Texas Winter 2010-2011

[TeamPlayersBlue]

ECMWF winter snow storm next week in Texas!

Looks like an El Nino pattern, not a La Nina!

which day? De 8th Wednesday? Im terrible at reading the Euro . I know about the 540 and heights and pressures etc, but i cant exactly see that

[txagwxman]

Everything depends on the timing of the short-wave moving out of the SW. But the ECMWF has 1044+ high and a nice -NAO block over SE Canada.

Should be interesting how this sets up. Dallas to Waco would see snow if this verifies. Even Houston would get it...like the repeat of last year! Wierd.

[Portastorm]

Everything depends on the timing of the short-wave moving out of the SW. But the ECMWF has 1044+ high and a nice -NAO block over SE Canada.

Should be interesting how this sets up. Dallas to Waco would see snow if this verifies. Even Houston would get it...like the repeat of last year! Wierd.

I'm sure Austin will be all rain.

[Ntxw]

Most of the models have cold air coming in and the GFS kind of kills the shortwave as it dies out over the panhandles. What the euro has is that the cold air is already in place before the shortwave arrives and deepens it. How reminiscent of the pattern last February.

[Tireman4]

Woo Hoo....

[Kelarie]

So how far east do you see this going? Thanks.

[HockeyTx82]

Hmm..........

Tornado Watch in East Texas Louisiana. Correct me if I wrong but did we not have a similar setup last year around this time before we started having all of the cold and snow?

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/

Perhaps I am thinking of some other event, but I remember having a bout of bad weather then it got cold............ or am I crazy?

[natlib]

Something tells me that if we are going to have any winter this year it will have to be before the end of the year. La Nina may make it warm and dry for the New Year. I hope the current Euro verifies.

At this point I would settle for any type of precip in West Texas. It is very dry here and the fire danger is dangerous right now.

[vbhoutex]

I have learned over many years to not bet against the Euro. It's not perfect but it doesn't pull the Lucy-Yanking-The-Football trick nearly as often as the GFS.

Speaking of Lucy, has anyone seen her lately? I heard she was going to take an extended vacation in Tahiti with La Nina in place. Someone may need to give her a call about next week. We don't want portastorm left out in the cold with no football to kick!!

[djmikey]

Can someone provide a link to the euro showing the snow for TX? I've searched and can't find anything.

[Ntxw]

Can someone provide a link to the euro showing the snow for TX? I've searched and can't find anything.

There isn't any free site that shows specifics for the Euro regarding where snow is or how much that far out. You can take an educated guess by the pattern, temps, and shortwaves depicted on the public free access.

http://www.ecmwf.int

PSU ewall has some detailed information but only goes out to about 168hrs.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

[TeamPlayersBlue]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

if im reading this correctly, it looks like the Euro is still on board. Looks much more like an el nino scenario rather than a la nina scenario.

[Portastorm]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html

if im reading this correctly, it looks like the Euro is still on board. Looks much more like an el nino scenario rather than a la nina scenario.

Yep, it is still on board for a Texas winter event. However, it still doesn't have support from the Canadian or GFS and remains the outlier. I haven't had time to look at the GFS and/or Euro ensembles and I would be curious to see how both models' operational runs are matching up to the ensembles.

[Kelarie]

Well next Tuesday here in lovely Texarakana they are showing rain and show showers, 60% precip chance. Of course it is still a week out, but it is still fun to dream *grin*

[orangeblood]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html

if im reading this correctly, it looks like the Euro is still on board. Looks much more like an el nino scenario rather than a la nina scenario.

Yep, it is still on board for a Texas winter event. However, it still doesn't have support from the Canadian or GFS and remains the outlier. I haven't had time to look at the GFS and/or Euro ensembles and I would be curious to see how both models' operational runs are matching up to the ensembles.

Portastorm - It appears like the Canadian is coming more in line with the Euro. Although it still doesn't show the cutoff low, it is much more agressive with the energy coming out of the southwest and shows a major winter storm across Oklahoma into North Texas.

[Portastorm]

Good point, orangeblood. I guess I should have written that the Euro doesn't have "firm" support from the others. The Canadian does indeed show a more vigorous closed low but it is further north than what the Euro has. The Canadian scenario would wallop Oklahoma and portions of northeast Texas, I think.

[Ntxw]

Lets see if the Euro continues and binds with the Canadian, also today's EC runs should have better resolution on the PSU site being 168hrs out. GFS is still adamant on killing off the energy in the SW.

Edit: Out to 168hrs Euro doesn't look as vigorous with the SW low. Has it open vs closed as before. Shows some snow breaking out in the panhandle. Also a lot warmer. This looks a lot more like the GFS and Canadian so it's probably the best idea to use right now.

[HockeyTx82]

So are we talking bust at this point or just some slight changes? Of course it being still a week out anything can change................

[Ntxw]

So are we talking bust at this point or just some slight changes? Of course it being still a week out anything can change................

As with most winter storms, it always ends up verifying that the panhandle and Oklahoma receives frozen precip eventually with north Texas on the cusp. This is no different, a slight swing in any which direction would change things. The Canadian is the mid ground between the GFS and Euro so it's the best solution to work with right now.

[wxman57]

So are we talking bust at this point or just some slight changes? Of course it being still a week out anything can change................

More like major changes from yesterday's Euro runs. Euro is trending more like the Canadian runs of late. Sharp trof passage but with the cold air moving in just ahead of the trof axis rather than yesterday's Euro run which had cold air well-entrenched over Texas when the trof moves across. Without having the deep cold air in place prior to the sharp trof passing severely limits any post-frontal precip across Texas.

Nothing is guaranteed yet, though I'd tend to go closer to the Canadian run than what the Euro was forecasting yesterday.