Texas winter wx thread#5 - big changes on the way eventually

Yankeegirl · #141 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Mon Jan 08, 2007 4:18 pm

I remember the ice storm here in 97... I lived up in Humble at the time... I remember hearing the trees and powerlines snapping and the power going out around midnight and not coming back on till the next day....Is that the kind of ice storm that is possibly in the works if this pans out for next week?

cctxhurricanewatcher · #142 Postby **cctxhurricanewatcher** » Mon Jan 08, 2007 4:21 pm

Toady1 wrote:Like most folks I have a good memory of the 97' outbreak and ice storm. I might be showing my age a bit....but considering the cold air predicted to arrive, how does it compare the arctic outbreak in I believe 1984-85? I was in Corpus at the time, and that was one of the coldest outbreaks in years...stayed below freezing for I think almost 60 hours, palm trees died, and small portions of the back bay (nueces bay) had a very thin layer of ice. A severe fish kill followed. NOW THAT'S COLD. Can anyone elighten me on this comparison?

Actually the bay freezing in portions was with the 1983 Christmas freeze.

In Jan 1985, San Antonio got hit with a foot of snow which resulted in an ice storm for the RGV and Corpus. I was living in the RGV at the time and recall them canceling school the next day because of the ice storm.

#143 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Mon Jan 08, 2007 4:26 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
323 PM CST MON JAN 8 2007

.DISCUSSION...
GOOD WARM UP THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE SET UP
AHEAD OF THE NEXT REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER AIR COMING IN LATE
TONIGHT. SEASONABLY COOL...YET NICE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. MAV MOS IS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS...BUT HAVE GONE COOLER
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING UP HIGHER
MOISTURE WED-THURS...BUT THE CAP REMAINS STRONG THROUGH FRIDAY SO
WILL JUST HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER
FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN BY
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN UTILIZED.

MAIN WEATHER STORY CONCERNS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND SOME
POSSIBLE WINTER PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A COMPACT POLAR VORTEX OVER ALASKA WILL BEGIN TO DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND CARVE OUT A LARGE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WEST COAST BY THURSDAY. STRONG PRESSURE RISES ARE
BEGINNING TO OCCUR OVER ALASKA RIGHT NOW...AND SURFACE TEMPS ARE
RUNNING -40 TO -50 DEG AND CONTINUE TO FALL. MODELS PROG A 1045 MB
SURFACE HIGH TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING POLAR
VORTEX. THIS WILL PULL DOWN SOME OF THIS BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR
WITH MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS BELOW ZERO BY FRIDAY MORNING.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SIT OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY WHICH
WILL IMPEDE THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE ARCTIC AIR DUE TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. NEVERTHELESS...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH
THESE DENSE AIRMASSES...COLD AIR DAMMING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES WILL FORCE A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF ARCTIC AIR SOUTH.
MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO SLOW WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THIS TYPE OF
SITUATION...AND HAVE SPED IT UP TO ARRIVE IN THE NW CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE ADVANCEMENT MORE QUICKLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
THAN THE EASTERN. THIS WILL BRING FREEZING TEMPS INTO THE CWA
SATURDAY EVENING...WITH THE FREEZE LINE ADVANCING STEADILY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA. OUR TEMPERATURE
FORECAST HAS SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT THE GFS MOS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TEMPS. A
COUPLE DAYS BELOW FREEZING OR SOME LOWS IN THE TEENS ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.

ANY POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS FREEZING RAIN...BUT SOME
SLEET MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE RATHER SUSPECT AT THIS TIME...BUT MODELS SEEM TO
SUGGEST THAT A COMBINATION OF FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL HELP CREATE BRIEF EPISODES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. NOT UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA WILL WE
HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE ON WHEN PRECIP CHANCES END. THIS DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE A MAJOR ICE STORM AT THIS TIME...BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING...ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD
CAUSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS. THIS IS A SITUATION THAT BEARS WATCHING.

We'll see what pans out from this forecast later this week!!

