Texas Winter 2016-2017

[weatherdude1108]

Oh yeah, I am very much looking forward to freezing drizzle!

[Portastorm]

I might have to visit my sister this weekend in San Marcos to see some Freezing Drizzle I'm I right Porta?

YES!!! As you know, my friend, South Central Texas sees more freezing drizzle than any locale in the CONUS. It is our specialty. I've even recommended to the Greater Austin Chamber of Commerce that we have a Freezing Drizzle Festival each January ... but they keep shooting down the idea.

[JayDT]

Seeing some wintry weather on Sunday & Tuesday would make me happy beyond words!!

[SouthFLTropics]

I know all of you folks in Texas are excited about some cold weather...Meanwhile down here in Florida we're dying... We're having a hard time getting lows in the mid 60's each night. A/C is working overtime and my power bill is almost as much as it is in the Summer. Send us some cold air this way after it passes you!!!

SFL

[Brent]

12z Euro has two HARD freezes for Austin coming up this weekend with lows in the mid 20s and high temps for three consecutive days don't climb above 36. Wow.

As exciting as this may be, we gotta remember wxman57's advice about don't trust anything more than three days out at this point.

500mb height pattern is more conducive to storms and cold with the trough coming from our west. We've highlighted this period for awhile now. Good trends Porta, good trends indeed. One thing you can count on is the cold will not slip east. Only threat is warmth from the east flexing back but the cold will likely win out here in TX

I had told some friends last week that this pattern Christmas week had the best potential maybe since i've been here and after the models sort of lost it it seems to be back to my thinking now.

[Ntxw]

12z Euro has two HARD freezes for Austin coming up this weekend with lows in the mid 20s and high temps for three consecutive days don't climb above 36. Wow.

As exciting as this may be, we gotta remember wxman57's advice about don't trust anything more than three days out at this point.

500mb height pattern is more conducive to storms and cold with the trough coming from our west. We've highlighted this period for awhile now. Good trends Porta, good trends indeed. One thing you can count on is the cold will not slip east. Only threat is warmth from the east flexing back but the cold will likely win out here in TX

I had told some friends last week that this pattern Christmas week had the best potential maybe since i've been here and after the models sort of lost it it seems to be back to my thinking now.

Yeah, we haven't had a good trough digging from our west since Feb and March 2015. Last Dec did but there was little cold air to work with. If we can time the early to mid week system, it would be a pretty good snowstorm.

[Rgv20]

I might have to visit my sister this weekend in San Marcos to see some Freezing Drizzle I'm I right Porta?

YES!!! As you know, my friend, South Central Texas sees more freezing drizzle than any locale in the CONUS. It is our specialty. I've even recommended to the Greater Austin Chamber of Commerce that we have a Freezing Drizzle Festival each January ... but they keep shooting down the idea.

In all seriousness tho as you know 6-7 days is an eternity in the model world but the trend is your friend...Also GFS Ensembles are cold so my confidence is growing for a significant cold snap!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The HP doesnt even look that strong but is the cold mainly coming from a lack of modification? Looks like some miserable days ahead for us in SE Tx. Maybe models will surprise us. As of now we need colder air though.

[Texas Snowman]

In all seriousness tho as you know 6-7 days is an eternity in the model world but the trend is your friend...Also GFS Ensembles are cold so my confidence is growing for a significant cold snap!

Yup. Brings to mind the idea of pattern recognition versus model run watching. If memory serves correct, the fellows down at Brownsville NWS were somewhat legendary for their ability to recognize wintertime patterns that would eventually bring devastating freezes to the Rio Grande Valley and it's citrus industry. I've thought a lot about that in the last couple of days as we've swung from "the cold is coming" to "no it's not" and back to "yes it is.' I know that modern technology certainly has it's merits, but it's almost comical to watch the daily anguish/ecstasy that happens amongst us all with each model run.

[Ntxw]

The HP doesnt even look that strong but is the cold mainly coming from a lack of modification? Looks like some miserable days ahead for us in SE Tx. Maybe models will surprise us. As of now we need colder air though.

Upper pattern is favorable for delivering cold air with the west trough ejecting out. What cold there is pours into the trough.

