Texas Winter 2018-2019

[gpsnowman]

Good morning all. I wanted to wish all Storm2k'ers a Merry Christmas. Perhaps Santa will bring lots of cold and snow in 2019 to make our Christmas dreams come true. A nice cold front is on tap for later this week with rain likely. Winter weather chances remain to be seen. Merry Christmas!!!

[northjaxpro]

I also want to take this time to all in the Storm2K family to say Merry Christmas to you and to your loved ones!!

[Portastorm]

I know most of us are consumed with wintry weather hopes but in my area of Texas, a very concerning severe weather episode appears to be on tap for Wednesday afternoon/evening. Per NWSFO Austin/San Antonio, if the squall line coming through is surface-based, our threat will be tornadoes and straight line wind damage. If the storms are elevated, very large hail. Yikes!

[Ralph's Weather]

Many Euro members still offer hope for some light snow next weekend.

[bubba hotep]

00z Euro control run hammers N & NE Texas with a wide swath of 10" of snow from DFW to the ArkLaTx.

[bubba hotep]

[wxman57]

You can all forget the snow for this year. Temps will likely get colder around the 2nd-3rd of January. Any chance of snow will be beyond then. I still think we're in a pattern that will be conducive for snow in Jan/Feb when colder air moves south.

Until then, Merry Warm Christmas and Happy New Year from the Heat Miser!

[Tammie]

00z Euro control run hammers N & NE Texas with a wide swath of 10" of snow from DFW to the ArkLaTx.

Is there a map you can post please?

[wxman57]

00z Euro control run hammers N & NE Texas with a wide swath of 10" of snow from DFW to the ArkLaTx.

Is there a map you can post please?

That would be quite odd, as the operational run, which has the same data but run at a higher resolution has nothing remotely close to any snow in NE Texas through January 2nd. I'm not sure where to find the lower-resolution control run maps either.

[bubba hotep]

00z Euro control run hammers N & NE Texas with a wide swath of 10" of snow from DFW to the ArkLaTx.

Is there a map you can post please?

Looks like Jan 4-5th for this system.

[wxman57]

What's the source of that map, bubba hotep? I subscribe to weatherbell & Maue's weathermodels page. If it's for Jan 4-5, then it's beyond the 10-day operational ECMWF run.

[gboudx]

What's the source of that map, bubba hotep? I subscribe to weatherbell & Maue's weathermodels page. If it's for Jan 4-5, then it's beyond the 10-day operational ECMWF run.

Fantasyland.

Merry Christmas everyone! It won't be in the 80's here in SELA this year. Yay.

[Haris]

[bubba hotep]

What's the source of that map, bubba hotep? I subscribe to weatherbell & Maue's weathermodels page. If it's for Jan 4-5, then it's beyond the 10-day operational ECMWF run.

Link to the free version that was posted - https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/te ... 1800z.html

[bubba hotep]

This upcoming event should push DFW safely into 2nd place all-time for yearly rainfall.

[Cpv17]

Most of the models keep on showing the same things with all these low pressures kicking out from the southwest. Instead of them moving across the central or southern part of the state, they keep kicking out strongly northeast going through the panhandle and that’s just not gonna work out very well for wintry weather across most of the state. I want to start seeing some of these troughs/lows dig deeper south.

[wxman57]

What's the source of that map, bubba hotep? I subscribe to weatherbell & Maue's weathermodels page. If it's for Jan 4-5, then it's beyond the 10-day operational ECMWF run.

Link to the free version that was posted - https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/te ... 1800z.html

That website is hard to navigate, and the ads are a killer. However, it looks like the control run (low-res) indicates a wide swath of snow from late morning on the 3rd into the 4th of January. The operational run doesn't go out that far yet, but it does go to 12Z on the 3rd and has a bit high pressure and clear weather over Texas that day.

[Cpv17]

What's the source of that map, bubba hotep? I subscribe to weatherbell & Maue's weathermodels page. If it's for Jan 4-5, then it's beyond the 10-day operational ECMWF run.

Link to the free version that was posted - https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/te ... 1800z.html

That website is hard to navigate, and the ads are a killer. However, it looks like the control run (low-res) indicates a wide swath of snow from late morning on the 3rd into the 4th of January. The operational run doesn't go out that far yet, but it does go to 12Z on the 3rd and has a bit high pressure and clear weather over Texas that day.

I think you would agree that we shouldn’t really believe any forecast that far out in time lol

[gatorcane]

Battle of arctic air and warmth on the 10 day Euro frame:

[TheProfessor]

Skew-ts are definitely impressive south of the metroplex. 3K NAM is suggesting there's going to be convection over DFW throughout the day. Based off the Skew-t on the model these would likely be elevated, however, it would not take very much destabilization for storms to become surface based on the model. Any storm that's surface based will be able to tap in to the low level turning that's evident on skew-ts. Folks in North Texas(even north of I-20) should not sleep on this system, especially if the sun peaks out in the afternoon. The flooding potential is definitely evident, pretty high K-index across the global models.