0z GFS VERY intresting

[jasons2k]

my forecast for last night was pretty much right on. It is 30 at my house this morning with lots of frost, and it is 32 at Hooks and 34 (but may drop to 33 at 7am) at IAH. This is the coldest morning in weeks, and I will actually have to wear a jacket to begin the day. This afternoon though we warm into the upper 60s and it feels nice. Also wanted to point out that this morning we are colder than Chicago, Dallas, St. Louis, Denver and Boston.

Well I got lucky. 33 at the house this AM. Lots of frost on the rooftops but the plants look OK

[Portastorm]

my forecast for last night was pretty much right on. It is 30 at my house this morning with lots of frost, and it is 32 at Hooks and 34 (but may drop to 33 at 7am) at IAH. This is the coldest morning in weeks, and I will actually have to wear a jacket to begin the day. This afternoon though we warm into the upper 60s and it feels nice. Also wanted to point out that this morning we are colder than Chicago, Dallas, St. Louis, Denver and Boston.

Well I got lucky. 33 at the house this AM. Lots of frost on the rooftops but the plants look OK

Y'all must be closer to the center of the ridge ... it got down to 38 at my house in north Austin.

[Johnny]

AFM, now you are talking my language. That cold Thursday back in early December was very nice. During lunch I went to old town spring to do a little bit of christmas shopping. The christmas music was going in the shops, it was 31 degrees outside, cloudy and a very stiff wind blowing. Also a few snow flakes were falling just a little further north. That really got me in the christmas spirit.

I got back to the office that day and decided to head back home to sit in my deer stand. I decided to hunt my open tripod and luckily I was bundled up pretty good. The north wind was slapping me in the face and I was crying like a baby. lol Right near dark I had a younger buck come into my corn but I decided to not to take him since I already harvested one a little bigger a few weeks before. Also the thought of tracking him in 29 degree weather, gutting him and quartering him up didn't really appeal to me since I was already freezing my you know what off. That was a very good day indeed.

So what you need to do for us here later on this month AFM is give us a couple more of these. hehe It looks like we are starting to trend colder...not record breaking cold but maybe cold enough to keep us in the 40's during the day? With the cold coming down in the coming weeks, do you think it will be a clear cold or a cloudy cold? Do you see any moisture or cloud cover coming into the picture with this cold in the coming weeks?

[Air Force Met]

With the cold coming down in the coming weeks, do you think it will be a clear cold or a cloudy cold? Do you see any moisture or cloud cover coming into the picture with this cold in the coming weeks?

I think it's a dry cold...but I don't see any real cold for any extended periods. I think a couple of shots at 10-15F below normal for lows and highs if we're lucky.

really though...who knows. What I would like to see is a big ridge into Alaska and a big cut off low off the Baja sending shortwaves over us...with arctic air being sent southward into Texas.

That would be nice.

[Portastorm]

With the cold coming down in the coming weeks, do you think it will be a clear cold or a cloudy cold? Do you see any moisture or cloud cover coming into the picture with this cold in the coming weeks?

I think it's a dry cold...but I don't see any real cold for any extended periods. I think a couple of shots at 10-15F below normal for lows and highs if we're lucky.

really though...who knows. What I would like to see is a big ridge into Alaska and a big cut off low off the Baja sending shortwaves over us...with arctic air being sent southward into Texas.

That would be nice.

Now you're talking AFM ... that would be sa-weeeeet!

[Extremeweatherguy]

my forecast for last night was pretty much right on. It is 30 at my house this morning with lots of frost, and it is 32 at Hooks and 34 (but may drop to 33 at 7am) at IAH. This is the coldest morning in weeks, and I will actually have to wear a jacket to begin the day. This afternoon though we warm into the upper 60s and it feels nice. Also wanted to point out that this morning we are colder than Chicago, Dallas, St. Louis, Denver and Boston.

Are you near a field? Even though I am all the way down in Angleton, I run about the same as IAH as far as lows are concerned when radiational cooling is involved due to the fact I am near a cow pasture. Matter of fact, this morning...I was colder. We were 32 at the house...LBX was 30....they are in the middle of the woods with fields on either side.

I am actually not near a field...but I do have a big (low) open grass area in my backyard and a gazebo near that is where I take my temp. readings.

[Tyler]

This morning was certainly a cold morning. 30 degrees was my low. Brrrr...

