Texas Winter 2014-2015

[MississippiWx]

Wxman must be working on the teleconnections in the long term. GFS and Euro want to send the AO back to a solid positive state, along with the EPO going positive. I'm wondering if the models are feeding off the MJO too much in the long term and thus breaking down all of the cold teleconnections as the MJO moves through its warm North American phases.

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF at 168 hours, can I say "McFarland signature" anybody?

[ronyan]

12z Euro has the Arctic high diving straight down the Rockies, TX won't miss out on the cold in that scenario.

[CaptinCrunch]

I love winter, I enjoying the model watching, but as everyone knows the models will change, change and change again before the event unfolds. Yes the cold is coming and yes I believe some winter weather will happen over the New Year holidays for portions of Texas. How much and for how long that's anyone's guess including the models.

Stay tuned and Merry Christmas everyone @ S2K

[gatorcane]

12Z 192 hour ECMWF, core of the artic air misses Texas to the east, though still cold for Texas nonetheless! Wow look how cold that will be for the Eastern CONUS and SE CONUS if that verifies!

[ronyan]

Euro also appears to have a weaker HP in Montana (1043mb vs 1052mb on GFS) so that is probably influencing the "shunting to the East", still very cold in TX.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

:uarrow: Euro also appears to have a weaker HP in Montana so that is probably influencing the "shunting to the East", still very cold in TX.

This. But with that type of an upper level pattern, i have no idea how at least a 1048 HP doesnt build. It has a much smaller HP coming into the US. Im not so sure about this run.

Cross-Polar flow and thats it?!?!? Come on man!

[ronyan]

Yeah the run looks much different in the placement of the coldest air than 0z last night. Need more consistency.

[TheProfessor]

Now I love the cold as much as anyone, but I would prefer it to not be in the teens in dry in North Texas, so I'm hoping we can get wintery precip before it gets too cold, otherwise I'd rather have a cold rain.

[gatorcane]

current wind chills over NE Siberia. That is some extreme cold. With the cross-polar flow the globals are suggesting to commence towards the end of this week, the setup could be there to deliver this extreme cold into North America and down into the CONUS (obviously not as cold as Siberia after the air modifies some but should get COLD for a lot of the lower 48 nonetheless)

[wxman57]

12Z Euro has no big high coming down next week and only a light freeze into Houston and mid 20s Dallas area. Quite different from 12Z GFS. Still too far out to have much confidence in any model.

[Ralph's Weather]

The 5 week CFS snow map shows over a foot of snow north of a line from Del Rio to Marshall with all of Texas besides the southern coast getting some and a good chunk of West Texas and the Panhandle with 40"+. This seems well overdone especially with two different 2'+ weeks out west this month, but some snow is definitely possible throughout the month across at least the northern half of the state.

[Portastorm]

Interesting read from today's Climate Prediction Center's prognostic discussion for both the 6-10 day forecast and 8-14 day forecast:

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST TUE DECEMBER 23 2014

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 29, 2014 - JAN 02, 2015

TODAYS MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND
ALASKA. THE 0Z/6Z GFS AND 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS FEATURE A TROUGH OVER THE
BERING SEA, A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC, AND A 500-HPA TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS ARE INCLUDED IN THE 500-HPA MANUAL BLEND AS THESE
SOLUTIONS CONSISTENTLY INDICATE A CLOSED 500-HPA LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER, THE 12Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH. THE 0Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN IS LIKELY AN OUTLIER SINCE ITS SOLUTION DOES NOT DEPICT THE
POSITIVELY TROUGH OVER THE LOWER 48. MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVED AMONG TODAY'S
ODEL SOLUTIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.

THE HIGH RESOLUTION 6Z GFS AND 0Z ECMWF MODEL RUNS INDICATE A 1048 TO 1052-HPA
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE ROCKIES EARLY
IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES F
BELOW-NORMAL ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS ON DAYS 6 AND 7. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS DUE TO THE
ANOMALOUS TROUGH. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH NEAR
TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR THE NORTHEAST, WHILE A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MORE THAN ONE INCH OF RAINFALL OCCURRING
ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WHERE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST. UPSLOPE FLOW TILTS THE ODDS TOWARDS ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED. A
DRY SIGNAL AMONG PRECIPITATION IS STRONGEST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
ANOMALOUS OFFSHORE FLOW.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA COUPLED WITH RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC ENHANCE ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALASKA.

TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10%
OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8, AND 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8

MODEL OF THE DAY: 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
IMPROVED MODEL AGREEMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AMONG THE 0Z/6Z GFS AND 0Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS AND TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.


8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 31, 2014 - JAN 06, 2015

THE 0Z/6Z GFS AND 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS FEATURE A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC NORTH TO ALASKA, A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL CONUS, AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
CUBA. SPREAD AMONG THE 0Z/6Z GFS AND 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS MODERATE TO
LARGE WITH THE POSITION AND AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE (TROUGH) OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC (WEST-CENTRAL CONUS).

TEMPERATURE TOOLS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT BUT LOWER PROBABILITIES,
COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK, REFLECT THE LARGER SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES, CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND MIDWEST.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ARE DUE TO
ANOMALOUS COLD EARLY IN WEEK-2, WHILE A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE
EAST COAST.

A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL EARLY IN WEEK-2 AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. SOUTHEAST FLOW TILTS THE ODDS TOWARDS ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ALONG THE WEST COAST DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. ALTHOUGH BELOW-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, THE POTENTIAL
THAT UPSLOPE FLOW RETURNS LATER IN WEEK-2 LIMITS THE PROBABILITY.

THE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA INCREASES CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALASKA. TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE A
RIDGE STRENGTHENING ACROSS ALASKA WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN DRIER
CONDITIONS LATER IN WEEK-2.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, AND 60% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 0Z/6Z GFS AND 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS OFFSET BY
MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH

[wxman57]

wxman57 when can we start to believe the model output.

By around Monday or Tuesday of next week. Quite a while.

By the way, how was that snow in Dallas-Ft. Worth today? I knew the model snow algorithm was off for Texas...

[Ralph's Weather]

18Z GFS coming in cold and dry through New Year's with the trough setting up down the Plains and inching east and a strong West Coast ridge. The 18Z PGFS shows the ridge off of the West Coast allowing the trough to dig into the Southwest and the moves it slowly east. In the longer range the GFS starts to build another trough down the Plains in a much less amplified pattern. I am not confident in either, but if I had to choose between the two I would lean more towards the PGFS this cycle though it seems a bit ECMWFy in how it is splitting the SW trough off and pulling the rest of the trough out.

[gpsnowman]

wxman57 when can we start to believe the model output.

By around Monday or Tuesday of next week. Quite a while.

By the way, how was that snow in Dallas-Ft. Worth today? I knew the model snow algorithm was off for Texas...

It was snowing like crazy here, whiteout conditions............at 5000ft.

[orangeblood]

MAJOR Winter Storm progged for News Years Eve Day on the 18Z GFS Parallel, phases most of the energy coming out of the Northern Stream into the Southwest US....building a monster 1058 HP into Colorado early next week. Over the years, I've noticed the models diverge in the 8-10 day period but give us a much better idea within 7 days out (around 168 hr time frame). Very complex pattern with two vastly different solutions for the middle of next week, should have a clearer picture after tomorrows solutions on where that energy will end up - still too early

[gpsnowman]

CBS 11 meteorologist Larry Mowery is on board with at least the cold coming. The seven day does not go out that far but he gave a rare extended temp graph to New Years Day with a high of only 29. He did mention the possibility of little disturbances riding along the jet during this time. Fingers crossed.

[gpsnowman]

On a side note, Happy 25th anniversary for the one below zero reading from December 23, 1989. I was 15 years old and remember it well. Our swimming pool was frozen a foot thick and my brother and I were sliding on it. We started busting the ice into chunks when my father came out of the house screaming at us to stop. His reasoning was the tile would come off with the ice and sure enough it did. Whoops. That fun ended real quick. By Christmas Day it had warmed considerably if memory serves me right.

[TheStormExpert]

12Z ECMWF at 168 hours, can I say "McFarland signature" anybody?

http://i62.tinypic.com/25hocb5.png

All aboard! The Polar Express!!