Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Ntxw]

Looking far out (days 9-10) there definitely appears to be consensus about energy in the southwest when you look at the 500mb patterns in both the GFS and Euro. The GFS breaks off the low off the Baja coastline while the Euro has it associated with the long wave trough over the middle two-thirds of the CONUS. The GFS having the energy pressed down by developing Pacific NW high pressure and then backing it off the West Coast seems implausible. You just don't see that happen very often. Also, I have seen the ICON do a good job in the last year in different seasons. I'm watching that closely along with the ensembles.

To add we've only had this Baja dip low set up within the past 24 hours of runs, so it's fairly a new feature having PVa streamer come down to kick it out. CMC doesn't yet have that and cuts off the baja low deep into Mexico.

I've been saying this for a while. Get trough further west, we be in better shape imo. Also, like you alluded to, mjo is important. I would like to see a small propagation, if possible to extend winter as long as possible.

Any more to the west and the folks to the east will melt .

[rwfromkansas]

I’ve only paid a little attention and I just realized there may be a snowstorm in Kansas when we are driving back south this Sunday after my extended family Christmas up there Saturday. I have school PD Monday so that could be a problem.

[Brent]

To add we've only had this Baja dip low set up within the past 24 hours of runs, so it's fairly a new feature having PVa streamer come down to kick it out. CMC doesn't yet have that and cuts off the baja low deep into Mexico.

I've been saying this for a while. Get trough further west, we be in better shape imo. Also, like you alluded to, mjo is important. I would like to see a small propagation, if possible to extend winter as long as possible.

Any more to the west and the folks to the east will melt .

There's already been a few meltdowns that I've seen in one place

They really thought they had it but it's all been beyond day 10

I mean I'm not convinced yet but the globals have been better for us than them since yesterday and their ensemble mean has dropped somewhat

It's something to watch for sure. Ever since the icon last night it's been in the back of my mind

[Golfisnteasy7575]

To add we've only had this Baja dip low set up within the past 24 hours of runs, so it's fairly a new feature having PVa streamer come down to kick it out. CMC doesn't yet have that and cuts off the baja low deep into Mexico.

I've been saying this for a while. Get trough further west, we be in better shape imo. Also, like you alluded to, mjo is important. I would like to see a small propagation, if possible to extend winter as long as possible.

Any more to the west and the folks to the east will melt .

Every man for himself/herself when it comes to snow and ice around here

[Ntxw]

I've been saying this for a while. Get trough further west, we be in better shape imo. Also, like you alluded to, mjo is important. I would like to see a small propagation, if possible to extend winter as long as possible.

Any more to the west and the folks to the east will melt .

There's already been a few meltdowns that I've seen in one place

They really thought they had it but it's all been beyond day 10

I mean I'm not convinced yet but the globals have been better for us than them since yesterday and their ensemble mean has dropped somewhat

It's something to watch for sure. Ever since the icon last night it's been in the back of my mind

The cold is nice but rather have the snow. There's likely many disturbances riding the mean base of the trough models may whiff on this far out. I'd look for those higher ratio snows up north.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

I've been saying this for a while. Get trough further west, we be in better shape imo. Also, like you alluded to, mjo is important. I would like to see a small propagation, if possible to extend winter as long as possible.

Any more to the west and the folks to the east will melt .

There's already been a few meltdowns that I've seen in one place

They really thought they had it but it's all been beyond day 10

I mean I'm not convinced yet but the globals have been better for us than them since yesterday and their ensemble mean has dropped somewhat

It's something to watch for sure. Ever since the icon last night it's been in the back of my mind

Any shift south, you will get pounded this weekend imo.
This is probably not our system, unfortunately for winter weather

[Ntxw]

Any more to the west and the folks to the east will melt .

There's already been a few meltdowns that I've seen in one place

They really thought they had it but it's all been beyond day 10

I mean I'm not convinced yet but the globals have been better for us than them since yesterday and their ensemble mean has dropped somewhat

It's something to watch for sure. Ever since the icon last night it's been in the back of my mind

Any shift south, you will get pounded this weekend imo.
This is probably not our system, unfortunately for winter weather

Prime time will be late Jan and early February. Roll analogs/MJO forward and you are almost sure to bet a big GOA ridge poking northward and deep cold over west-central Canada. The bitter cold is more likely in that time frame imo as we head to -PNA. It's delayed Nina response.

[Brent]

Any more to the west and the folks to the east will melt .

There's already been a few meltdowns that I've seen in one place

They really thought they had it but it's all been beyond day 10

I mean I'm not convinced yet but the globals have been better for us than them since yesterday and their ensemble mean has dropped somewhat

It's something to watch for sure. Ever since the icon last night it's been in the back of my mind

Any shift south, you will get pounded this weekend imo.
This is probably not our system, unfortunately for winter weather

Yeah I'm very curious to see how Sunday trends here. I mean it's been years since we've had a good trend inside 5 days so this will be a huge test

And I think a big part of what happens Sunday will decide what happens with the second storm the Euro is honking

But yeah I don't really think Sunday is gonna be the big storm we're overdue for probably. Most likely something like January where it's just a dusting to an inch or so

[Ntxw]

But yeah I don't really think Sunday is gonna be the big storm we're overdue for probably. Most likely something like January where it's just a dusting to an inch or so

Nickel and dime your way to 8-9" average!

[Golfisnteasy7575]

But yeah I don't really think Sunday is gonna be the big storm we're overdue for probably. Most likely something like January where it's just a dusting to an inch or so

Nickel and dime your way to 8-9" average!

It's 4-5 here

[Ivanhater]

I'll take the 12z Euro ensemble mean everyday and twice on Sunday please

[Portastorm]

88°at 2 pm at Camp Mabry here in Austin ... I see low 80s in the Metroplex. And here we are, talking about winter weather perhaps a little more than a week away.

Texas weather never fails to entertain.

[Ntxw]

FW taking the bait.

[Brent]

The CPC is still favored east but I swear the colors have gotten darker

[weatherdude1108]

I was a kid in San Antonio during the 1985 storm. It was in the upper 20s to around 30. Not too cold. Perfect! Got out of school for several days.

https://youtu.be/JGJAsDrA7YI?si=nTHlduCTKTFydkh_

https://youtu.be/ID_JLO1ad2s?si=-EZvUgSmWn25GPoU

[Brent]

[nathanc1969]

[bubba hotep]

Time to dust off - https://nwafiles.nwas.org/digest/papers/2009/Vol33No1/Pg37-Ryan.pdf

[iorange55]

Back from Los Angeles, and now living in Austin! Here’s to hoping we get a little taste of winter weather next month.

Feels good to have something to discuss again.

[cheezyWXguy]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GgE-11-WMAAq83o?format=png&name=medium

Man, that’s a map I can get behind. Personally I’d like to see that >10” swath in central tx continue another 100 miles east, but hey, beggars can’t be choosers and 4-6” is better than 99% of storms I’ve seen in dfw. Would be nice to see something like that play out where most of Texas cashes in, but I won’t hold my breath yet.

I am a little concerned that coastal low formation would steal much of the moisture across the northern half of the state and Oklahoma if this setup does play out, but hopefully there will be enough left for higher ratios in the deeper cold air here as others have mentioned. No point in getting worked up on it for now but hard not to speculate for entertainment.