Looks like next monday will be quite a rough day, with the possibility of severe weather:

12Z GFS REMAINS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS RUNS WITH AN INTENSIFYING 500 MB
TROUGH CROSSING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND AND REACHING
TEXAS ON MONDAY. PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD
LEAD TO A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY. MOST TELLING
IS THE GFS PROG OF SE TX GOING INTO THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 130
KNOT 250 MB JET STREAK AS THE DRYLINE CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...GFS SHOWS 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING
WHICH TRANSPORTS PWS OF 1.6 INCHES INTO THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...AND
SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST LAYERS. STILL DAYS OUT
WITH CHANGES IN MODEL RUNS LIKELY...BUT SOMETHING WE`LL NEED TO WATCH.
IN THE MEANTIME HAVE LOW POPS BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONSET OF
HIGHER MOISTURE...GOING UP TO 40 POPS MONDAY. THESE POPS WILL HAVE TO
BE INCREASED IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

35
&&

[Extremeweatherguy]

tonight's run of the GFS has picked back up on some colder weather mid next week. It has 850mb numbers down to between 0C and -5C by the 18th. GFS surface numbers show a high near 55 for next Wednesday which would be the coldest high since before Christmas.

[Johnny]

GFS surface numbers show a high near 55 for next Wednesday which would be the coldest high since before Christmas.

Brrrrr. Boy howdy, I better break out my parka!!!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

GFS surface numbers show a high near 55 for next Wednesday which would be the coldest high since before Christmas.

Brrrrr. Boy howdy, I better break out my parka!!!!

lol yeah...but hey it would be the first below normal high in almost what seems like a month!

[Donwx]

Looks like the GFS has flipped back to cold with possibly some wintery precip in Texas...

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

The NWS AFD's this morning from the Texas offices all note the possiblity of a strong cold front coming in Monday and possibly knocking overnight temsp colse to freezing down this far south for Tuesday night. If that's the case, their forecasts of afternoon temps reaching the 60's maybe a little on the high side. If past performance is a clue, I'd guess they will revise the temps downward a tad starting on Sunday.

One of the on air Metos said the front after this one will be stronger and thinks we are starting to see a patern change that could lead to wetter weather. Boy do we need that.

[Portastorm]

The NWS AFD's this morning from the Texas offices all note the possiblity of a strong cold front coming in Monday and possibly knocking overnight temsp colse to freezing down this far south for Tuesday night. If that's the case, their forecasts of afternoon temps reaching the 60's maybe a little on the high side. If past performance is a clue, I'd guess they will revise the temps downward a tad starting on Sunday.

One of the on air Metos said the front after this one will be stronger and thinks we are starting to see a patern change that could lead to wetter weather. Boy do we need that.

I think it's almost a lock now that the pattern will change to a colder, wetter scenario for Texas. Now when I say "colder" I am not implying historic freezes. From what I see, it just looks like a return to seasonal temps with an active southern jet stream.

Hey AFM ... maybe you'll get your cloudy, cool, damp day before too long! Too bad deer season is over.

I'm excited that we in Austin look to have a good shot at least .25 to .50 of precip Sunday night into Monday. Pathetic, I know ... but in this pattern I will take what I can get!

[jasons2k]

Well, here is HGX's current take on the temps next week:

VERY DRY AIRMASS FOLLOWS AND LARGE HIGH SETTLES OVER SETX WHICH SHOULD SPELL OUT DRY WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES RECOVER. EVEN WITH THESE TWO
FRONTS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE EITHER NEAR NORMAL OR WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yeah, but the NWS never catches onto these cold snaps until days before. Just look at the freeze 2 nights ago...it was not forecast until hours before and never mentioned in the long range discussions as a possibility. As for the models..they are looking colder than the NWS is predicting, and JB is also predicting colder, saying that even the models are too warm. We will have a much better idea come this weekend...but as for now, I am going to make the call that we are colder than the current NWS forecast.

[gboudx]

Those maps are for 1/23 which is 11 days out. We all know how reliable those are. Eventually, the long-rage GFS will be right. May not be this month, this year, or this decade.

[Portastorm]

It's not just the GFS but also the European that is consistently projecting a more persistant trough in the west and ridge in the east and southeast U.S.

This pattern change will enable more seasonable air to flow southward and a more active jetstream pattern for the southern Plains. Pick whatever model you like ... outcome is the same.

[gboudx]

Do you have a link for the long-range Euro model? At 11 days out, the GFS has proven time and time again to be anything but reliable. I'd like to see this consistency between the two.

[GeneratorPower]

Those maps are for 1/23 which is 11 days out. We all know how reliable those are. Eventually, the long-rage GFS will be right. May not be this month, this year, or this decade.

Even a blind hog finds an acorn now and again.

[Portastorm]

Do you have a link for the long-range Euro model? At 11 days out, the GFS has proven time and time again to be anything but reliable. I'd like to see this consistency between the two.

No, I don't.


I'm accessing the same free datasets that everyone else has access to and noticing the trends ... and, I'm also picking up some of this from other weather boards and what some pro mets are saying they are seeing from their paid subscriptions and access to the datasets.