Texas Winter 2015-2016

[srainhoutx]

QPF increased for West/Central Texas Thursday night into Saturday via the 12Z Euro. The 12Z GEFS individual members are particularly bullish regarding the QPF potential across Texas during the New Year Holiday Weekend.

[wxman57]

12Z EC has light amounts of snow from the TX Panhandle SW to north of Midland and east of El Paso this Fri/Sat.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

So at best as of now, ice in Houston :'(. I think the HP will come in a bit colder then progged but only time will tell. Source region is from the NW territories. We shall see.

It has been showing this on the GFS for quite some time except the winter weather was taking place in Mexico SW of Del Rio. Maybe some snow cover in the Plains will help.

[downsouthman1]

So at best as of now, ice in Houston :'(. I think the HP will come in a bit colder then progged but only time will tell. Source region is from the NW territories. We shall see.

It has been showing this on the GFS for quite some time except the winter weather was taking place in Mexico SW of Del Rio. Maybe some snow cover in the Plains will help.

The problem with these storm systems is they are coming from the north Pacific & then digging south into Mexico where they tap the tropics & strengthen rapidly. The issue there is the US has no monitoring equipment there & we don't do soundings in Mexico. So all the discussion about the upper air network reading storm systems is work that's done during the dig. Once it has dug & starts ejecting, it's in a black hole until it comes back into TX. That's why TX gets blindsided so much. We need to get the ability to do some advanced stuff over northern Mexico. I understand not wanting to setup NWS FOs. I mean, who would want to work in those? However, maybe drone launching or something to test the atmosphere to understand how strong these storm systems can get.

[Tireman4]

Oh boy...Larry Cosgrove is thinking winter mischief for our area (Houston-Galveston)...woo hoo...stay tuned. This is on his Facebook page.

For what timeframe? I couldnt find it on his page. I believe it though

For the Magazine he writes for. I will post it when I get home...he stated North of Highway 105..

Edit: From his Facebook.....January 10-14..

Now I think this storm will be near or just offshore, and the ice/snow line will drop down to maybe TX 105 if the ECMWF and GGEM models verify. The cold looks very long-lived, now that the CFS has followed suit with the European scenario.

[srainhoutx]

The problem with these storm systems is they are coming from the north Pacific & then digging south into Mexico where they tap the tropics & strengthen rapidly. The issue there is the US has no monitoring equipment there & we don't do soundings in Mexico. So all the discussion about the upper air network reading storm systems is work that's done during the dig. Once it has dug & starts ejecting, it's in a black hole until it comes back into TX. That's why TX gets blindsided so much. We need to get the ability to do some advanced stuff over northern Mexico. I understand not wanting to setup NWS FOs. I mean, who would want to work in those? However, maybe drone launching or something to test the atmosphere to understand how strong these storm systems can get.

Actually there is a lot of upper air data gathered across Mexico and other flight paths of commercial airliners. ACARS information has been ingested into the various computer schemes since around 2002. We see that data regularly used here in Houston due to the lack of upper sounding data between Corpus Christi and Lake Charles. While it is not as detailed as RAOB data, aircraft definitely help particularly when flying across the Pacific to Hawaii and Guam.

[WeatherDuck]

Chances of precipitation in south central Texas seem to be increasing for this Friday and Saturday. Will have to see if temperatures trend downward.

[downsouthman1]

Chances of precipitation in south central Texas seem to be increasing for this Friday and Saturday. Will have to see if temperatures trend downward.

Looking at what?

[WeatherDuck]

Chances of precipitation in south central Texas seem to be increasing for this Friday and Saturday. Will have to see if temperatures trend downward.

Looking at what?

The NWS forecast for my locale seems to have gone up a little with the rain chances in the last day or two.

[Brent]

FWD has added in a slight chance of rain/snow even in the metroplex Thursday Night.

[EnnisTx]

Anyone see a possible Winter Storm in the January 9-14 time frame across the DFW Metroplex?

[Brent]

Anyone see a possible Winter Storm in the January 9-14 time frame across the DFW Metroplex?

There is a storm signal then... but it is pretty far out there so we don't know if it'll even be wintry

[downsouthman1]

Anyone see a possible Winter Storm in the January 9-14 time frame across the DFW Metroplex?

