Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[Kelarie]

Man those PWC forecasters need to break out the crystal ball....give us some hope. Or start chasing the goose and get us OUR SNOW!!!!

Careful or we protesters will start camping outside the front door...and is the PWC going to like having a bunch of crazies camped outside the front door?

[iorange55]

18z NAM looks to be coming in a tad colder through 57hrs. Also seems to show a little bit stronger of a system.

NAM is showing a pretty strong and slow moving system. If you go by the NAM, then you better hope the system passes right over you or south. If it does, I think there could be some nice snow totals.

[Ntxw]

Yep, looks like the snow is confined to an Amarillo-Midland-Abilene-Childress box on the NAM.

Here's the map for 12z, 18z is similar.



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12z GFS



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Canadian (though it does give us some flurries) with the GFS, Euro is a compromise between the NAM and GFS.

[iorange55]

Yep, looks like the snow is confined to an Amarillo-Midland-Abilene-Childress box on the NAM.

Yeah, they get some decent snowfall in this run. I think this is encouraging (might be alone in that) but I just think it'll slide over us, and I think North Central texas will get in on the fun.

It's still a few days out, so the details are not set in stone, at all.

[orangeblood]

Temps are very borderline and the system isn't that dynamic so, believe it or not, elevation might be a big factor in who gets snow or not. We see this quite often with winter storms across North Texas!!

[Ntxw]

Ahh I bet iorange is sitting happy in his hill of an extra 200 ft and hot chocolate!

[iorange55]

Ahh I bet iorange is sitting happy in his hill of an extra 200 ft and hot chocolate!

Lol, I doubt an extra 200ft will help me. There is a place I can hike and gain an extra 50ft.

That will surely make the difference.

[iorange55]

The GFS just doesn't look right to me. Maybe it's me just hoping for the best, but it just looks a bit strange on how it's handling this system.


Dallas/Fort Worth NWS is kind of jumping on board

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 PM CST WED DEC 21 2011

TXZ091>095-100>105-115>119-129>133-141>144-221200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-EASTLAND-ERATH-
HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-
400 PM CST WED DEC 21 2011

...POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS EVE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS LATE THURSDAY...WITH A
COLD BLUSTERY DAY FOLLOWING ON FRIDAY. AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM GOLDTHWAITE...TO WEATHERFORD...TO
GAINESVILLE. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF
OF NORTH TEXAS. RAIN SATURDAY MORNING MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW
IN AREAS AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS PARIS...DALLAS...AND HAMILTON.

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM
THIS WEEKEND AND THE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILES WITH WHICH
IT WILL INTERACT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND
GREATLY ON THE AMOUNT AND EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
GOLDTHWAITE...TO WEATHERFORD...TO GAINESVILLE. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO
EARLY TO SPECIFY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THOSE WHO ANTICIPATE
TRAVELLING IN AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THIS DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER
SITUATION.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

My bad portastorm... Thought it tracked just to the south of Amarillo

[Portastorm]

My bad portastorm... Thought it tracked just to the south of Amarillo

No worries! That is why we're here ... to discuss, debate, and share information about the weather.

By the way ... welcome to Storm2K!

[Ntxw]

18z NAM, model is still the lone outlier regarding heavy snow totals. Shift this another 200 miles south and east, PWC will ship out free snow for the rest of Texas! I've heard some chatter about plans by Occupy Storm2kers of potentially ousting head of state at the center due to recent unfolding events and lack of action!

Where it does snow (if it snows) the system is a slow mover so totals could be hefty out in west Texas.



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[Snowshoe]

Pretty quiet on here! What's the latest on this weekends chances?

[iorange55]

Pretty quiet on here! What's the latest on this weekends chances?

No new model data, yet! Waiting for the all important 0Z runs.

[gpsnowman]

Pretty quiet on here! What's the latest on this weekends chances?

It is quiet. I noticed channel 11 CBS on their 4 o'clock weather dropped temps on Friday and Saturday a few degrees. Still a chance of flurries on Sat. but the temps are looking better. Maybe this storm will have a big surprise for all of us.

[Snowshoe]

I find that every winter storm that comes through that when the pro mets under estimate it and say we won't get much, we usually get more than predicted and when they predict alot, we get less. Lol, hoping for some snow!

[gpsnowman]

The tv mets have to ease their way into these winter storms. Especially here in North Texas. Nothing is ever set in stone with these storms. For example the Feb 4 storm of this year. They eased up to it until it was almost too late and we had several inches to the surprise of everyone. Better to underestimate the overestimate for the sake of not having panic issues with the general public imo.

[Rgv20]

Cant complain on the holiday weekend forecast....highs in the upper 40's with drizzle

..DREAMING OF A CHILLY GRAY AND SOMEWHAT WET CHRISTMAS...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MOVES SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND BECOME LIKELY ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S SATURDAY MORNING EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR
THE COAST. BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING ALL AREAS OF THE VALLEY SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 40S...LOWER 50S NEAR THE COAST...AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKES OVER. GOOD OVERRUNNING OVER SOUTH TEXAS WILL KEEP
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY CLOUDY...COLD...AND WET FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERRUNNING CONTINUES ON CHRISTMAS DAY BUT AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA...RAIN CHANCES DECREASE QUICKLY.
CHRISTMAS DAY WILL CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND COLD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. WENT ABOUT 4 DEGREES OR SO BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
INTO THE MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK OPEN WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE DESERT
SW AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY WITH NO
IMPACT TO THE FORECAST AREA...INSTEAD DRY AIR BEHIND THIS WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY START TO WARM
UP IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND THE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S.

[iorange55]

So far the 00z NAM is looking pretty similar to the 18z NAM. It may be a tad colder, and maybe a little weaker of a system, through 60hrs.

Hmm, I don't think that run went in our favor.

[Ntxw]

So far the 00z NAM is looking pretty similar to the 18z NAM. It may be a tad colder, and maybe a little weaker of a system, through 60hrs.

Hmm, I don't think that run went in our favor.

You know how they say climatology. The trend all season was for cutoffs in the SW and eject pieces. Essentially this is what the model consensus is doing. Given we are only 2-3 days away, if euro doesn't look different tonight, this would be the best solution to forecast. At least the models give us some chances for flurries behind frontal passage, I'm not greedy I'll take it and run for xmas eve!

Edit: Happy winter solstice (tonight-tomorrow)! The darkest and shortest day of the year!

[iorange55]

There is good news! We still have the best part of winter coming up in January! Not that I am giving up completely on this storm, but just reminding myself that winter has just started.

Even the lightest of snow would be nice on Christmas Eve. Here is to hoping we at least get that.