Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Portastorm]

Interesting to read the AFD out of EWX this morning as there's some talk of overrunning/upglide developing later this coming weekend after fropa. Perhaps something for us to keep an eye on.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

GFS staying consistent again... cool to cold thru 15 days

[CaptinCrunch]

Temperatures on Thursday will likely be the coolest of the week
as the reinforcing shot of cold air keeps highs in the mid 40s to
mid 50s. A rapid warm up is expected on Friday as upper level
ridging moves across the central part of the CONUS and southwest
flow in the lower levels of the atmosphere helps highs on Friday
soar into the 60s and lower 70s, possibly even mid 70s in our
western counties. Breezy south and southwest winds will occur on
Friday, and we expect some light rain and showers will occur
Thursday night through Friday night as warm air advection occurs
ahead of our next big system arriving on Saturday.

On Saturday, a large upper level disturbance/trough will cross
into the Plains and this will send a strong cold front into the
region Saturday afternoon and night. Breezy west winds ahead of
the front will allow most of the region to warm into the lower and
mid 70s with the exception being along the Red River where the
front will arrive first. Enough lift is expected for showers and
isolated thunderstorms to occur ahead of the front Saturday
through Saturday night. At this time, we will keep a dry forecast
behind the front but continue to watch the potential for some
light winter precip behind the front. The air behind the front may
be too dry for additional precip, but the upper level trough will
still be traversing the region providing some lift.

Bitterly cold temperatures are expected behind the front, and
wind chill readings in the early morning hours on Sunday and
Monday will be in the single digits and teens for a large portion
of North and Central Texas.

[hriverajr]

Come on SE US ridge, expand across the Southern US, become a permanent feature, and then arctic air will never go south again (which is how it should be).

Troll much?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Come on SE US ridge, expand across the Southern US, become a permanent feature, and then arctic air will never go south again (which is how it should be).

Troll much?

Every post.

[lrak]

Maybe in January? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u3kx_yE1mAY LOL look at the dog Date 2-4-11

[Ntxw]

12z GFS looks interesting for some in NTX and the Red River valley. Might see some snow flying Sunday. Not mention cut off ULL coming out

[Portastorm]

Yep ... and really the last three op runs of the GFS are trending ever-so-slightly colder with this weekend's front.

Per my earlier post today, I am also intrigued about the possibility of some light overrunning developing late in the weekend. Subtleties worth watching.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

12z GFS looks interesting for some in NTX and the Red River valley. Might see some snow flying Sunday

If it comes in colder than forecasted, I'd keep an eye on Northern viewing areas of HGX. It wants to keep the precip around post front.

[Ntxw]

12z GFS looks interesting for some in NTX and the Red River valley. Might see some snow flying Sunday

If it comes in colder than forecasted, I'd keep an eye on Northern viewing areas of HGX. It wants to keep the precip around post front.

Big ULL coming out with cold air already in place after

[orangeblood]

GFS trending towards what yesterday's Canadian model was showing....much colder and consolidates the Upper Level Energy over the El Paso Region (as opposed to Baja), bringing in much more moisture. If that energy continues consolidating/trending east, we could have our 1st winter storm of the season around here....Given the pattern, this much more sense than previous runs, showing the UL energy backing southwestward.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

LOL at hours 210-216. SE Ridge tries to come and play and it gets slapped down by another front.

[Portastorm]

Now you guys call me on this if you think I'm trying to pull something out of nothing (several consecutive non winters will do that to a fella) ... but when I see this upper air pattern and know that surface temps at this time will be below freezing for much of Texas ... that energy in the SW is prone to kick out some shortwaves over the state.

[BigB0882]

LOL at hours 210-216. SE Ridge tries to come and play and it gets slapped down by another front.

Good, beat it down for good. I need it to go away so we can have any hope of winter fun over here in SELA. I know it won't be this go round but maybe later in the winter. The last few years it has just sat there and kept the cold to our west and I am sick and tired of it.

[gpsnowman]

I told my daughter it will definitely be cold this weekend. She asked about snow and I told her we will start tracking cold and moisture come Friday after school. She loves this stuff. Things are trending well so maybe a little Sunday surprise is in the works.

[weatherdude1108]

Now you guys call me on this if you think I'm trying to pull something out of nothing (several consecutive non winters will do that to a fella) ... but when I see this upper air pattern and know that surface temps at this time will be below freezing for much of Texas ... that energy in the SW is prone to kick out some shortwaves over the state.

Memories of January 1985 perhaps? Interesting!

[JayDT]

It is so great to see that things are trending better!

[JayDT]

Is it just me or is the high on Sunday looking colder on the GFS?

[Ntxw]

LOL at hours 210-216. SE Ridge tries to come and play and it gets slapped down by another front.

Good, beat it down for good. I need it to go away so we can have any hope of winter fun over here in SELA. I know it won't be this go round but maybe later in the winter. The last few years it has just sat there and kept the cold to our west and I am sick and tired of it.

The NAO/AO has been predominantly positive since winter of 2010-2011. Without the negative NAO the SE conus tends to be victims of the -PNA and SE ridge.

[Brent]

Through Monday:



and then next Wed/Thu: