North Texas Winter 08/09. Analogs, Forecast, and Discussions

[CaptinCrunch]

Area forecast looks to be on track for the coming weekend, with temps back into the upper 60's to lower 70's for Friday, and Saturday. NWS office has delayed the next arctic front till late in the day Saturday with Sunday having highs in the upper 30's.

As for your Christmas Eve and Christmas Day fun, temps still looking to be in the mid 50's to lower 60's for both day's under partly cloudy skies. No White Christmas this year folks, Sorry!

[mysterymachinebl]

Latest from the FW NWS:

LOOKING OUT TOWARD CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...BOTH ARE LOOKING DRY. HOWEVER...THE GFS INDICATES ANOTHER BOUT WITH ARCTIC AIR WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS INDICATING A MUCH WARMER SCENARIO. MORE OF THIS LATER.

[CaptinCrunch]

Latest from the FW NWS:

LOOKING OUT TOWARD CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...BOTH ARE LOOKING DRY. HOWEVER...THE GFS INDICATES ANOTHER BOUT WITH ARCTIC AIR WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS INDICATING A MUCH WARMER SCENARIO. MORE OF THIS LATER.

GFS...hahahah...Aaaahahahah...stop it my sides are hurting

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW TX

NEXT COLD FRONT NOW PROGGED IN A BIT QUICKER...WITH A SATURDAY
FROPA INSTEAD OF SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY
APPEARS LIMITED...SO HAVE FORECAST SHOWERS THAT SHOULD CLEAR
NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND FRONT BRINGS
CLEAR SKIES...SO SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS WILL BE QUITE
COLD...WITH SOME TEENS FORECAST.

SOUTH FLOW RETURNS STRONG ON TUESDAY...BUT SHOWERS APPEAR TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF WINTER PRECIP FOR TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER DRY FRONT
PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTH FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING THURSDAY TO BRING A MILD CHRISTMAS WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S TO 60S.

[CaptinCrunch]

Latest from the FW NWS:

LOOKING OUT TOWARD CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...BOTH ARE LOOKING DRY. HOWEVER...THE GFS INDICATES ANOTHER BOUT WITH ARCTIC AIR WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS INDICATING A MUCH WARMER SCENARIO. MORE OF THIS LATER.

GFS...hahahah...Aaaahahahah...stop it my sides are hurting

While I don't hold much stock in the GFS models due to constint flip-flopping, here is the last part of this mornings AFD

GFS HAS CHANGED CONSIDERABLY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND ALSO FROM
EURO...SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS EURO FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. WILL
KEEP TEMPS LOWER THAN EURO...BUT EURO SOLUTION DOES NOT INCLUDE
THE STRONG CHRISTMAS EVE COLD FRONT. SHOULD LATER RUNS OF THE
EURO/GFS MAKE THE COLD FRONT MORE LIKELY...WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOLER THAN THIS FORECAST INDICATES. I
DID UNDERCUT THE EURO FOR MID/LATE WEEK SINCE FOR THE LAST COUPLE
OF WEEKS ALL THE MODELS HAVE HAD PROBLEMS INDICATING STRONG WARM
UPS THAT DO NOT OCCUR.

[mysterymachinebl]

So far, the forecast calls for a pretty mild Christmas. but, after that who knows...


Latest from NWS

FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT. MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT SLIDING DOWN CHRISTMAS EVE...WITH A MUCH
STRONGER FRONT BY NEXT SUNDAY. TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ON TEMP/PRECIP FORECASTS. ECMWF IS WETTER WITH MORE
DRASTIC TEMP SWINGS. CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMP FORECAST BEYOND
TUESDAY MORNING IS QUITE LOW. FOR NOW...HAVE PRIMARILY USED A
BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN TEMPS AND THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ONLY
TWEAKED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

[CaptinCrunch]

Yeah, with forecasted highs in the upper 60's for Christmas Day and even warmer on friday it kinda ruins the Holiday feel....lol

But yes, after that who knows, we'll probley have 4 inches of snow/ice for the Cotton Bowl game and the entire NTX area will shut done till the next thaw.

[ntxweatherwatcher]

Channel 4 forecast freezing rain tonight and tommorrow morning. What do you think the chances are?

[CaptinCrunch]

Channel 4 forecast freezing rain tonight and tommorrow morning. What do you think the chances are?

I don't see any chance of frozen precip for the D/FW area tonight thru Tuesday morning, as the temp will rise through out the day and be above freezing tonight. Our high for today is forecasted to be about 35, and we'll warm from there. With the cloud cover there will be no way for us to cool back down to or below freezing, maybe up around the Arlatex area there could be a brief sleet or freezing rain shower, but not anything that would cause problems.

[vbhoutex]

Yeah, with forecasted highs in the upper 60's for Christmas Day and even warmer on friday it kinda ruins the Holiday feel....lol

But yes, after that who knows, we'll probley have 4 inches of snow/ice for the Cotton Bowl game and the entire NTX area will shut done till the next thaw.

