Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Yukon Cornelius]

4 days(!) of very cold rain starting next weekend through New Years Day on the GFS big snowstorm in W TX

I really hope the GFS is too warm like usual

Edit maybe some light snow as it ends late New Years Day for Dallas but that's a lot of rain...

I’ll pass. Nothing worse than rain in winter, especially cold rain.

[Cpv17]

The FV3 is wild

[rwfromkansas]

Gee, cuts northeast just west of DFW. Lol.

[BrokenGlass]

I have a question for you guys to whoever can answer it, but why is the cold air for next weekend on the models having such a hard time advancing into the eastern half of the state? Is there a ridge in the southeast?

That scenario is very common when the trough axis remains to the west of Texas. Upper-level winds are blowing from southwest to northeast across the state, so the cold air doesn't have any "help" in moving eastward, it just drains southward.

Aren’t the mountains of Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma also a factor? Damming the cold air and forcing it westward down the plains?


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[Portastorm]

4 days(!) of very cold rain starting next weekend through New Years Day on the GFS big snowstorm in W TX

I really hope the GFS is too warm like usual

Edit maybe some light snow as it ends late New Years Day for Dallas but that's a lot of rain...

I’ll pass. Nothing worse than rain in winter, especially cold rain.

Perhaps this is true for your part of Texas, Yukon Cornelius, but not down here in south central Texas. After the nightmare of 2011, I don't think we will ever take rain for granted again. While I would love to see some sleet/snow down here during winter, I won't turn my nose up at rain. Warm rain. Cold rain. Whatever. It's all liquid gold.

[Yukon Cornelius]

4 days(!) of very cold rain starting next weekend through New Years Day on the GFS big snowstorm in W TX

I really hope the GFS is too warm like usual

Edit maybe some light snow as it ends late New Years Day for Dallas but that's a lot of rain...

I’ll pass. Nothing worse than rain in winter, especially cold rain.

Perhaps this is true for your part of Texas, Yukon Cornelius, but not down here in south central Texas. After the nightmare of 2011, I don't think we will ever take rain for granted again. While I would love to see some sleet/snow down here during winter, I won't turn my nose up at rain. Warm rain. Cold rain. Whatever. It's all liquid gold.

I hear ya. We were in just as bad of a drought and lost lakes because they went to 0% full. As a livestock producer I rely on rain 100%, but we still have standing water from 1-2 weeks ago. Give me plentiful rain any other time of the year, just not multiple day events in winter.

[Ralph's Weather]

Next weekend def is interesting with a fair number of Euro members showing something. Far from anything certain though.

[Brent]

The FV3 is wild

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018122306/fv3p_asnow_eus_41.png

But of course not in DFW

[wxman57]

12Z GFS isn't looking too bad if you love warmer than normal weather. Only about 1 day of the next two weeks below-normal as far as temps across Texas. Just no mechanism to bring down any really cold air through early January.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

12Z GFS isn't looking too bad if you love warmer than normal weather. Only about 1 day of the next two weeks below-normal as far as temps across Texas. Just no mechanism to bring down any really cold air through early January.

We must be viewing different 12Z GFS runs because once we get to Thursday, I only see one day that’s normal (maybe a bit above) and the rest of the days are below average, especially in SE Texas.

[Cpv17]

12Z GFS isn't looking too bad if you love warmer than normal weather. Only about 1 day of the next two weeks below-normal as far as temps across Texas. Just no mechanism to bring down any really cold air through early January.

We must be viewing different 12Z GFS runs because once we get to Thursday, I only see one day that’s normal (maybe a bit above) and the rest of the days are below average, especially in SE Texas.

Well since he likes the warm weather then he’s probably looking at the old GFS and since you like the cold then you’re probably looking at the new GFS

Btw the 12z Euro is looking very interesting at day 10..need the low to dig deeper down into the Baja though and actually cut across the southern or central part of the state instead of hooking northeast through the Texas panhandle like the low before it does. Looks like it could connect with some artic air heading our way by day 11 or 12.

