Texas Winter 2022-2023

[snowballzzz]

Y'all haven't been getting all this rain like we have in Austin? Seems like it's rained every day since November

Very little improvement for my local area in the past few months. Always north, south, or east of us.
https://www.tceq.texas.gov/downloads/response/images/drought-map.jpg

I lived in Canyon Lake for the freeze of 2021. I'll never forget that storm and the impact it had on that area! Sad to see Canyon Lake so low this year..

[rwfromkansas]

IMO at this point, I don't believe there is really debate about the Source Region getting cold (NW Canada). All models have that showing up in less than 3 days. It's the upper level pattern evolution and the subsequent downstream implications that is up for debate. The trends overnight were definitely in the very cold (not extreme) and drier camp but still too early to call, we're still in the "model wobble" period for late next week.

I would say that it is quite uncertain just how cold the air up there may get. Will it be -15F to -25F or -35F to -45F? Big difference down here.

Even in 3 to 5 days those -30 to -40 temps are not forecast but(modeled) in the source region, not even close, so this will be interesting to watch how it unfolds.

I'm sorry, but can you explain what you mean here?

I will say I don't like that the Euro ensembles are way east with the trough. But, it still would at least be cold enough to feel like Christmas.

[South Texas Storms]

Y'all haven't been getting all this rain like we have in Austin? Seems like it's rained every day since November

Very little improvement for my local area in the past few months. Always north, south, or east of us.
https://www.tceq.texas.gov/downloads/response/images/drought-map.jpg

UGH. That IS ugly. I'm so sorry

Yeah it's been brutal for SA all year. Pretty much all of the heavy rain events have missed the city. Hoping for better luck in 2023.

[JDawg512]

Had some rain and occasional thunder earlier this morning. My oldest Beagle's hearing has changed to to point where she freaks out every time it thunders so ended up waking to keep her company until it passed.

[orangeblood]

IMO at this point, I don't believe there is really debate about the Source Region getting cold (NW Canada). All models have that showing up in less than 3 days. It's the upper level pattern evolution and the subsequent downstream implications that is up for debate. The trends overnight were definitely in the very cold (not extreme) and drier camp but still too early to call, we're still in the "model wobble" period for late next week.

I would say that it is quite uncertain just how cold the air up there may get. Will it be -15F to -25F or -35F to -45F? Big difference down here.

Even in 3 to 5 days those -30 to -40 temps are not forecast but(modeled) in the source region, not even close, so this will be interesting to watch how it unfolds.

?? Most every model is forecasting -30 to -40 C temps across NW Canada by this weekend

Here is the Euro ENS Mean

[WinterMax]

I would say that it is quite uncertain just how cold the air up there may get. Will it be -15F to -25F or -35F to -45F? Big difference down here.

Even in 3 to 5 days those -30 to -40 temps are not forecast but(modeled) in the source region, not even close, so this will be interesting to watch how it unfolds.

I'm sorry, but can you explain what you mean here?

I will say I don't like that the Euro ensembles are way east with the trough. But, it still would at least be cold enough to feel like Christmas.

I don’t know anything about weather, I just pay attention to people like wxman57 and he said monitor the source region, others said that is northwest Canada. So I looked up the cities in that region, then looked at 3-5 day forecasts for those cities.

No brutally cold air forecasted there in the next few days.

[txtwister78]

Very little improvement for my local area in the past few months. Always north, south, or east of us.
https://www.tceq.texas.gov/downloads/response/images/drought-map.jpg

UGH. That IS ugly. I'm so sorry

Yeah it's been brutal for SA all year. Pretty much all of the heavy rain events have missed the city. Hoping for better luck in 2023.

It sure has been a brutal year for SA with the continued drought, but I will say in years past when we eventually come out of these, it's typically a famine to "feast" type of an event (flooding event) that either puts a serious dent in the drought or completely erases it. But coming off a three year La Nina cycle has no doubt taken its toll and so I like our odds in 2023 just based on that aspect alone.

[wxman57]

?? Most every model is forecasting -30 to -40 C temps across NW Canada by this weekend

Here is the Euro ENS Mean
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/alaska/t2m_c/1670997600/1671386400-kqE9FO0kE6Q.png

Models are forecasting the cold. Let's see if the models are correct. Then, let's see if a mechanism to drive it south develops. Temps of -30F to -40F are not unusual up there, but we don't have a big freeze every time. Step 1 - become cold in source region.

[Texas Snow]

Even in 3 to 5 days those -30 to -40 temps are not forecast but(modeled) in the source region, not even close, so this will be interesting to watch how it unfolds.

I'm sorry, but can you explain what you mean here?

I will say I don't like that the Euro ensembles are way east with the trough. But, it still would at least be cold enough to feel like Christmas.

