Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Iceresistance]

The cold is coming, its just the typical model biacy of globals trying to push the arctic air back, not going to happen, that cold air is coming straight down all the way to the gulf coast

The models have a tendency to overdo the PNA ridge and erode the cold too quickly. The models also have a bad tendency of underestimating the cold, we saw that in 2021.

[HockeyTx82]

Well it was fun while it lasted, see you all in the Spring thread.

Peace!

[Cpv17]

I’ve been noticing that and even commented on it a few days ago. The flow seems zonal from west to east and not more north to south.

If there was zonal flow, I wouldn’t have just picked up 2.25” of rain this week and you wouldn’t be in line to receive multiple inches of rain over the next few days in south LA. Also, you’re not going to get a zonal flow with a -EPO. Not that hard to figure out.

[Harp.1]

I’ve been noticing that and even commented on it a few days ago. The flow seems zonal from west to east and not more north to south.

If there was zonal flow, I wouldn’t have just picked up 2.25” of rain this week and you wouldn’t be in line to receive multiple inches of rain over the next few days in south LA. Also, you’re not going to get a zonal flow with a -EPO. Not that hard to figure out.

I was just tailgating on what 57 said.

[Cpv17]

I’ve been noticing that and even commented on it a few days ago. The flow seems zonal from west to east and not more north to south.

If there was zonal flow, I wouldn’t have just picked up 2.25” of rain this week and you wouldn’t be in line to receive multiple inches of rain over the next few days in south LA. Also, you’re not going to get a zonal flow with a -EPO. Not that hard to figure out.

I was just tailgating on what 57 said.

57 hates the cold probably more than anyone on here and won’t accept fate till it’s basically staring him in the face and he has no choice but to accept it. 57 is very witty and good with his words. Don’t always take everything he says as gospel. He loves to poke the bear but trust me, he’s not the be-all and end-all like some of y’all think.

[Harp.1]

I’m not trying to cause trouble. I was simply stating my observation.

[DallasAg]

I’ve been noticing that and even commented on it a few days ago. The flow seems zonal from west to east and not more north to south.

If there was zonal flow, I wouldn’t have just picked up 2.25” of rain this week and you wouldn’t be in line to receive multiple inches of rain over the next few days in south LA. Also, you’re not going to get a zonal flow with a -EPO. Not that hard to figure out.

You kinda buried the lead there. 2.25" is terrific, esp since you seem to get missed consistently. Congratulations!

0.42" IMBY in North Dallas - about 2x what I was thinking we'd get, so happy to have that one!

[Portastorm]

Back to discussing the weather, friends, and not our resident meteorologists, moderators, admins, or members. Thank you!

[Cpv17]

I’ve been noticing that and even commented on it a few days ago. The flow seems zonal from west to east and not more north to south.

If there was zonal flow, I wouldn’t have just picked up 2.25” of rain this week and you wouldn’t be in line to receive multiple inches of rain over the next few days in south LA. Also, you’re not going to get a zonal flow with a -EPO. Not that hard to figure out.

You kinda buried the lead there. 2.25" is terrific, esp since you seem to get missed consistently. Congratulations!

0.42" IMBY in North Dallas - about 2x what I was thinking we'd get, so happy to have that one!

Thanks! Yeah, it’s hard for me to get a decent rain sometimes being as far south as I am. My ditches were full this morning and there was standing water all over the place. Don’t think I’ve seen that at my place since last May.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Wxman57 is right and wrong, but it’s on purpose.

Go read his post, he’s talking about next week and I agree with him on next week. He keeps dodging the 15th onward because he knows.

I’ve stated here and on WxInfinity, our timeframe, and that’s weeks 3 and 4 in January. It is coming and it will lock. The week of the 8th will be seasonal to a bit below, except Brent. He may already be in the icebox next week.

[Cpv17]

I’m not trying to cause trouble. I was simply stating my observation.

Just look at the teleconnections and the 500mb flow. I don’t see how you wouldn’t get cold down here with that type of setup.

[Cpv17]

Overnight runs and this morning looks like Wxman is right again!!!! I agree with him, when he says worry you worry… this flipped fairly quickly NO COLD FOR YOU

Don’t fall for the trap! Even Victoria will be cold later this month.

[Sambucol]

Larry Cosgrove this morning:

The two disturbances behind the “2 ABC” system must be watched because with a huge dome of brutally cold air available, two complications may arise. One will be the threat of an ice storm; overrunning is almost assured in a shallow cold air mass with that subtropical high in Hispaniola. One is a sudden drainage of the Arctic regime into the south central states. Keep in mind that in a situation like this, cAk values almost always head south before going east. TX and the lower Mississippi Valley must closely watch events.

