Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Brent]

Was thinking about getting a hotel booking in Waco and now I saw this run and now I worry about if it will even snow there

It's just one run of the NAM, fluctuations in track and intensity can be expected as well as convective dynamics. I know it's been said before your odds are always better being north of the track/cold with room for error.

Lets see what the RGEM and others say before losing hope down that way!

Agree here... you can't get caught up in the individual models too much it will drive you crazy

Also you can cancel most hotels without paying just sayin...

[DFW Stormwatcher]

Yes it is, with many going the 2010 route...GFS and it’s Ensembles are clear outliers at this point

I take it this is bad news for those just north of Austin?

I so identify with your pain. I live east of I35 near Keller, it was less than a 40 mile miss for us. Hopefully y’all get some of the snow.

However, we got the next morning and drove to Eastland and had an amazing time in their 5 inches of snow.The thundersnow definitely made a difference in northern Erath county but the main show was once we got to the top of of the escarpment climb west of Strawn on I20. Hoping for white stuff in my own backyard this time.


Yeah it’s over it seems. Painful but if you can, just drive N. Hurts a lot when you miss by just 40 miles

[orangeblood]

Here’s the latest SREF snow probability charts, big shift north from prior runs

> 1 inch snow


> 6 inch snow


Extremely rare to see these kind of probabilities around here

[Brent]

Here’s the latest SREF snow probability charts, big shift north from prior runs

> 1 inch snow
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/sref-all-members/tx/snow_ge_1/1610053200/1610366400-t5r5GS36T1s.png

> 6 inch snow
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/sref-all-members/tx/snow_ge_6/1610053200/1610366400-nlRgOI5aXhg.png

Extremely rare to see these kind of probabilities around here

It's gonna be a long 2 days

[Ntxw]

Here’s the latest SREF snow probability charts, big shift north from prior runs

> 1 inch snow
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/sref-all-members/tx/snow_ge_1/1610053200/1610366400-t5r5GS36T1s.png

> 6 inch snow
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/sref-all-members/tx/snow_ge_6/1610053200/1610366400-nlRgOI5aXhg.png

Extremely rare to see these kind of probabilities around here

It's gonna be a long 2 days

That refresh button on the model pages though...

[Ntxw]

0z RGEM still in business, so we know the Canadian will be a good run.

[Cerlin]

0z RGEM still in business, so we know the Canadian will be a good run.

https://i.imgur.com/h6sQgMb.png

That RGEM run is just nuts. And it’s persistently nuts too.

[EnnisTx]

The best part of watching and waiting for winter weather events, is remembering that feeling and excitement when I was a kid. Saying that quick prayer to the man upstairs and promising to be good if he'd deliver the snow. You all know that prayer, but it was most likely due to an over indulgence of Grandmas cough syrup !

I still have that same feeling at 50! Oh to be a kid again.

[Ntxw]

0z RGEM still in business, so we know the Canadian will be a good run.

https://i.imgur.com/h6sQgMb.png

That RGEM run is just nuts. And it’s persistently nuts too.

You got to take the totals face value with a grain of salt. It's not purely 10:1 in reality and it is consistently the colder of the bunch like its parent. But it can show the potential if it is a little colder than the warm biased models. Somewhere in the middle usually is the answer and it can guide as to where snow may fall more so than amount.

[Snowman67]

From the NWS Houston Area Forecast Discussion this afternoon.

LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...

The main focus of the long term period continues to be the potential
for snow and rain/snow mix across the northern half of the area this
weekend. While it remains quite a complex and messy forecast,
there`s increasing confidence that portions of SE Texas will receive
their first measurable snowfall in over two years late on Sunday
into early Monday.

[Ntxw]

GFS both old and new for 0z, one snippet.

Old GFS


New GFS

[Texas Snow]

GFS output still driving me crazy but did make a move towards the others. Not huge move but it’s a move.

[Ntxw]

GFS output still driving me crazy but did make a move towards the others. Not huge move but it’s a move.

Slower trend and precip shield it has caved to the others if you look at it for many runs. Thermals are still a ? on it.

[Brent]

GFS output still driving me crazy but did make a move towards the others. Not huge move but it’s a move.

I swear I've heard this song before...

[txtwister78]

GFS definitely not playing along for those who want snow in Dallas area. ICON also continues a track further south. Still outliers but with the NAM coming back down to earth with totals definitely not a good trend. Interested to see what GEM, UKMET and EURO show.

GFS really develops that low off the gulf while other models are not as bullish. If the GFS is right that would really limit snowfall totals. Perhaps that's why FWD was not as bullish on totals?

[Cerlin]

GFS definitely not playing along for those who want snow in Dallas area. ICON also continues a track further south. Still outliers but with the NAM coming back down to earth with totals definitely not a good trend. Interested to see what GEM, UKMET and EURO show.

GFS really develops that low off the gulf while other models are not as bullish. If the GFS is right that would really limit snowfall totals. Perhaps that's why FWD was not as bullish on totals?