Too far out to accurately forecast. No real point speculating.

[Tireman4]

HGX AFD:

FXUS64 KHGX 292106 CCA
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
306 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FAST MOVING...LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT QUICKLY
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT...LEAVING BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT IN
PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WILL
KEEP CHANCE TO SLGT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AND DEEP ASCENT
SKIRTS THE AREA. WE MAY SEE A TAD MORE SUN TOMORROW /WHICH STILL
WON`T BE MUCH/ WITH A SLGT CHANCE TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS THIS
SYSTEM LIFTS AWAY. ALL IN ALL...NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
THE START OF THE NEW YEAR. ALTHOUGH WE MAY REACH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS
WEDNESDAY...REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL FRI THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL UNFORTUNATELY INCREASE NEW YEAR`S
EVE INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. BRISK
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP A CHILL IN THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

48

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A
WARM FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE COAST. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT TO LAND AS A RE-
ENFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS
TONIGHT MAY REACH CAUTION LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY AT LEAST OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO POSSIBLY GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE MODELS DIMINISH THE WINDS
SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL KEEP ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE.

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP KEEP THE TIDE IMPACTS SOMEWHAT MUTED.
HOWEVER...SOME TIDAL PROBLEMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA
ON FRIDAY DUE TO WAVE RUN-UP IF THE WINDS DEVELOP A MORE ONSHORE
COMPONENT.

40

&&

[Ralph's Weather]

FWD has added in a slight chance of rain/snow even in the metroplex Thursday Night.

SHV has me with a chance of rain for NYE night with a low of 38. Just across the county line FWD has rain/snow and 38. FWD is usually much more proactive with these situations.

[downsouthman1]

FWD has added in a slight chance of rain/snow even in the metroplex Thursday Night.

SHV has me with a chance of rain for NYE night with a low of 38. Just across the county line FWD has rain/snow and 38. FWD is usually much more proactive with these situations.

This is currently a minor borderline situation at best.

[gpsnowman]

Anyone see a possible Winter Storm in the January 9-14 time frame across the DFW Metroplex?

Welcome to the board EnnisTx. A lot of talk and recently with all the happenings in the atmosphere. A pattern change is slowly happening and it could get interesting in the next couple weeks. Still rather early to tell what exactly will happen at this point. Below average temps for the next week should make us all forget about the disgusting warmth and humidity in recent weeks.

[EnnisTx]

Anyone see a possible Winter Storm in the January 9-14 time frame across the DFW Metroplex?

Welcome to the board EnnisTx. A lot of talk and recently with all the happenings in the atmosphere. A pattern change is slowly happening and it could get interesting in the next couple weeks. Still rather early to tell what exactly will happen at this point. Below average temps for the next week should make us all forget about the disgusting warmth and humidity in recent weeks.

Thanks for the welcome! was a member years back, but been out of the loop. That's what I was thinking, Just thought I would pitch it out there for discussion, I love speculating when it comes to Winter Weather!

[Ralph's Weather]

FWD has added in a slight chance of rain/snow even in the metroplex Thursday Night.

SHV has me with a chance of rain for NYE night with a low of 38. Just across the county line FWD has rain/snow and 38. FWD is usually much more proactive with these situations.

This is currently a minor borderline situation at best.

Agreed, but for the next 10 days all we have are borderline minor events where at best someone may get light accumulations. Gotta track something while we wait on the stormy signal to come to fruition.

[downsouthman1]

Anyone see a possible Winter Storm in the January 9-14 time frame across the DFW Metroplex?

Welcome to the board EnnisTx. A lot of talk and recently with all the happenings in the atmosphere. A pattern change is slowly happening and it could get interesting in the next couple weeks. Still rather early to tell what exactly will happen at this point. Below average temps for the next week should make us all forget about the disgusting warmth and humidity in recent weeks.

Thanks for the welcome! was a member years back, but been out of the loop. That's what I was thinking, Just thought I would pitch it out there for discussion, I love speculating when it comes to Winter Weather!

LOL. Guess I'm jaded living further south & getting hardly any wintry precip ever. I'm in Porta's boat.