Southern Plains winter wx thread (2008-2009)

[gboudx]

OK, it may be me wanting to get in on the action of a historic winter/spring snowstorm - perhaps the Southern Great Plains' version of the 1993 Super Storm - but it is almost starting to sound like DFW NWS is starting to lay some ground work for a forecast change this afternoon on snow accumulations.

It does look like the low is tracking south of what was expected and I would think that would have to eventually have ramifications on where/how much snow falls out of this.

It'll be a interesting afternoon AFD. They've already pulled the severe threat more westward than previously forecasted. I doubt we'll see any wintry precip down this way though. I hope you folks along the Red River get in on the action though.

Did you get hit from the supercell up there last night?

[srainhoutx]

OK, it may be me wanting to get in on the action of a historic winter/spring snowstorm - perhaps the Southern Great Plains' version of the 1993 Super Storm - but it is almost starting to sound like DFW NWS is starting to lay some ground work for a forecast change this afternoon on snow accumulations.

It does look like the low is tracking south of what was expected and I would think that would have to eventually have ramifications on where/how much snow falls out of this.

It'll be a interesting afternoon AFD. They've already pulled the severe threat more westward than previously forecasted. I doubt we'll see any wintry precip down this way though. I hope you folks along the Red River get in on the action though.

Did you get hit from the supercell up there last night?

Track has been the key with this storm for that past couple of days. I suspect that many WFO's in TX and OK are watching the UL track further ESE and will begin to ramp up watches and warnings a bit later. This is a very dynamic storm system and moving slower than progged.

[msstateguy83]

i could be wrong.. but from looking at the latest sat imagery this thing might surprize alot with heavyer snows being i-40 s instead of n as far south as this low is going this am.. i wouldnt be surprized at this rate to possibly atleast see light accums in dfw proper

[somethingfunny]

I'm giddy as a schoolgirl right now!

Even if Lucy lifts the football again, there's guaranteed to be legitimate snow just an hour or two away....you can bet I'll be snow chasing!

As far as I could tell the supercells were weakening as they came through Sherman/Denison. Hail up to golfball sized was reported although I didn't personally see anything bigger than a pea....sure was a good scare though, after that hit we took a few months ago.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I have a friend/co-worker who is big into MSU football and is active in a tailgating group called the Kiowa Cooks, from back before the political correctness made them change the football team name.

But the NCAA can't make BBQers change the name of their organization.


Anyway, I told a doubting co-worker from the Holliday-Kamay-Iowa Park Metro area I thought he'd see snow flakes before sundown tonight.

He doubts it.

I hope I am correct.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I want a new winter MCD. SPC has had the same one up since 8 am.

[Texas Snowman]

Did you get hit from the supercell up there last night?

Yep, we got hit by the supercell. It was a real scary event. As Somethingfunny indicated, fortunately, the storm began to weaken as it pulled into and through the Sherman/Denison area. That may have spared somebody from a tornado hit.

After spitting down a twister near Muenster, the storm seemed to really explode again as it moved into western Grayson County - big hail reports, consistent radar presentation of strong circulation, a pronounced hook echo, storm spotter reports of a "developing tornado," etc.

The hail core was very, very evident on the radar presentations. Northern Sherman eventually got pounded by marble to tennis ball sized hail (KXII storm chaser Doug Grace reported tennis ball sized hail at US Hwy. 82 & FM 1417 if memory serves correct).

The circulation core passed over one of the most highly populated and developed corridors in the county. Thankfully, nothing but hail and heavy rain fell from those clouds.

It was a good scare - sitting in a storm closet with my wife and kids and watching a very pronounced hook echo advance on your house is unnerving to say the least.

[msstateguy83]

when is the weather service gonna update things??
to me it sure seems like heavyer totals are gonna be further
south to, no sign yet of any extension of watches/warnings
quite surprized, or maybe they are gonna put it out with the
afternoon package

[msstateguy83]

i just took a look at the latest sat imagery again, this upper low seems to be taking on a se track, i wouldnt
be shocked at all to see everything taken southward in the afternoon forecast update, looking like this could
be more,more like a pretty serrious event with widespread blowing snow, hopefully we dont get that much here
in w.falls becouse i live in an apartment complex with a flat roof! but looking at the latest imagery i wouldnt
be shocked at a good size snowfall in my area =) been watching txdot cams out of amarillo, pretty amazing
white out conditions currently out there in spots.

[gboudx]

Did you get hit from the supercell up there last night?

Yep, we got hit by the supercell. It was a real scary event. As Somethingfunny indicated, fortunately, the storm began to weaken as it pulled into and through the Sherman/Denison area. That may have spared somebody from a tornado hit.

