Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Ntxw]

CONUS disk. Our storm is making it's way down the Great Basin.

[Ntxw]

Wow this is a depressing chart and even the best case (they call it worst case scenario) for most of us isn’t what we hope for or what many scenarios show for a dream scenario. A lot can change but they ain’t buying it currently

https://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/graphicast/image2.jpg

The worst case scenario is 2 inches for Dallas? I don't want to bash but what???

Statistical forecast I would bet. I miss the days of Dennis Cavanaugh...I mean pasting MOS outputs would give us just as good forecast just saying.

[Brent]

Wow this is a depressing chart and even the best case (they call it worst case scenario) for most of us isn’t what we hope for or what many scenarios show for a dream scenario. A lot can change but they ain’t buying it currently

https://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/graphicast/image2.jpg

The worst case scenario is 2 inches for Dallas? I don't want to bash but what???

Statistical forecast I would bet. I miss the days of Dennis Cavanaugh...I mean pasting MOS outputs would give us just as good forecast just saying.

It's almost like those apps that use the gfs straight up lol they've been saying mostly rain on Sunday all week

[Haris]

Snowiest run for Austin in days lol

[txtwister78]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/HgbYNQb/77637-C1-C-A68-D-4-C10-B30-A-C1-EABF58687-E.png [/url]

Snowiest run for Austin in days lol

Another nudge south a bit on the 18z Euro. SREF probabilities shifted a little west and south as well on the latest update. Trend? Still lots to watch

If this trend continues wouldn't surprise me to see EWX add some additional counties to their Winter Storm Watch

[WinterMax]

CONUS disk. Our storm is making it's way down the Great Basin.

https://i.imgur.com/ZUSa4LD.gif

For any of the pro mets or experts, I'm going on a 2 day get away tomorrow from South Louisiana to chase snow, I'd like to keep the trip within 4 or 5 hours.

My thoughts are Center Tx, Jacksonville Tx, or Tyler Tx. Would you say that any of these 3 locations are close to the crosshairs of a good dump of snow?

Thanks in advance.

[gboudx]

Pete Delkus not forecasting much snow for DFW. Especially my side of the metroplex. I’m still not expecting anything until I see it falling. That’s not fun but sadly it’s the option that keeps me the most sane.

[fendie]

Slight southern and northern boundary expansion on the 21Z SREF for probability of 1+” accumulations.

15Z:



21Z:

[Ntxw]

CONUS disk. Our storm is making it's way down the Great Basin.

https://i.imgur.com/ZUSa4LD.gif

For any of the pro mets or experts, I'm going on a 2 day get away tomorrow from South Louisiana to chase snow, I'd like to keep the trip within 4 or 5 hours.

My thoughts are Center Tx, Jacksonville Tx, or Tyler Tx. Would you say that any of these 3 locations are close to the crosshairs of a good dump of snow?

Thanks in advance.

Of those three locations Jacksonville would make the most sense to me. However as with any chase you must be prepared to take some last minute adjustments a county or two just in case.

Now if you want bonafide snow for sure and can do the drive, definitely further west especially southwest of DFW in the triangle of Abilene-Brownwood-Stephenville.

[Brent]

Pete Delkus not forecasting much snow for DFW. Especially my side of the metroplex. I’m still not expecting anything until I see it falling. That’s not fun but sadly it’s the option that keeps me the most sane.

That's pretty sad considering he's a bit of weenie lol

[Cerlin]

I feel like some of these global models are underestimating the cold temperatures we’re likely to see. Euro has some snow that then transitions to rain and if that were to be heavy banding like the HRRR/RAP/SREF/NAM is showing, I see no reason that it would transition back to rain. The heavier it is, the likelier it is that temps stay down.

[Ralph's Weather]

CONUS disk. Our storm is making it's way down the Great Basin.

https://i.imgur.com/ZUSa4LD.gif

For any of the pro mets or experts, I'm going on a 2 day get away tomorrow from South Louisiana to chase snow, I'd like to keep the trip within 4 or 5 hours.

My thoughts are Center Tx, Jacksonville Tx, or Tyler Tx. Would you say that any of these 3 locations are close to the crosshairs of a good dump of snow?

Thanks in advance.

I'm near Tyler and have family in Center so been paying a lot of attention to both. I would say Jacksonville is in the best spot of those three.

