2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

[srainhoutx]

Several Texas-based NWSFOs this morning are talking now re: next weekend's potential Arctic outbreak.

NWSFO Amarillo says: "MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POSSIBLE COLD AIR INTRUSION NEXT WEEKEND."

NWSFO Lubbock says: "MODELS ARE ALSO STARTING TO HINT AT A VERY STRONG DUMP OF COLD AIR BEYOND
THE END OF THE FORECAST THAT BEARS WATCHING."

Looking at some the other AFD's in surrounding states, I suspect many more local WFO's to start chiming in. wxman57 had some "interesting" comments this morning in the "local Forum".

[Portastorm]

Several Texas-based NWSFOs this morning are talking now re: next weekend's potential Arctic outbreak.

NWSFO Amarillo says: "MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POSSIBLE COLD AIR INTRUSION NEXT WEEKEND."

NWSFO Lubbock says: "MODELS ARE ALSO STARTING TO HINT AT A VERY STRONG DUMP OF COLD AIR BEYOND
THE END OF THE FORECAST THAT BEARS WATCHING."

Looking at some the other AFD's in surrounding states, I suspect many more local WFO's to start chiming in. wxman57 had some "interesting" comments this morning in the "local Forum".

Yes, I did see his comments a little bit ago. Interesting indeed! He is never one to hype and always backs up his reasoning with logic and fact. Between him and Jeff Lindner, seems like the cold is coming. Question is HOW cold and will we have precip with it? I hope we can get a few more of our pros to chime in, like the venerable Air Force Met and WallCloud.

[cheezyWXguy]

Several Texas-based NWSFOs this morning are talking now re: next weekend's potential Arctic outbreak.

NWSFO Amarillo says: "MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POSSIBLE COLD AIR INTRUSION NEXT WEEKEND."

NWSFO Lubbock says: "MODELS ARE ALSO STARTING TO HINT AT A VERY STRONG DUMP OF COLD AIR BEYOND
THE END OF THE FORECAST THAT BEARS WATCHING."

Looking at some the other AFD's in surrounding states, I suspect many more local WFO's to start chiming in. wxman57 had some "interesting" comments this morning in the "local Forum".

Yes, I did see his comments a little bit ago. Interesting indeed! He is never one to hype and always backs up his reasoning with logic and fact. Between him and Jeff Lindner, seems like the cold is coming. Question is HOW cold and will we have precip with it? I hope we can get a few more of our pros to chime in, like the venerable Air Force Met and WallCloud.

Could yall post his thoughts?

[Portastorm]

I'll try Cheezy ... below is reprinted WITHOUT permission of the KHOU Weather Forum or of the S2K mods. If I violated a rule, I'm sure our fine mods will take care of my post. Wxman57's post is below in blue type.

****
I would say that the 00Z GFS might show a hint of what's to come aloft, but it still appears lost at the surface. I really don't expect it to catch on until 24-48 hours prior to the arrival of the cold air. And even then, it'll probably be too slow and too warm with its predictions.

I notice the 00Z GFS and ECMWF agree on the 500mb pattern valid 6pm on the 16th:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/test8.gif

Again, classic cross-Polar flow pattern with the leading edge of Arctic air already in Texas and maybe not far to our north. With southwest flow aloft, this is the type of pattern that would lay down a snow pack as it moves south through the Plains. Could get "interesting" across the Gulf Coast with this type of flow pattern, but I'm not making any predictions of a coastal snow/ice event yet.

[double D]

Game on! At least according to San Angelo NWS.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE SOME TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN
IN MAINTAINING A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH A TRANSITION TO A ZONAL AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SOLUTION HAS SUPPORT FROM THE
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE. THE GFS BREAKS THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN DOWN
TOO QUICKLY AND EVEN DIGS SOME ENERGY DOWN INTO THE SOUTHWEST ON
FRIDAY...WHICH IS NOT SHOWN BY ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS.
THEREFORE...THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY WILL FOLLOW THE
ECMWF SOLUTION AND WILL THUS BE WARMER AND DRIER THAN MEX GUIDANCE.
THE MAIN CAVEAT FOR SUNDAY`S OTHERWISE MILD HIGH TEMPS WILL BE THE
INTRUSION OF SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR SOUTH THRU THE CENTRAL AND INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THIS TIME. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE FCST AREA ON SUNDAY BUT THIS IS
VERY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT AT DAYS 1-2 MUCH LESS DAY 7. SO WILL
TAPER TEMPS OFF IN THE NORTH IN CASE THE FRONT MAKES MORE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS.