I don’t know anything about weather, I just pay attention to people like wxman57 and he said monitor the source region, others said that is northwest Canada. So I looked up the cities in that region, then looked at 3-5 day forecasts for those cities.

No brutally cold air forecasted there in the next few days.

I just picked a random city in Yukon on the map and on weather.com and was -38 for Sunday. Dawson City. First try, only try so don’t know about others.

[South Texas Storms]

UGH. That IS ugly. I'm so sorry

Yeah it's been brutal for SA all year. Pretty much all of the heavy rain events have missed the city. Hoping for better luck in 2023.

It sure has been a brutal year for SA with the continued drought, but I will say in years past when we eventually come out of these, it's typically a famine to "feast" type of an event (flooding event) that either puts a serious dent in the drought or completely erases it. But coming off a three year La Nina cycle has no doubt taken its toll and so I like our odds in 2023 just based on that aspect alone.

Agreed. Most of the long-range models are indicating that we will transition into an El Nino event by late next year. That should lead to a wetter year.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Might sound weird what im going to say, but there are parts of the 0z Euro which is how i think things will eventually play out.

I think the core of the cold will park itself near ND/Minn and hang out there due to blocking north and to the east. I dont see it going on a tour to the Four corners region or taking a tour through the nations heart land.

The cold is there. Siberia reporting temps 70 below zero, just waiting for it to be shoved around somewhere. Timing is going to be a huge issue and it appears to keep getting pushed back. May not be till Christmas Eve/Christmas day till SE TX folk get the front.

Also, EVERY single storm we watch pulls back at some point within 7 days of the event. Never not happened.

[Ntxw]

Lol GFS went from bad to good to bad to good again. It's had some wonky stuff in Alaska. Don't doubt the cold but the 12z is trough/ridge orientation different than the past two runs. Bigger ridge in Alaska. About ready to ignore it.

[txtwister78]

Definitely not throwing in the towel with this pattern. The Op's are still struggling (see Euro 0z run compared to its 12z run from yesterday) in their handling of the arctic air/blocking. While I don't like to reference previous patterns (because I think in most cases every event is different in some way even if the setup may look similar prior), but models have always struggled/performed poorly as it relates to their handling of arctic air here in Texas until the event is almost upon us (see 2021 as one example among several). That's just a given.

The good news as I mentioned several days ago is that for once Christmas will "feel" like Christmas around Texas for a change. I personally don't need the analog years to verify in order to feel good about the pattern that lies ahead. Now if you give me the cold, I'm more of a let's not waste it with dry weather kind of person. Lol. Hopefully we can get "something" out of it, but we're still several days out from that ultimately being determined in my opinion.

[South Texas Storms]

12z Canadian looks reasonable. A few mornings of a hard freeze for much of the state, with the northern half of the state remaining below freezing for a few days. Cold and dry Christmas.

[Iceresistance]

Lol GFS went from bad to good to bad to good again. It's had some wonky stuff in Alaska. Don't doubt the cold but the 12z is trough/ridge orientation different than the past two runs. Bigger ridge in Alaska. About ready to ignore it.

At least the GFS is weakening the +PNA ridge compared to the past 3 runs.

[snowballzzz]

12Z GFS still showing that huge ridge out west and shunting the bulk of the cold air off to the east.

[Iceresistance]

What is with the GFS and the +PNA? It almost seems like that Heat Miser intentionally did this to force the cold to the east and away from us!

[TheProfessor]

12z GEFS is coming in a little further west. One of the issues it's having is the interaction with the northern stream and the cutoff low in the southwest. It's likely moving that cutoff low too quickly, which allows for ridging to replace it. More likely that cutoff low lingers and provides a weakness for that trough in western Canada to dive down further west. The fast-moving cold air at the surface will also dig the system further south.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

12z GEFS is coming in a little further west. One of the issues it's having is the interaction with the northern stream and the cutoff low in the southwest. It's likely moving that cutoff low too quickly, which allows for ridging to replace it. More likely that cutoff low lingers and provides a weakness for that trough in western Canada to dive down further west. The fast-moving cold air at the surface will also dig the system further south.

My thoughts and process hasn’t changed. Follow the ensembles and enjoy the OP at this range doing its kooky dances back and forth.

[Iceresistance]

12z GEFS is coming in a little further west. One of the issues it's having is the interaction with the northern stream and the cutoff low in the southwest. It's likely moving that cutoff low too quickly, which allows for ridging to replace it. More likely that cutoff low lingers and provides a weakness for that trough in western Canada to dive down further west. The fast-moving cold air at the surface will also dig the system further south.

My thoughts and process hasn’t changed. Follow the ensembles and enjoy the OP at this range doing its kooky dances back and forth.