the shortwave next weekend more in line with the CMC. If the trends continue we may be talking about frozen precip for some as early as this weekend.

[Ntxw]

18z GFS looking a bit more progressive than 12z for the 7th's system. Maybe correcting from the retreating baja low?

[Ntxw]

The 18Z GFS shifted significantly southwest with the shortwave next weekend more in line with the CMC. If the trends continue we may be talking about frozen precip for some as early as this weekend.

Base of that earlier system is W-Texas. 09 blizzard Path-ish. We're talking too crazy to think Brent could hit a homerun with that one.

[Ntxw]

Texas snow storm cometh 18z GFS.

Edit: It's a 1985 redux on the the run for San Antonio.

[Stratton23]

GFS completely caved to the euro

[Ntxw]

CFSv2, cold dominates most of the country east of the Rockies week 2. Loosens 3 but 4 (near end of January) cold is reloading in Canada with PNA shifting. There are no above normal weeks, Euro weeklies are very similar. I think there is an outside chance DFW could have a sub 40F month, something we haven't seen since December 2000.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw so we could potentially be seeing this cold pattern be around for a month?

[Ntxw]

Ntxw so we could potentially be seeing this cold pattern be around for a month?

There is no warm pattern indicated in the long range to suggest it. I've been repeating that this coming cold wave is not the best cold pattern for us, but good for snow. The true colder pattern is later in the month. When you have 2 cold periods in a span of a month with this favorable MJO traverse, the analogs say it's a 4-5 week cold span. 1985 is the best analog for 500mb progression.

[Brent]

Man Sunday is so close to something much bigger here

It would be funny if our first threat is an actual storm

And yeah I think the pattern is gonna reload later in the month even if it moderates

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Man Sunday is so close to something much bigger here

It would be funny if our first threat is an actual storm

And yeah I think the pattern is gonna reload later in the month even if it moderates

Brent, we gonna need a big shift south I'm afraid with weekend system if we are to see winter precipitation

[Brent]

Man Sunday is so close to something much bigger here

It would be funny if our first threat is an actual storm

And yeah I think the pattern is gonna reload later in the month even if it moderates

Brent, we gonna need a big shift south I'm afraid with weekend system if we are to see winter precipitation

Well if we follow the trend of the models being too slow with the Arctic air I dunno

And apparently the last couple storms have shifted south

[Ntxw]

Man Sunday is so close to something much bigger here

It would be funny if our first threat is an actual storm

And yeah I think the pattern is gonna reload later in the month even if it moderates

Brent, we gonna need a big shift south I'm afraid with weekend system if we are to see winter precipitation

There's been some notable shifts already and the GFS isn't even as cold as the ICON. We're now moving towards <144 hours which is where the wheelbarrow of forecasting starts coming into play.

[Harp.1]

Man Sunday is so close to something much bigger here

It would be funny if our first threat is an actual storm

And yeah I think the pattern is gonna reload later in the month even if it moderates

Brent, we gonna need a big shift south I'm afraid with weekend system if we are to see winter precipitation

There's been some notable shifts already and the GFS isn't even as cold as the ICON. We're now moving towards <144 hours which is where the wheelbarrow of forecasting starts coming into play.

https://i.imgur.com/MkA737e.gif

Dig, baby, dig!!!

[snownado]

Today's high at DFW was 82*F officially, several degrees above the forecasted high.

[Ntxw]

Today's high at DFW was 82*F officially, several degrees above the forecasted high.

Cold front has come through DFW though, thank goodness. 94F at McAllen.

[wxman22]

The 18Z Euro also shifted significantly southwest with the weekends system.

[Ntxw]

It's not just the southward shift but also more negative tilt. If this trends anymore (plenty of time) it would be a blockbuster for Oklahoma.

[Brent]

The GFS clown map has 20 inches near Little Rock in 24 hours

Now it includes sleet and ice but still