After spitting down a twister near Muenster, the storm seemed to really explode again as it moved into western Grayson County - big hail reports, consistent radar presentation of strong circulation, a pronounced hook echo, storm spotter reports of a "developing tornado," etc.

The hail core was very, very evident on the radar presentations. Northern Sherman eventually got pounded by marble to tennis ball sized hail (KXII storm chaser Doug Grace reported tennis ball sized hail at US Hwy. 82 & FM 1417 if memory serves correct).

The circulation core passed over one of the most highly populated and developed corridors in the county. Thankfully, nothing but hail and heavy rain fell from those clouds.

It was a good scare - sitting in a storm closet with my wife and kids and watching a very pronounced hook echo advance on your house is unnerving to say the least.

Good to hear y'all are safe. Looks like we're under a Tornado Watch now. Storms are blowing up south of 20/east of 35.

[msstateguy83]

down to 37 at my place in northern w.falls at this rate way the colder air is progressing
we might see a change over in this area around 3 or shortly after! =)

[Texas Snowman]

Good to hear y'all are safe. Looks like we're under a Tornado Watch now. Storms are blowing up south of 20/east of 35.

Thanks! Yep, radar is starting to light up, may be a very active afternoon and evening for NE Texas. Kind of looks to me to be more organized activity trying to ramp up this afternoon rather than the two super-cells of last night.

Maybe that will mean less of a tornado threat...hope so.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Remember, the goal here is to break the two day (one storm) snowfall record for Wichita, KS from January 1972.


15 inches. Both the GFS and WRF would seem to do that, but we have issues measuring snow in high wind and compaction issues to deal with.

[msstateguy83]

well the nws outa norman just updated the snow graphic at 2:13, shows about the same
iam surprized by what i see on the sat images but maybe iam missing something?
the upper low out to the west seems like it had been moving more se, which i thought
would bring the snow amounts further south??? i guess we will see in the next couple
hrs what happens!


edit: i heard rick mitchell though from koco talk awhile ago, he seemed still in doubt
for sure on amounts, said just dependings how hard its coming down, ie 1 in, hr or 2 inch
hr or what have you, and also depending on how the upper level temps are cooling on
how long the transition is going to take from rain to snow.. so i guess still alot of ?s
on for sure, guess we will see as this thing plays out...

[msstateguy83]

with all due respect to the nws could they possibly have this one wrong?
the zone forecast for here was changed to only a winter mix tonight,
little to no accums? down to 34 at my place 36 at sheppard afb...
the temps seem to be falling pretty good, from my prospective i
thought the low was tracking further south, or is it iam seeing things
wrong? well just came across they issued a winter weather advisory
1-3 inches possible for my area... i think its all the timing issue and how
hard it comes down. but hey i guess 3 inches is better then nothing
still be nice to have a little more on the ground in the am! =)

[Texas Snowman]

Is the NWS wrong? So far, no - check out this snippet from OKC NWS afternoon discussion:

REPORTS FROM BOISE CITY IN THE OK PANHANDLE OF DRIFTS UP TO THE
ROOFS OF SOME HOMES AND 5 FOOT DRIFTS IN KENTON. EXPECT SNOWFALL
RATES TO INCREASE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES
POSSIBLE. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE VERY
DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR THOSE ATTEMPTING TO TRAVEL.

But snow is a difficult thing to forecast in the Southern Plains, so the chance remains that snowfall will propagate south over night.

And remember - to even be contemplating any accumulating snow in the Red River Valley the last weekend of March is amazing in and of itself!

[Texas Snowman]

Oh to be in Amarillo - heavy snow and 21 degrees!

[msstateguy83]

i just saw that about boise city, dang! we have a moderate sleet that just
started here within the last 5 mins or so... yeah, i know they arnt gonna
be wrong, just not having a more enhanced watch or warn further south
was my point, but at the sametime i know its VERY hard to forecast winter
wx in this part, so it is understanding, i guess i just wanna see that 6 or 12
inch amount here lol but again i should be thankful for what i get i guess lol =)

[msstateguy83]

so anyone agree or just hopeing things might go further south? i'd almost bet whatever
on it that theres a 60% or greater of winter storm warn expanision seward by late
tonight or early tomm morning possibly as far e as i-35 from pauls valley to the marietta,ok
to gainesville,tx area and points west... just think its to close to the river not to effect
atleast the northern tear counties along the redriver, plus that low going further, further
southward track..

[msstateguy83]

i just saw on another fourm, which iam not an expert in soundings and such
but the oun sounding showed a pretty good layer of warm air above the surface which i know
what that means (harder transition to snow) they are saying they think totals
could be to sig high for the okc metro, the transition time might be much longer
to occur, bringing totals way down... just thought i would throw that in for what
it's worth... i dont know much about that area though or reading them but maybe
someone can explain who does or how long it might take for it to cool...