[bubba hotep]

It's 10 days out but the 12z Euro looks like it is loading up a big Southern Plains winter storm with a system digging into the SW, cold air pushing in from the north and higher heights out across the NE.

[dhweather]

12Z GFS isn't looking too bad if you love warmer than normal weather. Only about 1 day of the next two weeks below-normal as far as temps across Texas. Just no mechanism to bring down any really cold air through early January.

It's looking like another La Nada Winter.

[dhweather]

It's only 384 hours out, book it!

[wxman57]

12Z GFS isn't looking too bad if you love warmer than normal weather. Only about 1 day of the next two weeks below-normal as far as temps across Texas. Just no mechanism to bring down any really cold air through early January.

We must be viewing different 12Z GFS runs because once we get to Thursday, I only see one day that’s normal (maybe a bit above) and the rest of the days are below average, especially in SE Texas.

Well since he likes the warm weather then he’s probably looking at the old GFS and since you like the cold then you’re probably looking at the new GFS

Btw the 12z Euro is looking very interesting at day 10..need the low to dig deeper down into the Baja though and actually cut across the southern or central part of the state instead of hooking northeast through the Texas panhandle like the low before it does. Looks like it could connect with some artic air heading our way by day 11 or 12.

Old, new, they both have SE TX in the "red" through January 1st. But WOW! How different they are at 384 hrs (12Z run). For 12z January 8th, it's either a heat wave across all the U.S. (old GFS) or deep freeze from the Rockies east (new GFS). I like the old/current GFS.

[Cpv17]

We must be viewing different 12Z GFS runs because once we get to Thursday, I only see one day that’s normal (maybe a bit above) and the rest of the days are below average, especially in SE Texas.

Well since he likes the warm weather then he’s probably looking at the old GFS and since you like the cold then you’re probably looking at the new GFS

Btw the 12z Euro is looking very interesting at day 10..need the low to dig deeper down into the Baja though and actually cut across the southern or central part of the state instead of hooking northeast through the Texas panhandle like the low before it does. Looks like it could connect with some artic air heading our way by day 11 or 12.

Old, new, they both have SE TX in the "red" through January 1st.

Yep, but what I’d like to know is what’s causing that? The below normal anomalies just sit to the north and west of SETX for a few days before they finally make their way in. It just seems suspicious to me. I guess the position of the trough like you mentioned earlier.

[starsfan65]

Well since he likes the warm weather then he’s probably looking at the old GFS and since you like the cold then you’re probably looking at the new GFS

Btw the 12z Euro is looking very interesting at day 10..need the low to dig deeper down into the Baja though and actually cut across the southern or central part of the state instead of hooking northeast through the Texas panhandle like the low before it does. Looks like it could connect with some artic air heading our way by day 11 or 12.

Old, new, they both have SE TX in the "red" through January 1st.

Yep, but what I’d like to know is what’s causing that? The below normal anomalies just sit to the north and west of SETX for a few days before they finally make their way in. It just seems suspicious to me. I guess the position of the trough like you mentioned earlier.

What is the difference in temperatures between the Old GFS and the new GFS?

[starsfan65]

Well since he likes the warm weather then he’s probably looking at the old GFS and since you like the cold then you’re probably looking at the new GFS

Btw the 12z Euro is looking very interesting at day 10..need the low to dig deeper down into the Baja though and actually cut across the southern or central part of the state instead of hooking northeast through the Texas panhandle like the low before it does. Looks like it could connect with some artic air heading our way by day 11 or 12.

Old, new, they both have SE TX in the "red" through January 1st.

Yep, but what I’d like to know is what’s causing that? The below normal anomalies just sit to the north and west of SETX for a few days before they finally make their way in. It just seems suspicious to me. I guess the position of the trough like you mentioned earlier.

What is the difference in temperatures between the Old GFS and the new GFS?