Toady1 · #144 Postby **Toady1** » Mon Jan 08, 2007 4:28 pm

cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:
Toady1 wrote:Like most folks I have a good memory of the 97' outbreak and ice storm. I might be showing my age a bit....but considering the cold air predicted to arrive, how does it compare the arctic outbreak in I believe 1984-85? I was in Corpus at the time, and that was one of the coldest outbreaks in years...stayed below freezing for I think almost 60 hours, palm trees died, and small portions of the back bay (nueces bay) had a very thin layer of ice. A severe fish kill followed. NOW THAT'S COLD. Can anyone elighten me on this comparison?

Actually the bay freezing in portions was with the 1983 Christmas freeze.

In Jan 1985, San Antonio got hit with a foot of snow which resulted in an ice storm for the RGV and Corpus. I was living in the RGV at the time and recall them canceling school the next day because of the ice storm.

That's Right !!! It was 1983 Christmas time!!! Pipes busted all over the coastal bend. I dont even think the back bay has froze like that since right. ?? Fish kill made the TPWD open the season on collecting the dying fish that floated to the surface belly up. Thanks for the trip down memory lane cctxhurricanewatcher. Im from Portland and my folks still live at Ingleside on the Bay.

#145 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Mon Jan 08, 2007 4:30 pm

Toady1 wrote:
cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:
Toady1 wrote:Like most folks I have a good memory of the 97' outbreak and ice storm. I might be showing my age a bit....but considering the cold air predicted to arrive, how does it compare the arctic outbreak in I believe 1984-85? I was in Corpus at the time, and that was one of the coldest outbreaks in years...stayed below freezing for I think almost 60 hours, palm trees died, and small portions of the back bay (nueces bay) had a very thin layer of ice. A severe fish kill followed. NOW THAT'S COLD. Can anyone elighten me on this comparison?

Actually the bay freezing in portions was with the 1983 Christmas freeze.

In Jan 1985, San Antonio got hit with a foot of snow which resulted in an ice storm for the RGV and Corpus. I was living in the RGV at the time and recall them canceling school the next day because of the ice storm.

That's Right !!! It was 1983 Christmas time!!! Pipes busted all over the coastal bend. I dont even think the back bay has froze like that since right. ?? Fish kill made the TPWD open the season on collecting the dying fish that floated to the surface belly up. Thanks for the trip down memory lane cctxhurricanewatcher. Im from Portland and my folks still live at Ingleside on the Bay.

It bottemed out at -1 below on the 23rd of Dec. 3rd all time low for D/FW area.

Toady1 · #146 Postby **Toady1** » Mon Jan 08, 2007 4:33 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:
Toady1 wrote:
cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:
Toady1 wrote:Like most folks I have a good memory of the 97' outbreak and ice storm. I might be showing my age a bit....but considering the cold air predicted to arrive, how does it compare the arctic outbreak in I believe 1984-85? I was in Corpus at the time, and that was one of the coldest outbreaks in years...stayed below freezing for I think almost 60 hours, palm trees died, and small portions of the back bay (nueces bay) had a very thin layer of ice. A severe fish kill followed. NOW THAT'S COLD. Can anyone elighten me on this comparison?

Actually the bay freezing in portions was with the 1983 Christmas freeze.

In Jan 1985, San Antonio got hit with a foot of snow which resulted in an ice storm for the RGV and Corpus. I was living in the RGV at the time and recall them canceling school the next day because of the ice storm.

That's Right !!! It was 1983 Christmas time!!! Pipes busted all over the coastal bend. I dont even think the back bay has froze like that since right. ?? Fish kill made the TPWD open the season on collecting the dying fish that floated to the surface belly up. Thanks for the trip down memory lane cctxhurricanewatcher. Im from Portland and my folks still live at Ingleside on the Bay.

It bottemed out at -1 below on the 23rd of Dec. 3rd all time low for D/FW area.

-1...holy blue nose that's cold. Yo Captain, does the predicted cold snap look anything like the 83' outbreak?

HarlequinBoy · #147 Postby **HarlequinBoy** » Mon Jan 08, 2007 4:35 pm

With cold air in place for most of next week, there's the possibility of wintry weather even if late next weekend turns out to be just rain.

#148 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Jan 08, 2007 4:36 pm

I have not seen anything that would suggest temperatures coming close to that 1983 arctic outbreak.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, I am most pleased with the forecast discussion out of NWSFO Austin/San Antonio. They're bullish on this event. Rather than bore you with details. Here's the link:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

Hey, props to my locals!

