Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Yukon Cornelius]

Despite the feeling that this winter is going to be a giant bust, we are picking up freezes almost daily which is nice.

[Brent]

Despite the feeling that this winter is going to be a giant bust, we are picking up freezes almost daily which is nice.

Yeah considering all the talk about a torch and how warm it is it's really not that bad. I mean y'all had true torches in December before(remember the Christmas tornado in DFW?) When it was 80 degrees 2 years ago?

Or maybe just after the horrendous summer we had it just seems not bad my concern is still the lack of rainfalll

[Yukon Cornelius]

Despite the feeling that this winter is going to be a giant bust, we are picking up freezes almost daily which is nice.

Yeah considering all the talk about a torch and how warm it is it's really not that bad

Or maybe just after the horrendous summer we had it just seems not bad my concern is still the lack of rainfalll

Agreed. Plus, anytime they hype a season up for “much above average precip and cooler temps” it usually turns out the opposite. Maybe this winter will be different but I’m not really seeing it.

[HockeyTx82]

Despite the feeling that this winter is going to be a giant bust, we are picking up freezes almost daily which is nice.

Yeah considering all the talk about a torch and how warm it is it's really not that bad

Or maybe just after the horrendous summer we had it just seems not bad my concern is still the lack of rainfalll

Agreed. Plus, anytime they hype a season up for “much above average precip and cooler temps” it usually turns out the opposite. Maybe this winter will be different but I’m not really seeing it.

Let's just Winter Cancel and rename the thread Texas "Winter" Spring 2023-2024

[snowballzzz]

Despite the feeling that this winter is going to be a giant bust, we are picking up freezes almost daily which is nice.

Yeah considering all the talk about a torch and how warm it is it's really not that bad. I mean y'all had true torches in December before(remember the Christmas tornado in DFW?) When it was 80 degrees 2 years ago?

Or maybe just after the horrendous summer we had it just seems not bad my concern is still the lack of rainfalll

Wouldn't surprise me if we have another very warm Christmas in North Texas. That seems to have been the theme of the last several years and there seems to be no sign on any sort of cold air into the southern half of the US until the New Year. The CFS is showing a brief cold air intrusion on 12/31 but until then, we likely torch.

[Stratton23]

Lets hit the brakes folks, winter literally just started, we got along ways to go, saying winters over when it just starting is ridiculous , a mild stretch of weather in december means absolutely nothing for the months ahead, we will get cold, we will have at least a few opportunities for wintry precip, just relax lol

[CaptinCrunch]

This warm up isn't going to be the type of torch we have seen many times in the past. Sure we will be 5-7 above average in temps but we are not going to be in the 80's and this won't be a prolonged period. upper 60s to a mid 70 here and there isn't bad. Long as well get cloud cover from passing systems and the chances of precip we are doing well. In fact the whole premiss of a cooler/wetter winter is directly the result of prolong periods of cloud cover, increased precip chances, which relates to cooler Winter over all.

There have been many forecast for this winter tossed out as to an increased chance of snowfall in the lower 48, and I still believe this to be true, but not till we get into late December thru early March.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Lets hit the brakes folks, winter literally just started, we got along ways to go, saying winters over when it just starting is ridiculous , a mild stretch of weather in december means absolutely nothing for the months ahead, we will get cold, we will have at least a few opportunities for wintry precip, just relax lol

We usually cancel winter numerous times a season around here. It’s kind of a storm2k winter thread tradition. If it’s not constantly cool/cold with snow, winter is cancelled.

[snowballzzz]

End of the 12z GFS back to hinting at a cold shot down the middle of the country around 12/21, rather than the torch from prior few runs.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Torch and Polar Vortex are used waaaaaay too much these days in the general population.

I blame social media and society being an emotional creature instead of a logical one these days.

A torch is not coming. Never was coming.

[Iceresistance]

End of the 12z GFS back to hinting at a cold shot down the middle of the country around 12/21, rather than the torch from prior few runs.

This is the run FYI

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/SixGS.gif


https://s5.gifyu.com/images/SixGb.gif

[Iceresistance]

GEFS weakens the "Torch" but strengthens the cold pool in Alaska with a +EPO

When is the cold being launched here is the question, its not if, but when. Christmas or New Years?

[Lagreeneyes03]

End of the 12z GFS back to hinting at a cold shot down the middle of the country around 12/21, rather than the torch from prior few runs.

Larry Cosgrove mentioned this in his weekly FB blog post.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

End of the 12z GFS back to hinting at a cold shot down the middle of the country around 12/21, rather than the torch from prior few runs.

Larry Cosgrove mentioned this in his weekly FB blog post.

Yep, pay attention to Cosgrove, Euler, Caron…. People who have the latest tools at their disposal with a mix of old school forecasting.

The AI forecasting modeling has been surprisingly accurate. It’s advertising a shot of cold just in time for Christmas.

From Sunday the 10th to the 18th, I get no lower than 35 and no higher than 65. Looks like an average Winter stretch for me, and certainly not a torch.

I live south of I-10 in Colorado County.

[Itryatgolf]

As yall know, the euro weeklies run every day now. They are showing a pattern shift end of this month but I think that will be determined by mjo progress. If the mjo is slow through the warm phases, 4-6, it will be a while before it gets cold here. We need just enough cold air and precipitation. That's always the theme around here

[Stratton23]

Gotta watch time frame of 14-16th next week, ensembles show a system approaching from west texas with some potential cold air to work with, the EPS guidance is especially aggressive

[tolakram]

Thunder sleet/hail/something. 15 minutes of un-forecast chaos. Figured I'd just leave this in the Texas winter thread.

Northern KY

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Gotta watch time frame of 14-16th next week, ensembles show a system approaching from west texas with some potential cold air to work with, the EPS guidance is especially aggressive

My forecast is for upper 30s to mid 50s and rain for that time period so I could definitely see someone up in north or west central Texas getting lucky.

[Texas Snowman]

Lets hit the brakes folks, winter literally just started, we got along ways to go, saying winters over when it just starting is ridiculous , a mild stretch of weather in december means absolutely nothing for the months ahead, we will get cold, we will have at least a few opportunities for wintry precip, just relax lol

We usually cancel winter numerous times a season around here. It’s kind of a storm2k winter thread tradition. If it’s not constantly cool/cold with snow, winter is cancelled.

Yeah, but “Winter Cancel” talk only a few days into meteorological winter…on December 5th?!? I’ll have to reread the rules, but isn’t that grounds for a suspension until spring? (Just kidding, of course!)

Besides, if we hand Heat Miser a win in the first week of the season, what else is there? And never forget, February 2021…

[HockeyTx82]

Lets hit the brakes folks, winter literally just started, we got along ways to go, saying winters over when it just starting is ridiculous , a mild stretch of weather in december means absolutely nothing for the months ahead, we will get cold, we will have at least a few opportunities for wintry precip, just relax lol

We usually cancel winter numerous times a season around here. It’s kind of a storm2k winter thread tradition. If it’s not constantly cool/cold with snow, winter is cancelled.

Yeah, but “Winter Cancel” talk only a few days into meteorological winter…on December 5th?!? I’ll have to reread the rules, but isn’t that grounds for a suspension until spring? (Just kidding, of course!)

Besides, if we hand Heat Miser a win in the first week of the season, what else is there? And never forget, February 2021…

Well, someone had to do it, sorry.......