SE TX/SW LA Winter WX - 2011-2012

[JenBayles]

I don't see squat on radar over Wharton & Ft. Bend counties. ??

[JenBayles]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
325 PM CST THU FEB 3 2011

.DISCUSSION...
THE ICE PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS ALREADY UNFOLDING
WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET OCCURRING OVER GALVESTON AND CHAMBERS
COUNTIES. KHGX RADAR SHOWS SOME MODERATE RETURNS IN CHAMBERS
COUNTY. TEMPERATURES ARE 29 TO 32 IN THIS AREA. GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND THE 18Z NAM SHOW SOME WARMING NEAR THE 850 MB LAYER
OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. WILL CALL FREEZING
RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET EAST OF A LINE FROM SARGENT TO DOWNTOWN
HOUSTON TO LIVINGSTON THROUGH 06Z. EXCEPT OVER GALVESTON AND
CHAMBERS COUNTIES...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...BUT SOME
PATCHES OF ICE COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ON BRIDGES/OVERPASSES.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WILL SHIFT THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT TO A SARGENT
TO LEAGUE CITY TO LIBERTY LINE AND EASTWARD. FURTHER WEST...EXPECTING
ALL SNOW WEST OF A LINE FROM EAGLE LAKE TO SEALY TO HUNTSVILLE TO
CROCKETT...WITH A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW EAST OF THAT LINE FOR THE
DURATION OF THE EVENT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW STILL BACK OVER THE BIG
BEND REGION THIS AFTN. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY LIFT EAST
TONIGHT/THURSDAY WITH LIFT INCREASING AND UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE
DIFFLUENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT THE AIRMASS DOES NOT BECOME FULLY SATURATED OVER MOST OF THE
CWA UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH THE BEST SATURATION (UP TO THE
-8 TO -10C LEVEL) FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT TO MID MORNING FRIDAY. THIS
IS WHEN THE MAIN PRECIP EVENT WILL TAKE PLACE. THINKING SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...WITH ICE
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST OF 1/10 TO POSSIBLY 1/4 INCH.
FRONTOGENESIS TAKES PLACE IN THE 850 MB LAYER WHICH COULD HELP
RESULT IN SOME BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL...WITH ISOLATED
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES. THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR
OVER THE NW HALF OF THE AREA BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDER
OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST BUT ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS. EVEN IF
AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW...THE VERY COLD SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S WILL MEAN
MAJOR PROBLEMS ON THE ROADWAYS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.
SOMETIMES THE SMALLER SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS CAN TURN INTO A
GLAZE ON ROADWAYS AS THIS FORECASTER EXPERIENCED ONCE WHILE LIVING
IN OKLAHOMA. IN ADDITION TO THE ICY ROADS...WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.

THE PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE LIFT SHIFTS
EAST OF THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THE
PRECIP. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW ZONES BY MIDDAY
AND AREA WIDE BY LATE AFTN. ENOUGH CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR TO ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS FRI AFTN. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT EARLY FRI EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING SNOW/SLEET
COVER WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER HARD FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD
END UP BEING THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE EVENT. REFREEZING IS LIKELY
ON ROADWAYS WITH POSSIBILITY OF BLACK ICE FORMING ON
BRIDGES/OVERPASSES. TEMPS WILL FINALLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING LATE
MORNING SATURDAY. SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S SATURDAY AFTN. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL
WITH A LIGHT FREEZE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

TOOK A GOOD LOOK AT THE DAYS 4-7 FORECAST THIS AFTN. THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN ON PREVIOUS DAYS WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTS NEXT WEEK. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
WITH TEMPS AT LEAST CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMALS. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A CONTINUATION
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO
DRY FOR PRECIP WITH THIS FROPA. FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
NORTHERN HALF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOST INLAND AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.
WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH WITH A LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL IN WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS TUE
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH WARMER FOR
WEDNESDAY...NOW THE WARMEST DAY...SO WINTRY PRECIP NO LONGER
APPEARS TO BE A THREAT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. TEMPS ALOFT ARE ACTUALLY COLDER BEHIND THIS
FRONT THAN THE CURRENT AIRMASS...SO A HARD FREEZE APPEARS POSSIBLE
AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