For sure, the FWD tends to err on the side of the GFS even when the GFS is an obvious outlier. It really just comes down to surface temperatures. GFS isn’t showing those colder temperatures as a result of that low but really I don’t see how that low could influence temperatures in the way the GFS is suggesting, even if it does develop. In addition, both the GFS and ICON have struggled with snow systems 3 days out. When I was in Norman and we had the snow storm in December, the GFS was showing mostly rain beforehand...and there wasn’t hardly any rain. It missed surface temperatures by about 3 degrees and the ICON was relatively similar, even if it is a little more accurate sniffing some of these trends out. I would put much more stock into the NAM/Euro than the GFS at this point, just based on how well they’ve handled the systems this year.

[Ntxw]

Canadian is a good run, not much different but not unexpected since the RGEM pretty much tells us what it will do.

One thing I do notice is the transition zone has all but disappeared from most of the guidance, so the medium range sleet and stuff is dubious. Either rain or snow. Makes more sense with the colder temps aloft.

[Texas Snow]

GFS definitely not playing along for thosew who want snow in Dallas area. ICON also continues a track further south. Still outliers but with the NAM coming back down to earth with totals definitely not a good trend. Interested to see what GEM, UKMET and EURO show.

GFS really develops that low off the gulf while other models are not as bullish. If the GFS is right that would really limit snowfall totals. Perhaps that's why FWD was not as bullish on totals?

Well perhaps, but based on history, The National Weather Service is just conservative, as they should be for snow in DFW

Honestly knowing their history I was surprised that they put 1 to 2 inches for I 35 this far out. But if you look at the forecast discussions of the last few periods they are slowly moving towards this storm whereas we’ve all been talking about it for a week.

[txtwister78]

GFS definitely not playing along for those who want snow in Dallas area. ICON also continues a track further south. Still outliers but with the NAM coming back down to earth with totals definitely not a good trend. Interested to see what GEM, UKMET and EURO show.

GFS really develops that low off the gulf while other models are not as bullish. If the GFS is right that would really limit snowfall totals. Perhaps that's why FWD was not as bullish on totals?

For sure, the FWD tends to err on the side of the GFS even when the GFS is an obvious outlier. It really just comes down to surface temperatures. GFS isn’t showing those colder temperatures as a result of that low but really I don’t see how that low could influence temperatures in the way the GFS is suggesting, even if it does develop. In addition, both the GFS and ICON have struggled with snow systems 3 days out. When I was in Norman and we had the snow storm in December, the GFS was showing mostly rain beforehand...and there wasn’t hardly any rain. It missed surface temperatures by about 3 degrees and the ICON was relatively similar, even if it is a little more accurate sniffing some of these trends out. I would put much more stock into the NAM/Euro than the GFS at this point, just based on how well they’ve handled the systems this year.

Not so much temps with the low off the gulf. It would be the more dominant (stronger system) and phase in the "northern branch" energy coming out of NM and the Lubbock area. That's why the graphic FWD put out had the heaviest snowfall potential further west and not as much confidence further east toward Dallas. At least that's my read on it. The other models are counting on that not being as strong and with the heavier precip means more snow totals dropping temps a few more degrees than what the GFS shows. The 850 temps are just fine. All about QPF at this point.

BTW definitely not saying Dallas isn't getting anything out of this. What I am saying is the GFS solution is obviously what FWD is weighting more as of now. Obviously that could change.

[Texas Snow]

GFS definitely not playing along for those who want snow in Dallas area. ICON also continues a track further south. Still outliers but with the NAM coming back down to earth with totals definitely not a good trend. Interested to see what GEM, UKMET and EURO show.

GFS really develops that low off the gulf while other models are not as bullish. If the GFS is right that would really limit snowfall totals. Perhaps that's why FWD was not as bullish on totals?

For sure, the FWD tends to err on the side of the GFS even when the GFS is an obvious outlier. It really just comes down to surface temperatures. GFS isn’t showing those colder temperatures as a result of that low but really I don’t see how that low could influence temperatures in the way the GFS is suggesting, even if it does develop. In addition, both the GFS and ICON have struggled with snow systems 3 days out. When I was in Norman and we had the snow storm in December, the GFS was showing mostly rain beforehand...and there wasn’t hardly any rain. It missed surface temperatures by about 3 degrees and the ICON was relatively similar, even if it is a little more accurate sniffing some of these trends out. I would put much more stock into the NAM/Euro than the GFS at this point, just based on how well they’ve handled the systems this year.

Not so much temps with the low off the gulf. It would be the more dominant (stronger system) and phase in the "northern branch" energy coming out of NM and the Lubbock area. That's why the graphic FWD put out had the heaviest snowfall potential further west and not as much confidence further east toward Dallas. At least that's my read on it. The other models are counting on that not being as strong and with the heavier precip means more snow totals dropping temps a few more degrees than what the GFS shows. The 850 temps are just fine. All about QPF at this point.

Perhaps and time will tell. Also consider that is higher terrain and historically colder along the storm track out west and thus less rain to snow transition and more plain snow in that swath and this easier to make higher predictions. We are inside 72 hours so something is going to cave.

My wishcast if you will is the GFS just went north so it will be the one to cave but it think tomorrow will be the day to tell which set of the models cave towards the others. I did have a gulf low screw up our snow in 7th or 8th grade so I know it can happen