Kelarie · #149 Postby **Kelarie** » Mon Jan 08, 2007 4:43 pm

From Austin/San Antonio NWS office....

THE MARTIN LUTHER KING WEEKEND FORECAST CONTINUES LOOK LIKE A POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER EVENT FOR S TX AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS PLUNGES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...PUSHING IN THE HILL COUNTRY AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES TO SUPPORT CONVECTION AHEAD OF/WITH THE FRONT SATURDAY...THEN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE LOW LEVELS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST MONDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE GOOD CHANCES FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WITH THE MOIST SUBTROPICAL FLOW ALOFT AND THE COLD DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS BELOW. WILL CONTINUE
WITH MENTION OF FREEZING/FROZEN PCPN OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT AREAS MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THE NRN HILL COUNTRY COULD SEE WINTER PCPN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE ARCTIC AIR. THE DEEP SNOW PACK EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL CERTAINLY MINIMIZE MODIFICATION OF THIS ARCTIC AIR AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD.

IN SUMMARY HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF DRASTICALLY DROPPING GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS THRU THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS THE WINTER PCPN WOULD MOST LIKELY START IN THE HILL COUNTRY IN FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AS THE COLD AIR WILL INITIALLY BE VERY SHALLOW...BUT WITH CAA/EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD SEE A CHANGE OVER THE SLEET OR EVEN SNOW AS THE AIRMASS DEEPENS. MUCH TOO EARLY TO PONDER ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS...BUT THIS SYSTEM CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER OTHER THAN JUST COLD TEMPERATURES...SO BEARS A CLOSE WATCH.

cctxhurricanewatcher · #150 Postby **cctxhurricanewatcher** » Mon Jan 08, 2007 4:44 pm

Toady1 wrote:
cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:
Toady1 wrote:Like most folks I have a good memory of the 97' outbreak and ice storm. I might be showing my age a bit....but considering the cold air predicted to arrive, how does it compare the arctic outbreak in I believe 1984-85? I was in Corpus at the time, and that was one of the coldest outbreaks in years...stayed below freezing for I think almost 60 hours, palm trees died, and small portions of the back bay (nueces bay) had a very thin layer of ice. A severe fish kill followed. NOW THAT'S COLD. Can anyone elighten me on this comparison?

Actually the bay freezing in portions was with the 1983 Christmas freeze.

In Jan 1985, San Antonio got hit with a foot of snow which resulted in an ice storm for the RGV and Corpus. I was living in the RGV at the time and recall them canceling school the next day because of the ice storm.

That's Right !!! It was 1983 Christmas time!!! Pipes busted all over the coastal bend. I dont even think the back bay has froze like that since right. ?? Fish kill made the TPWD open the season on collecting the dying fish that floated to the surface belly up. Thanks for the trip down memory lane cctxhurricanewatcher. Im from Portland and my folks still live at Ingleside on the Bay.

Maybe the Pre Christmas freeze of 1989 did as well. It got down to 12 at my home in the RGV during that freeze.

#151 Postby **gboudx** » Mon Jan 08, 2007 4:44 pm

Portastorm wrote:I have not seen anything that would suggest temperatures coming close to that 1983 arctic outbreak.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, I am most pleased with the forecast discussion out of NWSFO Austin/San Antonio. They're bullish on this event. Rather than bore you with details. Here's the link:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

Hey, props to my locals!

Like DFW, they issue a Bear Watch.

HarlequinBoy · #152 Postby **HarlequinBoy** » Mon Jan 08, 2007 4:45 pm

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 PM CST MON JAN 8 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-091100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
330 PM CST MON JAN 8 2007

...ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS
SATURDAY...BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. WHILE
THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND JUST HOW COLD IT WILL BE...IT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT
SOME VERY COLD AIR IS ON THE WAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING
SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL
AS FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY AND ON INTO MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
THREAT OF WINTER PRECIPITATION AND IT IS TOO DIFFICULT TO PROVIDE
SPECIFIC FORECASTS CONCERNING THE COVERAGE...EXACT TIMING...OR
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WILL CONTINUE TO ANALYZE
INCOMING WEATHER DATA AND GENERATE MORE PRECISE FORECASTS ON THIS
POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DURING THIS
TIME...PERSONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA TO STAY INFORMED OF THIS DEVELOPING
WEATHER SITUATION.

cctxhurricanewatcher · #153 Postby **cctxhurricanewatcher** » Mon Jan 08, 2007 4:48 pm

Kelarie wrote:From Austin/San Antonio NWS office....