We were in Dallas for the 1978 Cotton Bowl(UH vs ND). BBBBBBBBBBBRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Wind chills were below zero. I'm not sure how much snow there was on the ground, but EVERYTHING was frozen over and the freeways were an absolute nightmare!!! It took us 10 hours to drive back to Houston and it snowed all the way, fortunately not heavily all the way. We sat outside of Corsicana for 4 hours as people tried to get up a big hill on the Interstate!!!! Unfortunately the Cougars lost the game too!!!

[ntxweatherwatcher]

Maybe Evan on Fox 4 was on to something... lol !! Not good for me if it comes true, as I have a appointment in downtown Fort Worth at 8:00am!!


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
Issue Date: 135 PM CST MON DEC 22 2008
Expiration: 600 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2008
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT NORTH OF I-20
AND EAST OF I-35. ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING NORTH OF
I-20 AND EAST OF I-35. ICE MAY ADVERSELY IMPACT THE MORNING
COMMUTE...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY
MID TO LATE MORNING.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

[ntxweatherwatcher]

Even better...

Issued by The National Weather Service
Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
3:29 pm CST, Mon., Dec. 22, 2008

... FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR LIGHT ICING... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY.

THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS FOR THAT PART OF NORTH TEXAS EAST OF A SHERMAN TO CLEBURNE LINE... AND NORTH OF A CLEBURNE TO ATHENS LINE FROM 3 AM UNTIL 9 AM. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AS WARM MOIST AIR SPREADS NORTHWARD OVER COLD ARCTIC AIR AT THE SURFACE. A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON BRIDGES... OVERPASSES... POWER LINES AND OTHER EXPOSED SURFACES UNTIL MID MORNING TUESDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE THE FIRST PLACES THAT ICY SPOTS WILL DEVELOP.

More Information
... FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM TUESDAY MORNING...

.THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS FOR THAT PART OF NORTH TEXAS EAST OF A SHERMAN TO CLEBURNE LINE... AND NORTH OF A CLEBURNE TO ATHENS LINE FROM 3 AM UNTIL 9 AM. WARM MOIST AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE COLD ARCTIC AIR AT THE SURFACE LATER TONIGHT... FORMING LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. A LIGHT ICING IS EXPECTED ON BRIDGES... OVERPASSES... POWER LINES... CARS AND OTHER EXPOSED SURFACES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AROUND MID MORNING TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.

[somethingfunny]

Yeah, where did that come from? The NWS said something about a low-confidence possibility of wintry precip Monday or Tuesday....about a week ago.....and then they backed off. And then with a 6-hour lead time they jumped back on with the imminent freezing rain chance. I've seen tornadoes forecast more accurately.

Oh well. I usually don't wake up until 10 or 11 anyway.

[somethingfunny]

Oh dear.

Grayson County Airport
Lat: 33.73 Lon: -96.67 Elev: 748
Last Update on Dec 23, 6:45 am CST


Overcast with Haze

NULL Humidity: NA
Wind Speed: SE 12 MPH
Barometer: 30.02"
Dewpoint: NA
Visibility: 5.00 mi.
More Local Wx: 3 Day History:

[CaptinCrunch]

Looks as only spotty glazey patches of ice on select overpasses around the area, as here in Southern Tarrant I had no glaze of any sort on cars, bushes, or roads. Current temp out on gauge reads 32 degrees.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
846 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2008

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO EXTEND DURATION OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION
THROUGH 17Z. AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE CWA...MAINLY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. SEVERAL REPORTS OF ICY
ROADS...BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALONG AND EAST
OF I-35 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
HOVER AROUND 32 DEGREES OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW BUT SHOULD WARM ABOVE
FREEZING BY NOON. HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN SPS FOR THE WINTER
PRECIPITATION CONDITIONS.

[josephtwyman]

i WOULD LIKE TO KNOW WHEN WILL THE PATTERN CHANGE FOR A MORE WINTERY SITUATION HERE IN DALLS TEXAS!

[iorange55]

i WOULD LIKE TO KNOW WHEN WILL THE PATTERN CHANGE FOR A MORE WINTERY SITUATION HERE IN DALLS TEXAS!

No idea, hopefully soon.

[CaptinCrunch]

Friday's record high of 83 has been the warmest day of the month, some 29 degrees above the normal daily high of 54. Friday's record day also brought the monthly average temp back up to +1.2 over the normal. With the next couple of day's forecasted to be in the upper 60's to near 70 we should finish off the month about 2+ degrees over the normal monthly average temp.

[ntxweatherwatcher]

When can we expect another artic front? Noaa mentioned something about it next Friday, possibly. I would like to see some snow or sleet, at least!! Hopefully 2009 will be a white winter year!!

[CaptinCrunch]

The problem so this month hasn't been the lack of a few cold days and subfreezing nights, it's been the lack of moisture to work with at those times.

Many folks saw a little bit of rain this morning, but this month has been very dry, we are 2+ inches below normal for precip.