Full article:
https://clearskyweather.com/2024/01/05/ ... AvS-3lMgn0

[TropicalTundra]

Models playing smoke and mirrors with the event on Tuesday... Lots of Flip-flopping before we get accurate stuff unfortunately.

[orangeblood]

Wxman57 is right and wrong, but it’s on purpose.

Go read his post, he’s talking about next week and I agree with him on next week. He keeps dodging the 15th onward because he knows.

I’ve stated here and on WxInfinity, our timeframe, and that’s weeks 3 and 4 in January. It is coming and it will lock. The week of the 8th will be seasonal to a bit below, except Brent. He may already be in the icebox next week.

I think we need to be cautious about this locking in past week 2...the MJO will be ramping thru the warm phases around that time. Another scenario could be week 1 & 2 cold, week 3 quick warm up and then late Jan into Feb get reloaded with cold as the MJO swings back around



In the meantime, week 2 looks loaded with potential and nothing zonal about this flow. The only downside to this 500 mb look is the sub trop jet is shut off/moisture maybe an issue.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Wxman57 is right and wrong, but it’s on purpose.

Go read his post, he’s talking about next week and I agree with him on next week. He keeps dodging the 15th onward because he knows.

I’ve stated here and on WxInfinity, our timeframe, and that’s weeks 3 and 4 in January. It is coming and it will lock. The week of the 8th will be seasonal to a bit below, except Brent. He may already be in the icebox next week.

I think we need to be cautious about this locking in past week 2...the MJO will be ramping thru the warm phases around that time. Another scenario could be week 1 & 2 cold, week 3 quick warm up and then late Jan into Feb get reloaded with cold as the MJO swings back around

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/GEFS.png

In the meantime, week 2 looks loaded with potential and nothing zonal about this flow. The only downside to this 500 mb look is the sub trop jet is shut off/moisture maybe an issue.
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1704412800/1705147200-A9mLsOLCy94.png

If it meandered through the warm phases I’d agree. It does not and it’s not amplified.

[Ntxw]

Wxman57 is right and wrong, but it’s on purpose.

Go read his post, he’s talking about next week and I agree with him on next week. He keeps dodging the 15th onward because he knows.

I’ve stated here and on WxInfinity, our timeframe, and that’s weeks 3 and 4 in January. It is coming and it will lock. The week of the 8th will be seasonal to a bit below, except Brent. He may already be in the icebox next week.

I think we need to be cautious about this locking in past week 2...the MJO will be ramping thru the warm phases around that time. Another scenario could be week 1 & 2 cold, week 3 quick warm up and then late Jan into Feb get reloaded with cold as the MJO swings back around

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/GEFS.png

In the meantime, week 2 looks loaded with potential and nothing zonal about this flow. The only downside to this 500 mb look is the sub trop jet is shut off/moisture maybe an issue.
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1704412800/1705147200-A9mLsOLCy94.png

This La Nina-esque (La Nino) transition type pattern is what is making (and keeping) source region cold. How odd to be doing this in a strong El Nino? -PDO perhaps? Somehow we're getting the poleward Pacific ridge (La Nina) and big Atlantic ridge (El Nino) together.

[Cpv17]

Wxman57 is right and wrong, but it’s on purpose.

Go read his post, he’s talking about next week and I agree with him on next week. He keeps dodging the 15th onward because he knows.

I’ve stated here and on WxInfinity, our timeframe, and that’s weeks 3 and 4 in January. It is coming and it will lock. The week of the 8th will be seasonal to a bit below, except Brent. He may already be in the icebox next week.

I think we need to be cautious about this locking in past week 2...the MJO will be ramping thru the warm phases around that time. Another scenario could be week 1 & 2 cold, week 3 quick warm up and then late Jan into Feb get reloaded with cold as the MJO swings back around

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/GEFS.png

In the meantime, week 2 looks loaded with potential and nothing zonal about this flow. The only downside to this 500 mb look is the sub trop jet is shut off/moisture maybe an issue.
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1704412800/1705147200-A9mLsOLCy94.png

This is what I’m most curious about. How long does it last cuz if we can lock it in for an extended amount of time then that will great increase our chances for some wintry weather.

[Ntxw]

Meanwhile for the next system there is a game of chicken going on. Canadian is sticking to it's guns for the northern half of the state and colder, southern outcome against the rest of the model world. Neither is backing down. Either it will take a big "L" or score the coup again.

[Ntxw]

And yes the GFS is still on the train of PV lobe into the west.

FYI Seattle's all time record low is 0. They got a shot