HOWEVER THE NRN HILL COUNTRY COULD SEE WINTER PCPN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE ARCTIC AIR. THE DEEP SNOW PACK EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL CERTAINLY MINIMIZE MODIFICATION OF THIS ARCTIC AIR AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD.

And that is why the GFS numbers will bust like the dot.com bubble next Sunday. It doesn't take to account the snowpack up north and the effect it has on air masses charging south.

#154 Postby **gboudx** » Mon Jan 08, 2007 4:49 pm

Hmmm....DFW day shift issues another SWS. Let's see if the night shift removes it again.

Toady1 · #155 Postby **Toady1** » Mon Jan 08, 2007 4:53 pm

cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:
Toady1 wrote:
cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:
Toady1 wrote:Like most folks I have a good memory of the 97' outbreak and ice storm. I might be showing my age a bit....but considering the cold air predicted to arrive, how does it compare the arctic outbreak in I believe 1984-85? I was in Corpus at the time, and that was one of the coldest outbreaks in years...stayed below freezing for I think almost 60 hours, palm trees died, and small portions of the back bay (nueces bay) had a very thin layer of ice. A severe fish kill followed. NOW THAT'S COLD. Can anyone elighten me on this comparison?

Actually the bay freezing in portions was with the 1983 Christmas freeze.

In Jan 1985, San Antonio got hit with a foot of snow which resulted in an ice storm for the RGV and Corpus. I was living in the RGV at the time and recall them canceling school the next day because of the ice storm.

That's Right !!! It was 1983 Christmas time!!! Pipes busted all over the coastal bend. I dont even think the back bay has froze like that since right. ?? Fish kill made the TPWD open the season on collecting the dying fish that floated to the surface belly up. Thanks for the trip down memory lane cctxhurricanewatcher. Im from Portland and my folks still live at Ingleside on the Bay.

Maybe the Pre Christmas freeze of 1989 did as well. It got down to 12 at my home in the RGV during that freeze.

Ah yes....just got out of school and moved back to Corpus at that time. It didnt last very long if I remember correctly. Thanks !!

cctxhurricanewatcher · #156 Postby **cctxhurricanewatcher** » Mon Jan 08, 2007 4:56 pm

1989 freeze lasted about three days, and like 1983 it was the big mama front of a pretty long cold spell. However 1983 was longer as far as the prolong temps below normal before and after the big front.

Extremeweatherguy · #157 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jan 08, 2007 4:56 pm

Wow. If the CPC is right, then I don't see how anyone in TX will be able to avoid extreme cold and winter weather next week (except may be the far south). This pattern just seems too favorable for both...

double D · #158 Postby **double D** » Mon Jan 08, 2007 5:03 pm

cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:
Kelarie wrote:From Austin/San Antonio NWS office....

HOWEVER THE NRN HILL COUNTRY COULD SEE WINTER PCPN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE ARCTIC AIR. THE DEEP SNOW PACK EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL CERTAINLY MINIMIZE MODIFICATION OF THIS ARCTIC AIR AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD.

And that is why the GFS numbers will bust like the dot.com bubble next Sunday. It doesn't take to account the snowpack up north and the effect it has on air masses charging south.

Thats what Amarillo NWS has been saying for awhile too. Thats why I also think it will move through the state faster than the gfs progs.

#159 Postby **gboudx** » Mon Jan 08, 2007 5:05 pm

EWG, that's only the 6-10 day outlooks. The 8-14 continue the much below normal temps and above avg precip too.

TexasStooge · #160 Postby **TexasStooge** » Mon Jan 08, 2007 5:20 pm

We're definitely gonna have a busy weekend. Just hope the roads don't ice over when me and my family are going to church on Sunday.

Texas winter wx thread#5 - big changes on the way eventually

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