Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Cerlin]

Looks like all the models keep backing away from (and delaying) any very cold/ice across Texas after New Year's. There are SO many run-to-run differences. Don't believe any solution you see beyond 2-3 days.

Models have been backing off for 3 years...

[Yukon Cornelius]

Looks like all the models keep backing away from (and delaying) any very cold/ice across Texas after New Year's. There are SO many run-to-run differences. Don't believe any solution you see beyond 2-3 days.

Models have been backing off for 3 years...

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Looks like all the models keep backing away from (and delaying) any very cold/ice across Texas after New Year's. There are SO many run-to-run differences. Don't believe any solution you see beyond 2-3 days.

Except when they say Winter Cancel. Right?

[TheProfessor]

There were some fairly impressive Skew-ts on the 0z GFS for South-central Texas and pretty impressive turning up in DFW. Would make it possible for QLCS tornadoes if the storm mode was linear. The 12z GFS has backed off on some of the warmer temps and dew points in DFW though. I'm looking forward to what the NAM thinks when it gets in range.

[Rgv20]

Currently 85/83 in McAllen/Edinburg Latest Christmas day forecast is calling for a high of 80

[Haris]

80F currently officially in the Austin area.

DIsgusting !

[rwfromkansas]

Looks like all the models keep backing away from (and delaying) any very cold/ice across Texas after New Year's. There are SO many run-to-run differences. Don't believe any solution you see beyond 2-3 days.

New year, same s&$t.

It’s frustrating that it started off so cold in November. But we have had previous years start off great and then winter torched. Don’t see the pattern conducive to that this year from my limited knowledge.

[Brent]

Looks like all the models keep backing away from (and delaying) any very cold/ice across Texas after New Year's. There are SO many run-to-run differences. Don't believe any solution you see beyond 2-3 days.

Models have been backing off for 3 years...

FWD AFD

Thursday and Beyond---Rain/storm chances will taper off from west
to east through the day on Thursday as a Pacific front plows
eastward. The northwest flow in the wake of the front may actually
result in some pretty mild conditions thanks to downsloping and
adiabatic compression. The "bottom" won`t really fall out
temperature wise until Friday when winds become northerly behind a
much stronger, albeit shallower, front. Ascent atop this frontal
boundary Saturday and into Sunday could result in a decent
precipitation shield. While too early to get into specifics, there
may be a potential for some wintry weather across parts of the
area next weekend if strong CAA commences behind the front. Stay
tuned for details.

[Cpv17]

I have a question for you guys to whoever can answer it, but why is the cold air for next weekend on the models having such a hard time advancing into the eastern half of the state? Is there a ridge in the southeast?

[bubba hotep]

18z GFS

[Cerlin]

18z GFS

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018122218/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_44.png

Still too far out but nice to see some models showing something.

[Brent]

4 days(!) of very cold rain starting next weekend through New Years Day on the GFS big snowstorm in W TX

I really hope the GFS is too warm like usual

Edit maybe some light snow as it ends late New Years Day for Dallas but that's a lot of rain...

[bubba hotep]

00z GFS and FV3

[Cpv17]

00z GFS and FV3

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018122300/fv3p_asnow_eus_41.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018122300/gfs_asnow_scus_41.png

Still doesn’t look all that good for DFW. Plus it looks like it would be more of an ice storm than snow.

[bubba hotep]

00z GFS and FV3

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018122300/fv3p_asnow_eus_41.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018122300/gfs_asnow_scus_41.png

Still doesn’t look all that good for DFW. Plus it looks like it would be more of an ice storm than snow.

Too far out to split hairs, but the it wouldn't be surprising to see the GFS trend colder. The biggest thing to watch is the timing of the various waves coming out of the Pacific and how they kick out after entering the SW.

[Cpv17]

00z GFS and FV3

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018122300/fv3p_asnow_eus_41.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018122300/gfs_asnow_scus_41.png

Still doesn’t look all that good for DFW. Plus it looks like it would be more of an ice storm than snow.

Too far out to split hairs, but the it wouldn't be surprising to see the GFS trend colder. The biggest thing to watch is the timing of the various waves coming out of the Pacific and how they kick out after entering the SW.

Bubba, do you see a warmup after next weekend or do you think the cold will continue?

[Brent]

00z GFS and FV3

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018122300/fv3p_asnow_eus_41.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018122300/gfs_asnow_scus_41.png

I'm really over these cutoffs around the metro

The euro isnt that cold really and warms back up near average by New Year's Day

[Cpv17]

00z GFS and FV3

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018122300/fv3p_asnow_eus_41.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018122300/gfs_asnow_scus_41.png

I'm really over these cutoffs around the metro

The euro isnt that cold really and warms back up near average by New Year's Day

This is why I asked earlier if there’s a southeast ridge or something preventing the cold from moving further south and east. It looks like it’s confined mainly to west Texas.

[Brent]

00z GFS and FV3

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018122300/fv3p_asnow_eus_41.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018122300/gfs_asnow_scus_41.png

I'm really over these cutoffs around the metro

The euro isnt that cold really and warms back up near average by New Year's Day

This is why I asked earlier if there’s a southeast ridge or something preventing the cold from moving further south and east. It looks like it’s confined mainly to west Texas.

It definitely is a factor if you look at it

but at the same time we need a SE ridge to get a true good setup pretty much it seems(at least for DFW)

[wxman57]

I have a question for you guys to whoever can answer it, but why is the cold air for next weekend on the models having such a hard time advancing into the eastern half of the state? Is there a ridge in the southeast?

That scenario is very common when the trough axis remains to the west of Texas. Upper-level winds are blowing from southwest to northeast across the state, so the cold air doesn't have any "help" in moving eastward, it just drains southward.