Texas Winter 2020-2021

[EnnisTx]

Excellent plan for the most excellent scenario ThunderSleet. I figure when Jesus appears again it will be at a snow covered Kyle Field

(Sorry Orangeblood )

Well of course it will be Jesus, because God will be in Austin!

Oh no not another

Probably delivering a plague

Probably a bunch of Collies and a cold rain! Lol

[utweather]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/YLVrS9h/B6957-D5-E-F566-4-B4-F-87-BD-438638-C245-F1.jpg [/url]

WRF has gone insane y’all

That would be amazing!
When is the last time Travis County had that much snow? I don't think we are prepared for something like that.

[bubba hotep]

00z Hi-res models range from the Red River down to Austin and pretty much everyone should find at least one model that makes them happy. Also, the 21z SREF has a 5.75" mean for DFW, 6" for Waco, and almost 3" at Round Rock.

[Ntxw]

00z Hi-res models range from the Red River down to Austin and pretty much everyone should find at least one model that makes them happy. Also, the 21z SREF has a 5.75" mean for DFW, 6" for Waco, and almost 3" at Round Rock.

What I'm seeing for DFW is a heavy band developing over the southwestern counties that moves E-NE. Where this cluster goes can really up the totals.

For Waco, speaks for itself they are in the thick of the high qpf.

For Austin area how quickly the changeover happens can effect amounts.

[Texas Snow]

Lol the model battle continues with the GFS 0z

Without bias of what I want, if you were to present me the scenarios of the GFS vs. some of the Hi Res at this close range it’s not even a battle. But with its consistency I’m at least considering some of it’s assumptions are correct even if the outputs I’m not 100% sure will pan out. I still think it’s a blend of areal coverage of the “other side” but without their crazy amounts as represented more so here

I think tomorrow night we will finally get an idea of which “side” will win

[orangeblood]

After looking over Hi Res Models and now even GFS coming around slowly....3-5 inches across DFW seems like a decent bet, 1-3 across Collin Denton Counties. Big gradient in amounts North to South. I’d imagine Winter Storm Warnings expanded into Tarrant, Ellis maybe Dallas County, WWAs elsewhere

Obviously just an opinion and not an official forecast!!

[Ntxw]

After looking over Hi Res Models and now even GFS coming around slowly....3-5 inches across DFW seems like a decent bet, 1-3 across Collin Denton Counties. Big gradient in amounts North to South. I’d imagine Winter Storm Warnings expanded into Tarrant, Ellis maybe Dallas County, WWAs elsewhere

Obviously just an opinion and not an official forecast!!

Is that the GFS finally catching up on the thermals? LOL

[bubba hotep]

Combo of Hi-res models and GFS-P probably is getting FWD close to pulling the Winter Storm Watch for DFW.

[Ntxw]

Lol the model battle continues with the GFS 0z

Without bias of what I want, if you were to present me the scenarios of the GFS vs. some of the Hi Res at this close range it’s not even a battle. But with its consistency I’m at least considering some of it’s assumptions are correct even if the outputs I’m not 100% sure will pan out. I still think it’s a blend of areal coverage of the “other side” but without their crazy amounts as represented more so here

I think tomorrow night we will finally get an idea of which “side” will win

There really is no winning or losing side. We're all going to get some snow. We have continued to drum the beat the GFS is out to lunch with the thermal profile. You have one of the coldest soundings we've seen, and it expects some rain? It's already slowly giving up on that idea...right before it happens.

[rwfromkansas]

I like to watch this Forecast Lab video sometimes. Really interesting analysis of the charts: https://youtu.be/fSRgUkU9utA

I have some of his books, but they are above my head. Video helps.

[txtwister78]

GEFS definitely trending south with snow potential for TX Hill Country and Austin metro points east into College Station.

[Texas Snow]

Lol the model battle continues with the GFS 0z

Without bias of what I want, if you were to present me the scenarios of the GFS vs. some of the Hi Res at this close range it’s not even a battle. But with its consistency I’m at least considering some of it’s assumptions are correct even if the outputs I’m not 100% sure will pan out. I still think it’s a blend of areal coverage of the “other side” but without their crazy amounts as represented more so here

I think tomorrow night we will finally get an idea of which “side” will win

There really is no winning or losing side. We're all going to get some snow. We have continued to drum the beat the GFS is out to lunch with the thermal profile. You have one of the coldest soundings we've seen, and it expects some rain? It's already slowly giving up on that idea...right before it happens.

Just to clarify I don’t mean winning or losing as to any of us as storm2K posters. Even though this close folks still read the models vastly differently, I hope we all win with this storm.

I am referring to the say 72 hour+ models facing off with the GFS and icon versus pretty much everyone else. “Who” wins, who loses, or do they meet in the middle in some Happy la la land where we all win?

Looking back and learning will be key for all of us forecasting the next storm (which will hopefully happen by late January!)

[txtwister78]

 https://twitter.com/BrianJamesWx/status/1347747884331102211

[Ntxw]

https://twitter.com/BrianJamesWx/status/1347747884331102211?s=20

Hi Txtwister, forgot to give you a welcome to the board I noticed your post count is new. Out of curiosity where are you located? You can add it to your profile It helps us know where our friendly members are posting from .

[txtwister78]

Pretty good jump south from 0Z UKMET

[txtwister78]

https://twitter.com/BrianJamesWx/status/1347747884331102211?s=20

Hi Txtwister, forgot to give you a welcome to the board I noticed your post count is new. Out of curiosity where are you located? You can add it to your profile It helps us know where our friendly members are posting from .

Appreciate the welcome. I will add it. San Antonio

[txtwister78]

CMC ENS

[Quixotic]

That consistent notch from Denton county and points NNE irks me. Maybe some LES from Lake Lewisville will help me out.

[Ralph's Weather]

It's almost comical how warm the GFS is keeping the surface. 35 to 37 vs other models at 32 to 33. Given the upper air profiles I expect to see sub freezing temps beneath the heavy bands.

[SouthernMet]

https://twitter.com/BrianJamesWx/status/1347747884331102211?s=20

The consequential substance of what Brian James is saying is true, and a great point. However, HRRR/RGEM have the onset of precip moving into Fort Worth around 7-8am and it wont take long to saturate the column from there, maybe an hour or 2 tops.