[TheAustinMan]

While we are looking for signs of cold wintry weather (or, in wxman57's case, pleasant warm outdoors weather) in the long-run model guidance, a more immediate concern presents itself Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. A trough is expected to move eastward from the Rockies and produce a surface low over the state Wednesday night. As its doing that, we could see an influx of Gulf moisture and CAPE ahead of a developing frontal boundary, and some storms developing Wednesday evening could become severe. Might be a dreary, cloudy, and rainy day in the leadup to more feisty storms in the evening. NAM and GFS so far show a stout squall developing Wednesday night and Thursday morning sweeping east across the state.

Tuesday a mid-level low will dig down into the southwestern states and
turn the flow over Texas to the southwest. This feature will move toward
the east and into Texas by Wednesday. The trough axis will
swing across our CWA with a negative tilt Wednesday night. This will
bring a complex frontal boundary through the area during this time.
Tuesday night the boundary will move northward as a warm front and
continue through our CWA Wednesday. Then Wednesday night the cold
front portion of the boundary will move through from west to east.
Models show the best timing for precipitation to be Tuesday night
through Wednesday night. There will be a chance for thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Model soundings are showing good
instability and vertical wind shear and there could be some strong to
severe storms Wednesday afternoon and evening.

NWS Dallas/Fort Worth had a lot more to say about the system... a lot of good discussion here so I've reproduced much of it below:

This upper level system will be one to watch for a potential severe weather event across North and Central Texas late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Model guidance is in excellent agreement that there will be strong and organized wind shear ahead of the system, strong dynamic forcing for ascent, and widespread convection Wednesday afternoon and night as the Pacific cold front sweeps through the area. PoPs will be high and QPF of 1 to 2 inches is currently forecast across the entire forecast area.

The question still remains whether surface instability will be available for surface based storms - which would increase the risk for severe weather and tornadoes. While the December 26th 2015 tornado event is fresh on many people`s mind, there are a few notable differences with this setup. The first and most important being that the December 26th event was characterized by extremely anomalous surface based instability with dewpoints in the 70s and an afternoon of sunshine that pushed temperatures to near 80 degrees. There are currently no indications in any of the model guidance that the surface airmass will look anything like those values with the models all clustering both temperatures and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s.

If there is an analog to this setup that we are mindful of it is the December 29th 2006 event that produced over 20 tornadoes, but most were F0 and F1. Both that event and the one upcoming had similar thermodynamic variables, but the 06 event had a well defined warm front and a surface low/triple point that moved into the western CWA and created strongly backed winds near and just north of the warm front where most of the tornadic activity occurred. While we can`t rule out that this mesoscale feature won`t occur this time around, there aren`t any indications of it in the model guidance at the present time. The upper low in the 06 event was also noteworthy in its slow movement through the Sonora Desert, which likely led to a deeper layer of moisture and higher low level instability than is forecast to occur for this event.

Model guidance has slowed the progression of the system slightly which means there will be more time for richer moisture from the Gulf to return to the region, but also puts the window for severe weather more into the evening or nighttime hours. As is often the case ahead of strong cool-season systems, the strong moisture advection will result in cloud cover and limited potential for sunshine and warmer surface temperatures. Thus, it takes away the uncertainty of: "what if the clouds break up in the afternoon" and allows us to trust forecast surface instability more. Model soundings also depict the impacts of the strong dynamic forcing and lift and show the layer just above the surface will become convectively unstable. This slightly elevated convection may tend to keep the surface cooler and more stable, and limit the ability for storms to become surface based and thus lower the tornado potential.

So having said all that, we will be watching this event closely, but there`s nothing to warrant sounding the alarms for an outbreak due to the concerns about surface instability. The region we`re presently most concerned about right now is south of a Cisco to Hillsboro to Centerville line in the late afternoon into the evening hours for possible severe cellular convection ahead of the front. For most of the region a squall line along the Pacific front looks to be in play, which could result in wind damage and possibly a few brief tornadoes IF the surface isn`t too disrupted by widespread convection ahead of the front during the day.

[Brent]

only thing really noteworthy on the 0z models is the 5 inches of rain for DFW Wednesday into Thursday on the GFS