Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[Ntxw]

Since the models have been depressing of late. I wanted to pull something out of the PWC archives from back in 09 to hopefully bring up some spirits!

On December the 22nd at around 7:35AM Portastorm wrote this after an extensive day of model stalking.

As its looking right now and based on the GFS, Euro, and CMC ... the only part of Texas who might see snow for Christmas would be the upper half of the Panhandle. A few flakes might even fall as east as Vernon but that would be it.

For the rest of us, it'll be cold and breezy on Christmas Eve and Christmas with high temps about 10-15 degrees below normal. The 0z CMC still suggests a slight possibility of precip encroaching on southern Texas over the weekend but it remains the outlier.

The longer-range Euro from the 0z run is interesting in that it shows an active Southern jet cranking up. Really for the last two weeks or so the southern jet has not been much of a factor in our weather. That appears about to change. Now if we could only combine that with a cold-enough airmass (Portastorm lapses into dreaming).

On the 21st

To be fair there is a chance that places like Wichita Falls, tx and around the red river there could be some snow, it's not impossible and will probably happen. But saying that I don't see anywhere near 6-10 inches or even 2-4 inches really. Wichita Falls maybe an inch, or so. Red River maybe a dusting, or just flurries. It's possible for the red river and Wichita Falls area to get some, just not to that extreme, or even close. I don't believe abilene, and places that south in West Texas we'll see any, but further to the north possibly.

And a conversion between Portastorm and myself!

Well so far the 0z gfs puts the low still north. Even Oklahoma doesn't look to get too much wintry stuff (except maybe in the far northern sections).

Right you are Ntxw! Both the 0z GFS and Euro show the low moving further north than before. The area of Oklahoma previously thought to get some snow would be essentially dry slotted.

[iorange55]

Since the models have been depressing of late. I wanted to pull something out of the PWC archives from back in 09 to hopefully bring up some spirits!

Haha, that honestly does lift my spirits! It can happen, the models can be wrong. We just need to keep being negativity, it seems to always work.

[WantSnow]

I am always optimistic! Here's hoping for a cold and white christmas

[DonWrk]

That definitely will boost the spirits!

[iorange55]

So far the GFS 00Z is a little bit colder, if you're into grasping at straws.

[Ntxw]

0z also gives hardly anyone snow, maybe the upper half of the panhandle . I've been trying to compare some of the short range modes (RUC) with the GFS/NAM. RUC is super high res so I might just be cherry picking but it has a deeper storm thus far.

[iorange55]

0z also gives hardly anyone snow, maybe the upper half of the panhandle

Lol, I think the 0Z GFS is definitely off there and it seems like the NWS service thinks so, as well.

We'll see what the good ol' Euro has to say.

[Longhornmaniac8]

It seems like the maps (at least the Wundermap using the model data) might be bringing that freezing line closer and closer to Austin. For those of us in Austin, is this a good trend?

[ravyrn]

I have been trying to keep up with the thread, but at work for a good bit today. After catching back up, it doesn't seem these thoughts from NWS Ft Worth has been posted yet, so I thought I'd share them. They seem to be hopping on board the snow train somewhat, though they do mention the amount of uncertainty that remains with the forecast and don't seem to have both legs on the train quite yet.

Issued by The National Weather Service
Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Wed, Dec 21, 2011, 4:00 PM CST

... POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS EVE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS LATE THURSDAY... WITH A COLD BLUSTERY DAY FOLLOWING ON FRIDAY. AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT... SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM GOLDTHWAITE... TO WEATHERFORD... TO GAINESVILLE. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY MORNING... TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. RAIN SATURDAY MORNING MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW IN AREAS AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS PARIS... DALLAS... AND HAMILTON.

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND AND THE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILES WITH WHICH IT WILL INTERACT. IN ADDITION... SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE AMOUNT AND EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT... THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM GOLDTHWAITE... TO WEATHERFORD... TO GAINESVILLE. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECIFY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS... THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THOSE WHO ANTICIPATE TRAVELLING IN AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THIS DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER SITUATION.

[Ntxw]

^ Looks like they solely relied on the Euro, which pretty much had that scenario 12z.

[Brandon8181]

Honestly, I'm really shocked that Fort Worth jumped on, even with the varations in all of the models. They are usually pretty conservative.

I guess after the last few years they said "why not?"...

I hate that I'm in east Texas now (tyler) when I use to be in Sherman...I think we are going to get much less snow here

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Blocking definitely setting up next week. Should be a very interesting middle of January

[Longhornmaniac8]

Not sure whether this has already been posted, but it is a very helpful overview of how to read the four panel setup that PSU's website uses.

http://www.philip-lutzak.com/weather/Me ... -panel.htm

Cheers,
Cameron

[Rgv20]

Not to take attention away of the upcoming Holiday weekend cold weather but tonight's 0zGFS goes bonkers with the cold air forecasting 850mb temperatures up to 27C below normal in NW Canada!!! Whats interesting is that last nights 0z and this morning 12zECMWF Ensemble Control run which goes out to 15 days has also been forecasting NW Canada to go on a deep freeze during the first week of January.

[Ntxw]

Not to take attention to the upcoming Holiday weekend cold weather but tonight's 0zGFS goes bonkers with the cold air forecasting 850mb temperatures up to 27C below normal in NW Canada!!! Whats interesting is that last nights 0z and this morning 12zECMWF Ensemble Control run which goes out to 15 days has also been forecasting NW Canada to go on a deep freeze during the first week of January.

LaLaLand GFS coincides with an omega block in Alaska. Too bad it's so far away no one will believe it

Canadian not favoring so well with Christmas weekend storm.



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[gpsnowman]

I know this is a bit off topic but I was hoping that some of the pro mets or other weather studs on this board could help me remember a unique weatherman from my youth. From 1979 to 1981 I was living in Mt. Laurel New Jersey(just outside of Philly) and even then I was interested in news and weather. At a very young age at that! Anyway, what made this weatherman unique was he used to do the weather in a clown costume or a cowboy costume and he was very funny with his jokes. The news anchors always laughed and so did this 7 year old boy. Does anyone know his name or story? Any info would be greatly appreciated.

[orangeblood]

Blocking definitely setting up next week. Should be a very interesting middle of January

The cold pool should start building across western Canada to start of the new year in response to the stratopheric warming episode over Asia. But there is nothing that guarantees that cold airmass is heading this direction.

I do think you're right about an interesting January coming up... this coming warmth will have it's hands full fighting off that kind of cold. Ice might be more of a story than snow this January!

[Rgv20]

LaLaLand GFS coincides with an omega block in Alaska. Too bad it's so far away no one will believe it

LaLaLand indeed! I should just take wxman57 advise and not look at the models beyond 5 days!

I rather stick to the ensembles regarding long range forecast..

[iorange55]

I can't get details on the Euro, but from what I can tell it looks to be about the same as its previous runs. Perhaps, even a little better? Although, I admit I am not sure on that.


I'll let someone else expand on the Euro.

[Ntxw]

Euro is still firm with it's idea that moisture heads north and snow breaks out from the big country, hill country, to north central Texas. But temps once again on it is marginal.