[Brent]

I'd much rather be here in Texas than further east in this pattern that's for sure. I mean nothing's ever guaranteed here for wintry weather, but I like our chances.

[Ntxw]

There is also no upper midwest/lakes 5H low. This allows the base energy to consolidate and be stronger and not a sheared mess to our SW and be our storm.

[JayDT]

NWS Fort Worth just tweeted about next week's storm. They mention "potential precip Tue-Thurs".

[Brent]

[aggiecutter]

NBC 6 Weather ‏@NBC6Weather 3h3 hours ago
Still waiting for more date to come in...BUT..could be interesting next Tuesday with possible freezing rain.

[TheProfessor]

Hey everyone, today have been amazing!!! We were only supposed to get a trace to an inch of snow and I've measured 4 inches of snow now and it's still falling! it's going to be cold here Thursday. 12 degrees as a high(could be colder with snow on the ground) Then I fly back to Texas Thursday night. Looks like I'll be bringing the cold with me! Hopefully I can get yall a great storm early next week!

[Rgv20]

Afternoon Discussion from NWS Corpus

Major weather maker for the extended period will be an arctic front
to arrive Saturday Night/Sunday. Numerical guidance has been very
consistent spreading the boundary south across the area after
midnight with an accompanying 20-30 degree temp drop. We`re still
pretty far out so there will be fluctuations in timing and strength
of the cold intrusion, but the possibility exists to see one of the
coldest airmasses of the past few years Sun-Mon. In the interest of
collaboration, and giving a nod to the uncertainty remaining at this
range, did not go as cold as the MEX numbers or deterministic
Euro/GFS surface temps. However there is potential for parts of the
area to see sub-freezing temps and psbly wind chill advisory
conditions. May also see advisry level winds immediately behind the
front.

[Brent]

FWD AFD:

While Friday and Saturday will both be warm with above average
temperatures, conditions will change rapidly in the wake of the
front. Temperatures across some areas may go from the 60s and 70s
on Saturday afternoon, to 30s and 40s by midnight Sunday with
very blustery conditions. Overnight low temperatures into Sunday
morning will range from the teens along the Red River to low 30s
in the far southeast. With the strong north flow, wind chill
values may fall into the single digits along the Red River to
teens and low 20s elsewhere. In addition, the GFS hints at the
potential for some weak lift along and just behind the front on
Sunday morning. Forecast soundings, however, aren't nearly as
impressive as plan view RH fields would indicate. While normally
this wouldn't be noteworthy, the fact that several of the medium
and long range models forecast an upper trough to swing through
after FROPA is cause enough to monitor this closely as it would be
sufficiently cold for wintry precipitation. Again, this potential
is low and we will monitor this over the next several days.

Sunday looks to be VERY cold and highs will likely struggle to
climb out of the 40s for most areas with the strong cold air
advection. The continued breezy north winds will make for just a
raw day with wind chills in the teens and twenties for a majority
of the day.

The forecast becomes increasingly interesting for the start of
next week. The GFS and ECMWF both have similar upper air patterns
that appear conducive to continued chances for precipitation. With
the cold airmass still in place across much of the area, there may
be some potential for wintry precipitation. Both the ECMWF and GFS
bring a strong upper low across the desert southwest and lift it
northeastward out of west TX and across northwest zones. Very
rapid moisture advection in response to this dynamic upper low
will occur which should result in some slight warming. As strong
lift and likely dynamic cooling occur, there should be enough
instability to generate some showers. Beneath the cold dome
associated with the upper low (wherever it tracks), the profile
would be supportive of a rain-snow mix. At this time, however,
there are still some uncertainties in in the track of this upper
low that yield a low forecast confidence. Stay tuned to later
forecasts for additional details.

[STX Expat]

:uarrow:

And your point would be .... ??

I was agreeing with you about shortwaves being kicked out over Texas from the energy in the SW.

Thanks for clarifying. I didn't understand obviously. That's what years of an Omega Block over Austin has done to me ... I'm now an Omega blockhead.

[weatherdude1108]

I was agreeing with you about shortwaves being kicked out over Texas from the energy in the SW.

Thanks for clarifying. I didn't understand obviously. That's what years of an Omega Block over Austin has done to me ... I'm now an Omega blockhead.

Well, let's hope this doesn't happen again.