[WinterMax]

CONUS disk. Our storm is making it's way down the Great Basin.

https://i.imgur.com/ZUSa4LD.gif

For any of the pro mets or experts, I'm going on a 2 day get away tomorrow from South Louisiana to chase snow, I'd like to keep the trip within 4 or 5 hours.

My thoughts are Center Tx, Jacksonville Tx, or Tyler Tx. Would you say that any of these 3 locations are close to the crosshairs of a good dump of snow?

Thanks in advance.

Of those three locations Jacksonville would make the most sense to me. However as with any chase you must be prepared to take some last minute adjustments a county or two just in case.

Now if you want bonafide snow for sure and can do the drive, definitely further west especially southwest of DFW in the triangle of Abilene-Brownwood-Stephenville.

Thank you, Jacksonville was my 1st choice for other reasons. I will have to make quick hotel reservations in the morning (I have reward points), so last minute adjustments are not an option, I don't think.

2 or 3 inches would be okay with me. I like that smooth look, where all the grass is completely covered, lol

I will gave 1 more look with my coffee in the morning, make my decision, the wife and I will hop in the car and go

[WinterMax]

CONUS disk. Our storm is making it's way down the Great Basin.

https://i.imgur.com/ZUSa4LD.gif

For any of the pro mets or experts, I'm going on a 2 day get away tomorrow from South Louisiana to chase snow, I'd like to keep the trip within 4 or 5 hours.

My thoughts are Center Tx, Jacksonville Tx, or Tyler Tx. Would you say that any of these 3 locations are close to the crosshairs of a good dump of snow?

Thanks in advance.

I'm near Tyler and have family in Center so been paying a lot of attention to both. I would say Jacksonville is in the best spot of those three.

Thanks Ralf !!

[Ntxw]

Here comes the start of the 0z runs. It's likely the last significant milestone before we simply nowcast as the first waves of precip forms over the panhandle late tomorrow.

[Cerlin]

Going to be paying special attention to the HRRR, NAM 3k, and NAM 12k. HRRR is getting into it’s good range, if it continues to show a north solution (I anticipate it to be further south) that’s a good signal for everyone with QPF. NAM 3k and NAM 12k likely won’t shift but if they maintain their 18z counterparts, it’ll be a likely win for all.

[orangeblood]

Going to be paying special attention to the HRRR, NAM 3k, and NAM 12k. HRRR is getting into it’s good range, if it continues to show a north solution (I anticipate it to be further south) that’s a good signal for everyone with QPF. NAM 3k and NAM 12k likely won’t shift but if they maintain their 18z counterparts, it’ll be a likely win for all.

Hi Res short range models aren’t budging...HRRR adamant about a further north solution

[Ntxw]

Going to be paying special attention to the HRRR, NAM 3k, and NAM 12k. HRRR is getting into it’s good range, if it continues to show a north solution (I anticipate it to be further south) that’s a good signal for everyone with QPF. NAM 3k and NAM 12k likely won’t shift but if they maintain their 18z counterparts, it’ll be a likely win for all.

Hi Res short range models aren’t budging...HRRR adamant about a further north solution

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/total_snow_10to1/1610150400/1610305200-8blUsszs7QQ.png

Comparing apples to apples (18z) its slower than the prior run.

[bubba hotep]

00z HRRR is Juiced!

[Captmorg70]

Going to be paying special attention to the HRRR, NAM 3k, and NAM 12k. HRRR is getting into it’s good range, if it continues to show a north solution (I anticipate it to be further south) that’s a good signal for everyone with QPF. NAM 3k and NAM 12k likely won’t shift but if they maintain their 18z counterparts, it’ll be a likely win for all.

Hi Res short range models aren’t budging...HRRR adamant about a further north solution

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/total_snow_10to1/1610150400/1610305200-8blUsszs7QQ.png

Comparing apples to apples (18z) its slower than the prior run.

The surface temps looks a degree or 2 warmer Sunday morning in the Metro as well. Need to find a 18z to verify though.

[imgur] https://imgur.com/a/IiGD62D[/imgur]

This was 18z run. A little faster and quicker change over to winter precipitation.

^^^ sorry I’m struggling with posting the image. Hopefully the link works.