Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Iceresistance]

I don't think I have ever seen a Forecast with Below Zero Temperatures this far out!


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2022-12-13-6.37.05-PM.png

[harp]

You guys are depressing me with this no precip talk…

[Ntxw]

hung up?

The difference between the GFS and Euro OP, one is neutral -PNA euro and neutral +PNA GFS. +PNA most of the time slides the core of cold to the east coast and dry for us. These are options if you consider 'losing it' in model world.

Who do we think wins?

I am leaning Euro just because this will be dense cold air and it will push down which may influence the outcome by itself.

What is the trend on PNA of late? Does it appear to stay fairly neutral?

I would like slightly negative, but unfortunately we almost never get lucky to get that.

It's drastically different at 200hr surface maps. But really ridge, trough configuration between the two are not vastly different. Just tilted with the trough orientation. For now I wouldn't worry about that too much until the cold air is moving.

This 3 year Nina has tilted with -PNA beating forecasts. So if you are going by what's been occurring then the +PNA is being rushed. +PNA will happen though as we transition to Aleutian trough pattern after Christmas. Nino tendencies.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

hung up?

The difference between the GFS and Euro OP, one is neutral -PNA euro and neutral +PNA GFS. +PNA most of the time slides the core of cold to the east coast and dry for us. These are options if you consider 'losing it' in model world.

Who do we think wins?

I am leaning Euro just because this will be dense cold air and it will push down which may influence the outcome by itself.

What is the trend on PNA of late? Does it appear to stay fairly neutral?

I would like slightly negative, but unfortunately we almost never get lucky to get that.

Forecast is for it to be neutral to slightly positive

[Quixotic]

You guys are depressing me with this no precip talk…

Fear not, little one.

[jasons2k]

I don't think I have ever seen a Forecast with Below Zero Temperatures this far out!

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2022-12-13-6.37.05-PM.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2022-12-13-6.37.05-PM.png

I miss Braum's so much. They had good burgers too.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

You guys are depressing me with this no precip talk…

Don’t worry and stop hanging on model runs and show back up 3-4 days out. No one knows what precip is going to be like at this point.

Cold is coming and that’s far better than where we’ve been. Should be a fun 3 weeks

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I don't think I have ever seen a Forecast with Below Zero Temperatures this far out!

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2022-12-13-6.37.05-PM.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2022-12-13-6.37.05-PM.png

I miss Braum's so much. They had good burgers too.

Amen

[Quixotic]

“Get the cold here, then worry about the moisture.” - Some Dude Whose Name Starts With Q

[rwfromkansas]

SOI still negative today but higher than yesterday. Don’t want that spiking.

[Cpv17]

hung up?

The difference between the GFS and Euro OP, one is neutral -PNA euro and neutral +PNA GFS. +PNA most of the time slides the core of cold to the east coast and dry for us. These are options if you consider 'losing it' in model world.

Who do we think wins?

I am leaning Euro just because this will be dense cold air and it will push down which may influence the outcome by itself.

What is the trend on PNA of late? Does it appear to stay fairly neutral?

I would like slightly negative, but unfortunately we almost never get lucky to get that.

Yeah I agree. Slightly neutral is perfect for us.

[Texas Snowman]

And FWIW, it really hasn’t been sunny here more than a day over the last two months. Don’t know about y’all, but the heavy rains after two extended droughts has trashed my yard. There’s moss and toadstools in my yard.

I was just thinking the same thing, that the sun has been virtually nonexistent here for the past several weeks. We had over an inch of rain in Denison this morning, water was pouring down the slope in my backyard, and my yard is a swamp right now. All the area ponds are full and even overflowing.

Heck of a way to run a La Niña, huh?

[PTrackerLA]

Seems like the 1983 and 1989 outbreaks were quite dry so we should prepare ourselves for something similar. Given that the modeled HP would beat all time lower 48 records from 1983, I'm afraid suppression is in store. Not to worry, this is what January and February are for. Down here in south LA, our most recent snow events have occurred with temps right around the freezing mark. I was a child in 1989 but remember snow flurries, people skating on our neighborhood pond and the excitedness of our water running again after returning home from Christmas day mass (all of our pipes were frozen.) Looking back now, we had nearly 9 consecutive nights of freezing temps before the hammer really dropped before Christmas to take us in the single digits. Makes sense now how multi-acre ponds froze solid then vs only thin ice observed on any ponds here during cold snaps since. The 1980's were truly a different time.

