Texas Winter 2019-2020

[harp]

I notice about half of the 12z GFS ensembles show a winter storm across the state around the 20th.

12z Mean (snow from this morning doesn't really show up in this)

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-%20Iavg/tx/total_snow_10to1/1578744000/1580126400-SL2h6BSq0K4.png

I'm over here in south Louisiana west of New Orleans. I'm so glad you Texas folks got some snow! I know it's been a while for you!! Congrats!! On to the next event. Hopefully it will include your neighbors to the east!

[bubba hotep]

12z GEFS 5-day mean, that would be a very cold look for everyone east of the Rockies

[TropicalTundra]

I notice about half of the 12z GFS ensembles show a winter storm across the state around the 20th.

12z Mean (snow from this morning doesn't really show up in this)

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/total_snow_10to1/1578744000/1580126400-SL2h6BSq0K4.png

I wish

[Rgv20]

12zGFS Ensemble showing a pretty strong signal on a colder pattern setting up for mid next week.

[CaptinCrunch]

The shortwave that brought the snow was a little to far north for any really amounts south of DFW airport. The winners were Montague, Denton, Collin counties and counties north of.

Sad that 0.2" was the most snow recorded since 2015, that's almost 5 damn years. Good news is we are house looking up in Denton so maybe by next Christmas we'll be in new digs.

[KatDaddy]

I am very happy for my NTX friends and family who got to experience snow this morning. My family in Roanoke posted snow photos and a video on FB. It was beautiful. 47 years ago today I was enjoying my first snowfall in down here Pearland, TX at the age of 5.

[northjaxpro]

Congratulations to all of you in North Texas in receiving a snow event over there, the first in like 5 years right? I have been following this thread through the years, and know how badly many in that region were aching to finally get the white stuff. It was an amazing streak and today that finally came to an end!

Now, can you all pray to the Weather Gods about finally ending the non - NAO streak during meteorological winter seasons please? I miss having any type of winter weather in my neck of the woods. Yeah, even for North Florida standards, we used to average between 10 -15 measured freezes a meteorological season. However, since the beginning of 2011, our seasonal average of measured freezes here in Jacksonville have dropped to just an average of only 4-5 freezes a season. We only had a total of just 3 freezes all winter season for 2018-19 . We have had unbelievable and insanely warm winters thanks to the + NAO each and every winter season. Guess what folks? We are smack dab in another strong +NAO right now!! We are approaching record max temps today, and will continue so for the next several days. Yeah, Global Warming, Climate Change is all responsible for this , and I will save that talk for another time.

This has been a streak we have had ongoing much longer than your snowless streak, now at 9 years and counting! It is the most amazing weather anomaly I have ever seen occur, just as impressive of the Florida 11-year streak of not having a hurricane strike, which that came to an end in 2016 with Hurricane Hermine.

So, I just want a resemblance of winters past, which we can't buy around here anymore! The A/B/ Southeast Ridge has become our seemingly permanent fixture every winter season, and it is like a broken record Oh, OK I did not mean to go on a little mini rant, but once again, congrats North Texans on FINALLY getting Mother Nature to cooperate with you all out there with seeing the snow!

[gboudx]

Rockwall got some flurries, so this doesn't count for us.

I was watching the FCS championship game between James Madison and North Dakota St, which is in Frisco. Noticed snow had been shoveled off to the side. Nice Frisco.

[1900hurricane]

I've seen some speculation that VBV was the failure mode for this event, but that doesn't look like the case to me. Yesterday/last night had both incredible speed and directional shear in the low levels with little to no backing in the lowest 3 km. What I rather think kept the lid on the event was poor low level lapse rates. Ahead of the cold front, numerous streamer showers developed amid warm air advection in the low level jet, but insufficient surface heating made it hard for even developed storms to root down to the surface. The 06Z LCH sounding overlaid on the 00Z sounding from there shows that as the low level jet ramped up, it advected even warmer air in the 850-700 mb layer with it. Low level lapse rates fell sub-moist adiabatic despite nearly identical surface conditions. Even along the squall line, despite extremely impressive winds aloft detected by radar, they didn't mix down to the surface except in the strongest downdrafts. KCLL only had a 44 mi/hr maximum gust last night, despite radar velocities range folding from KGRK.

[opticsguy]

GFS predicted 0.2" of snow at DFW!

[TropicalTundra]

140 guests currently on this thread most I’ve seen in about a month

[Cpv17]

Both the GFS and Euro operationals don’t look all that great. We’ll see what the EPS says here soon, but I doubt it’ll show anything. The GEFS is the only thing that looks good right now.

[gpsnowman]

140 guests currently on this thread most I’ve seen in about a month

I thought 140 was a lot until I just looked, up to 280 now. Strange seeing a total that high even for huge events. The more the merrier.

[Ntxw]

I've seen some speculation that VBV was the failure mode for this event, but that doesn't look like the case to me. Yesterday/last night had both incredible speed and directional shear in the low levels with little to no backing in the lowest 3 km. What I rather think kept the lid on the event was poor low level lapse rates. Ahead of the cold front, numerous streamer showers developed amid warm air advection in the low level jet, but insufficient surface heating made it hard for even developed storms to root down to the surface. The 06Z LCH sounding overlaid on the 00Z sounding from there shows that as the low level jet ramped up, it advected even warmer air in the 850-700 mb layer with it. Low level lapse rates fell sub-moist adiabatic despite nearly identical surface conditions. Even along the squall line, despite extremely impressive winds aloft detected by radar, they didn't mix down to the surface except in the strongest downdrafts. KCLL only had a 44 mi/hr maximum gust last night, despite radar velocities range folding from KGRK.

https://i.imgur.com/J3Lmctm.png

It is January after all. You can only get so "warm" in the heart of winter. There was great PVa, if only it were March then it would have been a whole different story. Expectations for January shouldn't be all that high anyway! 60s is not going to cut it.

[Texas Snow]

I want all 280 to all know that even though some beautiful flakes flew, the vast majority of places didn’t even have grass turn white so I declare that this indeed was not the end of the great DFW snow drought (although it was a nice appetizer).

I have spoken

[wxman22]

If there was more instability storms definitely would have been worse. But I wouldn't call it a bust here in southeast Texas as there are many pictures and reports of wind damage across the area including metro Houston.

[BrokenGlass]

I want all 280 to all know that even though some beautiful flakes flew, the vast majority of places didn’t even have grass turn white so I declare that this indeed was not the end of the great DFW snow drought (although it was a nice appetizer).

I have spoken

Endorsed


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[TheProfessor]

I really don't think instability was the issue yesterday, I've seen storm systems with less shear(but still high shear) and less instability have far worse outbreaks up north. The problem was messy storm mode. Now if you want to blame that on vbv or not be my guest. But had there been more numerous discrete storms yesterday the outbreak would have been far worse.

[Cerlin]

I want all 280 to all know that even though some beautiful flakes flew, the vast majority of places didn’t even have grass turn white so I declare that this indeed was not the end of the great DFW snow drought (although it was a nice appetizer).

I have spoken

I second this! I didn’t get enough to stick on anything but the car.

[Portastorm]

Congratulations to you North Texans! I’m happy y’all got some snow.