Texas Winter 2025-2026

[txtwister78]

Theres definitely still a signal here around the 10th 11th

I think it's gonna be later in January for a better setup though. It's just so far out still

Again what is disturbing me is the lack of moisture the last few weeks

Apparently even with the cold start OKC will make the top 10 warmest Decembers... Right behind last year...

Been dominated by HP thus far. High means dry and so in that regard it's been a typical La Nina pattern unfortunately across Oklahoma and Texas.

[Stratton23]

Probably mid 70’s, I dont think the warmup in early january is going to be nearly as warm as what we just saw, and its a brief mild period as the transition to a colder pattern starts, it takes some time for things to switch

[Brent]

Probably mid 70’s, I dont think the warmup in early january is going to be nearly as warm as what we just saw, and its a brief mild period as the transition to a colder pattern starts, it takes some time for things to switch

Right I mean if it follows the usual pattern it might even be February

It's not gonna happen quick.. unless we can get something big up here earlier to change the pattern but I'm not holding my breath on that with how dry it's been

[Ralph's Weather]

Crazy range in temps across my area right now. Forecasted low is 34. In town it's low 30s and rural it's mid to upper 20s.

[Brent]

GFS still showing the winter storm threat next weekend here

[Stratton23]

After looking at the newest ensemble runs tonight , not only does the pattern look good for potentially winter mischief across the state in mid january, but i do have a thought in my head that this could be a really significant cold air dam bursting event, setup looks like a mix of 2014, 2021, it already looks cold already, but i think the possibility of a severe arctic outbreak with a tanking - EPO is definitely at least in the cards

[Sambucol2024]

After looking at the newest ensemble runs tonight , not only does the pattern look good for potentially winter mischief across the state in mid january, but i do have a thought in my head that this could be a really significant cold air dam bursting event, setup looks like a mix of 2014, 2021, it already looks cold already, but i think the possibility of a severe arctic outbreak with a tanking - EPO is definitely at least in the cards

2021 as in record breaking temps?

[Stratton23]

Sambucol2024 unlikely, that kind of cold is going to be difficult to repeat, but I do think potential is here for an outbreak maybe similar to December 2022, except this time we may have a more active DTJ

[Brent]

I'll say one thing I'd much rather be here than over on the east coast lol

Some people are cancelling winter over there after the last day of model runs haha. I mean they are probably being dramatic but dang

It's definitely sounding like the kind of pattern where we get dumped on with the cold and they torch

[Cpv17]

I'll say one thing I'd much rather be here than over on the east coast lol

Some people are cancelling winter over there after the last day of model runs haha. I mean they are probably being dramatic but dang

It's definitely sounding like the kind of pattern where we get dumped on with the cold and they torch

They had a pretty cold December. They shouldn’t be complaining too much.

[Brent]

I'll say one thing I'd much rather be here than over on the east coast lol

Some people are cancelling winter over there after the last day of model runs haha. I mean they are probably being dramatic but dang

It's definitely sounding like the kind of pattern where we get dumped on with the cold and they torch

They had a pretty cold December. They shouldn’t be complaining too much.

Right we were so warm over Christmas we actually finish in top 10 warmest so whatever lol

They are definitely finishing cold

[wxman22]

FWIW the EURO and CMC are now showing a winter storm setup also.

[Brent]

FWIW the EURO and CMC are now showing a winter storm setup also.

The epo is definitely looking negative towards mid month

[Cpv17]

FWIW the EURO and CMC are now showing a winter storm setup also.

The epo is definitely looking negative towards mid month

I saw someone post a pic of the EPO forecast yesterday on X and it showed it dipping down towards 5 deviations below normal around mid January.

[Brent]

FWIW the EURO and CMC are now showing a winter storm setup also.

The epo is definitely looking negative towards mid month

I saw someone post a pic of the EPO forecast yesterday on X and it showed it dipping down towards 5 deviations below normal around mid January.

Yeah

[Wthrfan]

Theres definitely still a signal here around the 10th 11th

I think it's gonna be later in January for a better setup though. It's just so far out still

Again what is disturbing me is the lack of moisture the last few weeks

Apparently even with the cold start OKC will make the top 10 warmest Decembers... Right behind last year...

Four of the top 10 since 2021...not a good trend.

[Ntxw]

Really need to cash in mid to late month. Early Feb signs a return of Aleutian ridge but very early, far away.

In the meantime, increasing noise of good cold trajectory by mid month.

[snownado]

Believe it or not, despite a roller coaster month temp-wise, December 2025 is still on track for a top 10 warmest at DFW, possibly even tying or beating 2023 for #6...

For perspective, this will be the 3rd consecutive top 10 warmest December for DFW (2024 was #3) and 4th top 10 warmest December this decade (for those who might have forgot, 2021 sits at an extremely comfortable #1).

[Ntxw]

Believe it or not, despite a roller coastet month tempwise, December 2025 is still on track for a top 10 warmest at DFW, possibly even tying or beating 2023 for #6...

For perspective, this will be the 3rd consecutive top 10 warmest December for DFW (2024 was #3) and 4th top 10 warmest December this decade (for those who might have forgot, 2021 sits at a extremely comfortable #1).

And Dec 2022 was saved by a singular dramatic arctic blast but still ended up +2.2F above normal. Had that not happened I have no doubt it would've been another top 10. Going forward, just predict above normal for December, you will be right 95% of the time even if it starts cold. Go back 10+ years and it's still all above normal. For all intents and purposes for us now December is an extended Fall month.

[Brent]

Not sure about Tulsa but OKC is definitely top 10 which is crazy to me. I remember the posts from Arkansas about the record cold week to start never seen before and then it just all went poof like that

Ironically that was the only precip this month too. It's really been awful

We deserve a big flip in January haha