[southerngale]

Now a steady rain with sleet in Beaumont (north of I-10)

I've gotten a mix of rain and sleet here. Was just out and windshield wipers were icing up. It's probably time to get somewhere and stay. The roads are pretty wet just west of Beaumont and the temp had risen to 32° but is now back down to 31°. I'm so close to the "magic line" where they're predicting more ice than snow or more snow than ice, I really don't know what to expect. I'm just gonna watch it all unfold... no point in trying to figure it out now. With lows in the mid-20s expected, the roads are likely going to be bad.


Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1211 PM CST THU FEB 3 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING...

.AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES AND TOWARD THE REGION...MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WARM MOIST AIR
WILL OVER-RIDE A VERY COLD CONTINENTAL AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE.
THIS WILL HELP PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO THE POSSIBLE DURATION AND
INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION...SIGNIFICANT SLEET AND ICE
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF A
BEAUMONT TO LAKE CHARLES TO LAFAYETTE LINE.

LAZ027>033-041>045-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-040215-
/O.CON.KLCH.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110204T1800Z/
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-
JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...WOODVILLE...
JASPER...NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
1211 PM CST THU FEB 3 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY.

A MIXTURE OF RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATION OF ICE...SLEET AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY
ON ELEVATED SURFACES.

STORM TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ALEXANDRIA TO SILSBEE.

STORM TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS ALONG A LINE FROM ROUGHLY LAFAYETTE
TO LAKE CHARLES TO BEAUMONT...AND NORTHWEST TO ALEXANDRIA TO
SILSBEE...WILL AROUND 1/4 OF AN INCH...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY...ENDING FROM WEST-TO-EAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY
HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. ALSO...ACCUMULATION OF SLEET OR ICE ON
TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES WILL BE POSSIBLE...CAUSING SOME POWER
OUTAGES.[/url]

[JenBayles]

BUST for Houston IMHO.

[southerngale]

BUST for Houston IMHO.

Latest update for Houston is:

Late Afternoon: A chance of snow and sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 34. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Total daytime snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Tonight: Snow and sleet. Low around 27. Wind chill values between 15 and 20. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Friday: Snow and sleet likely before noon. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 36. Wind chill values between 15 and 25. Northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.


It looks like the bulk of it is supposed to be tonight and in the morning. I'm assuming that more is supposed to develop later?

[BigB0882]

From the few events I've experienced in my life, watching the radar is like torture. If they are still forecasting 1-3 inches of snow in Houston then clearly more moisture is on the way! NWS updates its forecasts often and will make changes as needed, they wouldn't leave that on there is this was looking like a bust.

I have learned one thing from this, I must go buy an outdoor thermometer. I hate not knowing the temp IMBY.

[JenBayles]

I know that's what the NWS says, but this is what I'm seeing:

[PTrackerLA]

Skies have sure darkened in the area with sprinkles around and I think I see the signs of increasing precipitation offshore when viewed in composite mode. One things for sure is we will certainly be cold enough tonight. Weatherbug in Lafayette (Northside High) is showing 26.7 degrees right now after a high of 30 so any precipitation of consequence this evening and tonight should be all freezing rain. Time to head home and hunker down!

[vbhoutex]

BUST for Houston IMHO.

If you read surrounding discussions and understand that the main ingredients for this to happen in SE TX are all still in place, but not moving much yet-they have started-then you might change your mind. I am not about to bet the bank on it, but what I am seeing tells me it is still there, just coming in later than expected for most of us. Totals may be less than expected but we should still see enough snow for accumulations. In all honesty I have seen two mets that do think it will be less than currently progged with one saying it won't happen. I don't agree with the last one, but the other one says it will happen but not as much as originally thought. To sum it up-it is all about timing.