[harp]

Seems like the 1983 and 1989 outbreaks were quite dry so we should prepare ourselves for something similar. Given that the modeled HP would beat all time lower 48 records from 1983, I'm afraid suppression is in store. Not to worry, this is what January and February are for. Down here in south LA, our most recent snow events have occurred with temps right around the freezing mark. I was a child in 1989 but remember snow flurries, people skating on our neighborhood pond and the excitedness of our water running again after returning home from Christmas day mass (all of our pipes were frozen.) Looking back now, we had nearly 9 consecutive nights of freezing temps before the hammer really dropped before Christmas to take us in the single digits. Makes sense now how multi-acre ponds froze solid then vs only thin ice observed on any ponds here during cold snaps since. The 1980's were truly a different time.

. We had an inch here in 1989. I’m in Harahan, west of New Orleans. I remember it well.

[Quixotic]

And FWIW, it really hasn’t been sunny here more than a day over the last two months. Don’t know about y’all, but the heavy rains after two extended droughts has trashed my yard. There’s moss and toadstools in my yard.

I was just thinking the same thing, that the sun has been virtually nonexistent here for the past several weeks. We had over an inch of rain in Denison this morning, water was pouring down the slope in my backyard, and my yard is a swamp right now. All the area ponds are full and even overflowing.

Heck of a way to run a La Niña, huh?

You read my mind. So, heavy rains at the end of spring. Drought for six weeks. Heavy ridiculous rains. Drought. Heavy rains for three months. Serious but my yard died over the summer and it’s mud on the side that drains. That’s the kill shot. I have standing ponds of water in the backyard and side. I have to change shoes to take out the trash and rinse legs off when I come in. I think all the grass died and the soil washed into the drainage ditch. I need a consultant.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

If this were to happen as it's showing, due to the size of the HP and how fast it's rushing in, I think there will be some moisture due to the lift it creates while cutting underneath whatever moisture there is. Similar to Jan 2018 here in Houston.

[Texas Snowman]

Seems like the 1983 and 1989 outbreaks were quite dry so we should prepare ourselves for something similar. Given that the modeled HP would beat all time lower 48 records from 1983, I'm afraid suppression is in store. Not to worry, this is what January and February are for. Down here in south LA, our most recent snow events have occurred with temps right around the freezing mark. I was a child in 1989 but remember snow flurries, people skating on our neighborhood pond and the excitedness of our water running again after returning home from Christmas day mass (all of our pipes were frozen.) Looking back now, we had nearly 9 consecutive nights of freezing temps before the hammer really dropped before Christmas to take us in the single digits. Makes sense now how multi-acre ponds froze solid then vs only thin ice observed on any ponds here during cold snaps since. The 1980's were truly a different time.

Actually, we had several inches of snow here along the Red River to begin the December 1983 cold blast. I remember vividly having to go to school the next morning for the last day prior to Christmas break and semester tests (I was a senior at Denison High). We had the most epic snowball fights between classes that day. After that, there were a couple of light disturbances that brought some light snow over the next two weeks, but it was mostly dry.

[Ntxw]

Seems like the 1983 and 1989 outbreaks were quite dry so we should prepare ourselves for something similar. Given that the modeled HP would beat all time lower 48 records from 1983, I'm afraid suppression is in store. Not to worry, this is what January and February are for. Down here in south LA, our most recent snow events have occurred with temps right around the freezing mark. I was a child in 1989 but remember snow flurries, people skating on our neighborhood pond and the excitedness of our water running again after returning home from Christmas day mass (all of our pipes were frozen.) Looking back now, we had nearly 9 consecutive nights of freezing temps before the hammer really dropped before Christmas to take us in the single digits. Makes sense now how multi-acre ponds froze solid then vs only thin ice observed on any ponds here during cold snaps since. The 1980's were truly a different time.

Actually, we had several inches of snow here along the Red River to begin the December 1983 cold blast. I remember vividly having to go to school the next morning for the last day prior to Christmas break and semester tests (I was a senior at Denison High). We had the most epic snowball fights between classes that day. After that, there were a couple of light disturbances that brought some light snow over the next two weeks, but it was mostly dry.

https://twitter.com/lynnburkhead/status/1602836211403456513?s=46&t=NEDYaP8ningzpuOTwZhhsQ

There definitely could be ana-frontal type snows like what happens up north, just not the big systems if it played out that way. But something like that we wouldn't see until up close.

[Itryatgolf]

It definitely looks really cold. Think how cold it could get with snowcover? I personally don't like dry cold but hopefully we will have our opportunity in January or February

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I’ll never forget the Lake Effect snows off Pontchatrain in 1989

That was wild.