THE 8 TO 10 DAY FORECAST LOOKS QUITE INTERESTING WITH THE SHALLOW
ARCTIC AIR WEDGING SOUTH BENEATH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE ARCTIC AIR
JUST OFF TO OUR NORTH...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE. STAY TUNED.

[Portastorm]

I posted this in the "Cold on the way" thread but will double post here as well.

The 12z Euro, 850mb map, at 7 days ... all I have to say is "thar she blows!!"

[double D]

Yeah Portastorm, that's pretty impressive. It also looks like that cold air is making a bee line right into Texas.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Surface temp on GFS prog for IAH supposed to drop from about 4ºC to 2ºC during the prior 12 hours while 0.11 inches liquid is falling, even as 850 mb temps hang around 8ºC. If the cold air gets a little farther South, this could be a school cancelling event in HOU. Need to be 5 or 6ºF cooler, and I think a hundredth per hour average precip rate may not quite get the ice to stick on anything, but it is a step in the right direction.



Ok, still beyond the 180 hour lobotomy, but it does show a shallow airmass being driven by a ballpark 1040 mb high.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is the latest from wxman57...

I've been looking at the available data to try and figure out what might happen down here next week. The GFS and ECMWF are in different camps. The GFS is making one of its most classic errors in developing a leeside low in Colorado this weekend and driving the Arctic air north from OK into northern KS and Nebraska on Sun/Mon. The ECMWF keeps pushing the Arctic air south, passing south of Dallas by 6pm Sunday.

I think we can discount the GFS's "warm front" idea, as it's always wrong with such shallow Arctic airmasses. So if the ECMWF is right, then the front may be knocking on our door by sunrise Monday, Dec. 15th. I think the ETA of Monday morning on the Gulf coast is looking good. Now, what can we expect post-frontal? Both the ECMWF and GFS show SW flow aloft on Monday with the trof axis well to our west In fact, the EC has the trof axis to our west through Wednesday, but with the axis on the move Wednesday night .

Next question would be what type of air is forecast to come down? Both GFS and ECMWF are forecasting 850mb temps into the 30-32C range across Montana, Wyoming and the Dakotas. Surface temps across Montana/Wyoming in the -20 to -30F range A very sharp gradient from 10C to 0C along the front in NE TX Sunday night. So once the front moves down to the coast on Monday, at least the Dallas area may be well below freezing at the surface and aloft (to 850mb). With SW flow aloft and disturbances rotating through the area, this is a good setup for freezing/frozen precip across TX/OK/AR and northern LA at the very least. How far south the freezing/frozen precip gets is a big question this far out. Timing, type and amounts are the question farther north (Dallas area, for example). It's possible that the Dallas area remains below freezing from Sunday night through the following Thursday.

Down on the coast, we could see temps falling into the 30s Monday afternoon/evening and hovering in the mid 30s for highs Tuesday-Wednesday. Can't tell if our area will see much below freezing temps with the thick clouds and lack of a snow pack to the north. And since we can't tell that, we can't tell if there will be a significant threat of freezing/frozen precip down to the Houston (Gulf Coast) area. Can't rule that out, though.

Note that any really cold temps (mid 20s or lower) are not likely early next week with the initial surge, as there will be too much post-frontal clouds/moisture. Once the trof axis moves on through late in the week (Thursday?), there is the potential for a very hard freeze here.

WOW! That looks pretty exciting for north Texas and Oklahoma! Might get interesting as far south as Houston too.

[wxman57]

You beat me here, EWG. Was just about to post the above.

[gboudx]

Dallas below freezing for 3-4 days? Man, I hope we don't get any freezing rain or sleet with that. Driving around here next week may be a nightmare if that happens.

[zaqxsw75050]

A little snow would be nice though

[Extremeweatherguy]

You beat me here, EWG. Was just about to post the above.

Sorry, wxman57. I wasn't sure if you were going to come over here, so I decided to go ahead and post your discussion for you.

[wxman57]

Dallas below freezing for 3-4 days? Man, I hope we don't get any freezing rain or sleet with that. Driving around here next week may be a nightmare if that happens.

I'd say that's a possibility at this point. It's not what I would put out as my forecast - yet.

[Ed Mahmoud]

You beat me here, EWG. Was just about to post the above.

Winter weather disasters are so much more fun than tropical cyclones, as long as one doesn't have to drive in it.


Barring a Montreal style ice storm of several days duration, wherein we all sit in the dark wearing coats and blankets.


But the food will stay cold if left in the back yard, and unlike Ike, once sleeping in nothing but boxers on top of sweat soaked sheets in a nearly airless room is as far as one can get, one can always wear more coats and wrap in more blankets.