[Nederlander]

Great.. I have to come in to work at 9:30 in the morning now instead of 8:30. I dont think thats going to make much difference to the ice on the road..

[JenBayles]

That dry slot on the WV imagery seems to be getting larger the closer it gets to SE TX. It also looks to be winning the tug-o-war with the moisture right along the coast. Not holding my breath for anything before midnight in west Harris county. But that's OK - surprise me!

[vbhoutex]

That dry slot on the WV imagery seems to be getting larger the closer it gets to SE TX. It also looks to be winning the tug-o-war with the moisture right along the coast. Not holding my breath for anything before midnight in west Harris county. But that's OK - surprise me!

Dry slot is the kicker here. It may be the buster too. Wasn't expecting that. Locals are still holding on. I am not so sure now with the new dry air coming in. Not giving up yet, but getting more cautious in my thinking. I've seen them cause a complete bust of a forecast and seen them go away quickly, so we shall see.

[ksstormhunter]

Just uploaded fresh new model output from Texas to Georgia. SmartModel having a tough time adjusting. A good scenario to improve my model. still picking up the FZRA up in N. MS and GA.

http://smartwxmodel.net

[Nederlander]

wow... bust of the year.. dry air heading east.. slim chance for anymore precip. in SE TX

[vbhoutex]

Latest from Jeff. He did bring his totals down in his last update.

Numerous reports now of freezing rain and sleet to our SW, numerous highway being closed from icing across S TX.

Radar is really starting to light up and clearly moisture advection off the Gulf if in progress. Freezing rain now noted as far NE as Port Aransas.

Expect things to rapidly begin to develop as strong lift is approaching the area from the W and SW.

[vbhoutex]

Currently 30.4 with VERY VERY light intermittent flurries here at the house. As I told Jeff in my text I was reluctant to report it, but I confirmed the moisture on my windshield. If nothing else the lower levels are definitely starting to moisten. I still expect the snow, but maybe not as much as was previously forecast. However with some of the reports coming in from S and W TX, I am not sure we should back off on the amounts.
Corpus Christi has closed all freeways due to icing per TXDOT and NWS.
Reports of light flurries sticking to windshields in the Hockley area of NW Houston.

[JenBayles]

Still nothing here in Bear Creek, David. Perhaps the Bear Creek Dome is in play?

My sandpaper skin tells me there isn't much moisture around either!

[PTrackerLA]

Update from Lake Charles NWS. Ice storm still on the way. Nam shows us under .25"-.50" of QPF which will be mostly freezing rain.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
910 PM CST THU FEB 3 2011

.UPDATE...NARROW BAND OF FREEZING RAINS...SOME SNOW OVER CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THUS FAR AT THE AIRPORT WITH THIS
LATEST FEATURE HAVE RECEIVED ONLY 0.05 INCHES. CARS HOWEVER ARE
IMPRESSIVELY COATED AND PLAN ON MAKING USE OF AN INTERN TO CLEAN
MINE.

LACK OF PRECIP IN THE WAKE OF THIS BAND HAS TRIGGERED NUMEROUS CALLS
FROM PERSONS LOOKING AT THE RADAR AND ASSUMING THE WORST IS
MOVING THROUGH. MODELS SUGGESTING THIS NOT TO BE THE CASE AS
INCREASING LIFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE WEST TEXAS LOW.

GRIDS LOOKS EXCELLENT AND ADVISORIES/WARNINGS SET UP WELL. NO
EVENING UPDATE PLANNED.

[JenBayles]

Oh man! The poor intern!

[vbhoutex]

Still nothing here in Bear Creek, David. Perhaps the Bear Creek Dome is in play?

My sandpaper skin tells me there isn't much moisture around either!

Your skin is deceiving you. I could tell the difference in the moisture when I went out. Still having very light flurries here last time I looked. Going out in a minute to check again. Numerous reports coming in on the local forum from all areas of the metro, especially W Houston.