Of course, if the pipes explode, that can get expensive...


But we're not in Quebec, even a monster ice storm is probably followed by a nice warm up within a couple of days!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Nobody ever worried about bursting pipes when I was a young'un living in New York. When I was stationed upstate New York, below zero (farenheit) weather was common, and pipes never burst.



Just need better building codes, as long as nothing separates Texas from Siberia but a snow pack and barb wire fences.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

From JB this morning


Worried about California citrus this week and maybe a frost in the RGV. Next week at this time we have 60 degree spread across the state due to the front.

[jasons2k]

Winter weather disasters are so much more fun than tropical cyclones, as long as one doesn't have to drive in it.

Barring a Montreal style ice storm of several days duration, wherein we all sit in the dark wearing coats and blankets.

But the food will stay cold if left in the back yard, and unlike Ike, once sleeping in nothing but boxers on top of sweat soaked sheets in a nearly airless room is as far as one can get, one can always wear more coats and wrap in more blankets.

Of course, if the pipes explode, that can get expensive...

But we're not in Quebec, even a monster ice storm is probably followed by a nice warm up within a couple of days!

I used to feel the same way but then two things changed that for me:
1) I was in Birmingham, AL for the 1993 superstorm. Sleeping in front of a fire in a sleeping bag was fun for a night or two, but 7 days without power in the cold gets pretty old. And the tree loss from the snow was comparable to what we saw in Houston after Ike.
2) I moved from Dallas to Houston and now I have a backyard full of tropicals. I'd rather not lose them...The cold up in Dallas/Plano/Frisco was always fun because it meant a day home from school/work and gardening-wise, you don't have much to worry about when all you have are two builder-special sticks planted in the front yard. But here, when you have several zone-10 palms, hibiscus, boganvillea, banana, mandevilla, and an orange tree in the yard, well that changes the equation a bit...

[Big O]

Here is the latest from wxman57...

I've been looking at the available data to try and figure out what might happen down here next week. The GFS and ECMWF are in different camps. The GFS is making one of its most classic errors in developing a leeside low in Colorado this weekend and driving the Arctic air north from OK into northern KS and Nebraska on Sun/Mon. The ECMWF keeps pushing the Arctic air south, passing south of Dallas by 6pm Sunday.

I think we can discount the GFS's "warm front" idea, as it's always wrong with such shallow Arctic airmasses. So if the ECMWF is right, then the front may be knocking on our door by sunrise Monday, Dec. 15th. I think the ETA of Monday morning on the Gulf coast is looking good. Now, what can we expect post-frontal? Both the ECMWF and GFS show SW flow aloft on Monday with the trof axis well to our west In fact, the EC has the trof axis to our west through Wednesday, but with the axis on the move Wednesday night .

Next question would be what type of air is forecast to come down? Both GFS and ECMWF are forecasting 850mb temps into the 30-32C range across Montana, Wyoming and the Dakotas. Surface temps across Montana/Wyoming in the -20 to -30F range A very sharp gradient from 10C to 0C along the front in NE TX Sunday night. So once the front moves down to the coast on Monday, at least the Dallas area may be well below freezing at the surface and aloft (to 850mb). With SW flow aloft and disturbances rotating through the area, this is a good setup for freezing/frozen precip across TX/OK/AR and northern LA at the very least. How far south the freezing/frozen precip gets is a big question this far out. Timing, type and amounts are the question farther north (Dallas area, for example). It's possible that the Dallas area remains below freezing from Sunday night through the following Thursday.

Down on the coast, we could see temps falling into the 30s Monday afternoon/evening and hovering in the mid 30s for highs Tuesday-Wednesday. Can't tell if our area will see much below freezing temps with the thick clouds and lack of a snow pack to the north. And since we can't tell that, we can't tell if there will be a significant threat of freezing/frozen precip down to the Houston (Gulf Coast) area. Can't rule that out, though.

Note that any really cold temps (mid 20s or lower) are not likely early next week with the initial surge, as there will be too much post-frontal clouds/moisture. Once the trof axis moves on through late in the week (Thursday?), there is the potential for a very hard freeze here.

WOW! That looks pretty exciting for north Texas and Oklahoma! Might get interesting as far south as Houston too.

Question. When wxman57 says Dallas may stay below freezing from Sunday night through Thursday, is he referring to Sunday 12/14 through Thursday 12/18 or is it the week after that?

I will be at the Cowboys-Giants game in Dallas Sunday night. Any chance for wintry precip. for 12/14 (night) through 12/15 (morning)? Would be happy with a 'Boys win or wintry precip, but would be ecstatic to get both.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think next weekend is a tad too soon...